It was status quo last week concerning my Kentucky Derby Top 10, but that’s far from the case this week.

Last week’s Top 10 mirrored the rankings as they were the week before that. Arabian Knight and Forte are first and second in the same order again this week from last week, but there has been a major upheaval below them, with four newcomers on the Top 10 this week.

Tapit Trice (No. 4), Geaux Rocket Ride (No. 6), Reincarnate (No. 8) and Newgate (No. 10 ... pictured above) debut on the Top 10 this week.

Exiting the Top 10 are Cave Rock (No. 3 last week), Cyclone Mischief (No. 5 last week), Giant Mischief (No. 7 last week) and Arabian Lion (No. 8 last week).

Daily Racing Form’s Brad Free provided a Cave Rock update on Feb. 8. Free reported that the Cave Rock “is galloping daily at Santa Anita, and trainer Bob Baffert said the colt is nearing his first comeback work.”

Hall of Famer Baffert elaborated.

“I’m not pressing him,” Baffert told Free. “I’m not forcing him to do anything. He’s going to start breezing in a couple of weeks. There’s nothing set in stone. He’s going to let me know. I did lose two weeks during the rain. That set me back.”

Without a published workout since Cave Rock finished second as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Nov. 4, it appears to me that time has run out for the double Grade I winner to be ready enough to run in a 1 1/4-mile race on May 6. Hence, he has been removed from my Top 10.

Cyclone Mischief ran a clunker as the 6-5 favorite in Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/16 miles last Saturday (Feb. 4). He finished seventh and lost by nearly 12 lengths. After recording a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in a 5 1/2-length allowance/optional claiming victory at Gulfstream while making his first 2023 start, Cyclone Mischief plummeted to a 63 Beyer in the Holy Bull.

In Arabian Lion’s final 2022 start, he finished last as a 2-5 favorite in the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 27. In his 2023 debut, he again finished last. Arabian Lion ran fourth in last Saturday’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, a race in which Baffert trained all four starters.

While the general impression is that Arabian Lion’s Lewis was a subpar performance, his Beyer Speed Figure of 92 actually is comparable to his two best races so far.

In his first two starts last year, Arabian Lion recorded a 92 Beyer when victorious at Santa Anita on Oct. 9, then a 93 Beyer when second to Giant Mischief at Keeneland on Nov. 4.

Is Arabian Lion’s Beyer ceiling the low 90s? At this point it’s a possibility. It’s also a possibility that Arabian Lion might be a better fit in one-turn races.

Speaking of Giant Mischief, he certainly has not been flattered by Arabian Lion’s form after those two clashed and finished a block in front of the others in that Nov. 4 contest at Keeneland.

After his Nov. 4 race, Giant Mischief lost his next start when the runner-up to Wildatlanticstorm in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on Dec. 17. It’s true that Giant Mischief should not be judged too harshly for his defeat at Remington due to a poor start. Nevertheless, that loss by Giant Mischief, plus Arabian Lion’s subsequent back-to-back defeats, is why I have decided to drop Giant Mischief off my Top 10, at least for now.

Banishing moves up a notch to No. 3 this week after his Sunday (Feb. 5) Fair Grounds bullet drill, five furlongs in 1:01.00, best of 56 at the distance that morning. That work is a very encouraging sign after trainer Brendan Walsh had to scratch the Kentucky-bred Ghostzapper colt from a Fair Grounds allowance/optional claiming race on Jan. 21. Banishing was forced to miss that race due to getting cast in his stall and “requiring sutures to close a hind-leg cut,” according to T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News.

Walsh reported last Sunday that Banishing “is on target” to run in an undercard race when Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes is contested on Feb. 18.

In Banishing’s most recent appearance under silks, he won a Fair Grounds first-level allowance/optional claiming race by 8 1/2 lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 26. That produced a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

I believe Banishing is a very serious 3-year-old, as evidenced by how I have him ranked on my Top 10. Thornton has him at No. 5 on his TDN Derby Top 12, behind Arabian Knight at No. 1, Forte at No. 2, Tapit Trice at No. 3 and Rocket Can at No. 4.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Arabian Knight
2. Forte
3. Banishing
4. Tapit Trice
5. Instant Coffee
6. Geaux Rocket Ride
7. Hejazi
8. Reincarnate
9. Verifying
10. Newgate

Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):

Angel of Empire, Arctic Arrogance, Blazing Sevens, Carmel Road, Cave Rock, Curly Jack, Damon’s Mound, Disarm, Dubyuhnell, Eyeing Clover, Faustin, General Jim, Gun Pilot, Hard to Figure, Harlocap, Hit Show, Kingsbarns, Litigate, National Treasure, Please Be Nice, Practical Move, Red Route One, Rocket Can, Shopper’s Revenge, Worcester, Victory Formation.

HORSE-BY-HORSE LOOK AT TOP 10 NEWCOMERS

NO. 4 TAPIT TRICE: A $1.3 million auction purchase, Tapit Trice looks like he is going to be a major player on the Kentucky Derby trail. He drew off in the stretch to win a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race by eight lengths last Saturday (Feb. 4) at Gulfstream in his third career start.

Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Tapit Trice ran third when unveiled in a one-mile maiden special weight race at Aqueduct on Nov. 6. That was followed by a neck victory on a muddy track in another one-mile maiden special weight race Dec. 17 at the Big A.

Check out Tapit Trice’s improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern. He recorded a 73 at first asking, then an 87, then a 92 last Saturday.

NO. 6 GEAUX ROCKET RIDE: Richard Mandella trains the Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt.

I doubt that you will find Geaux Rocket Ride ranked so high on anybody else’s current Kentucky Derby list. That’s okay. It was the first week in February of 2019 that I decided to put a Mandella-trained maiden winner on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. That colt, Omaha Beach, would go on to show that I was far from being off base to so.

“New on my Top 10 this week is Omaha Beach, who found a cure for second-itis in a big way at Santa Anita last Saturday,” I wrote in early February of 2019 for Xpresbet.com. “The War Front colt, trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, registered a resounding nine-length win in a seven-furlong maiden special weight race contested on a sloppy track. Omaha Beach’s final time was an excellent 1:21.02 after he carved out fractions of :21.75, :43.74 and 1:08.24. He posted a 90 Beyer to equal the figure earned by Mucho Gusto later in the card when he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.”

Omaha Beach went on to win a division of the Grade II Rebel Stakes and Grade I Arkansas Derby. He became the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, Omaha Beach was scratched from the Run for the Roses because of an entrapped epiglottis, which required surgery to address the issue.

After missing the Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach raced three more times, all in 2019, before going to stud. He won the Grade I Santa Anita Sprint Championship vs. his elders, finished second to Spun to Run in the Grade I BC Sprint, then won the Grade I Malibu Stakes.

I was so impressed by Omaha Beach’s maiden win at Santa Anita in early February of 2019 that I put the $625,000 auction purchase on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 off that performance. Three years later, I was so impressed by Geaux Rocket Ride’s maiden victory at Santa Anita in late January that I’m putting the $350,000 auction purchase on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 off that performance.

Ridden by Flavien Prat, Geaux Rocket Ride showed early zip to lead while clicking off fractions of :22.00, :44.62 and :57.16 en route to a 5 3/4-length victory. His final time for six furlongs was a sharp 1:09.52.

Geaux Rocket Ride was credited with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, which was better than Omaha Beach’s 90 in his maiden victory.

I absolutely loved what I saw from Geaux Rocket Ride as he bounded down the lane while increasing his lead. I had made him 6-1 on the morning line. His final odds turned out to be 6-1. Finishing second was Sonoran, the 1-2 favorite from the Baffert barn.

While Geaux Rocket Ride was a first-time starter on Jan. 29, Sonoran did go into that sprint with a race under his belt, having finished second at Santa Anita on Dec. 26 to the promising Baffert-trained Faustin.

After Faustin’s Dec. 26 race, he finished second in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 29. The San Vicente was won by Havnameltdown, trained by (who else?) Baffert.

Following Omaha Beach’s maiden win, a huge indication to me that he might be really good was the fact that Mandella stepped him up in class to graded stakes company in his next start, the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Similarly, a huge indication to me that Geaux Rocket Ride might be really good is that Mandella plans to step him up in class to graded stakes company in his next start, the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 4.

Geaux Rocket Ride had recorded some quick workout times prior to his debut, but he always did so easily, according to Mandella.

“His works were all easy and in hand,” Mandella said to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen. “He jumped up and did that [win his debut] without a lot of strong preparation. He did it very professionally. I thought he was very impressive.”

I am eager to see what Geaux Rocket Ride might do in the San Felipe after he most likely will get stronger preparation in the lead-up to that 1 1/16-mile race.

Mandella sent out Forbidden Kingdom to win last year’s San Felipe by 5 3/4 lengths. I, for one, won’t be surprised if Mandella wins this year’s San Felipe with Geaux Rocket Ride.

To be perfectly frank, one of the reasons I can’t help rooting for Geaux Rocket Ride is I think it would be terrific if such an accomplished trainer and classy person as Mandella were to finally win a Kentucky Derby this year. I thought it might happen with Omaha Beach, but it wasn’t to meant be. If Geaux Rocket Ride finds somehow himself draped in roses on the first Saturday in May, I’d join the large number of people who would be happy for his 72-year-old trainer.

NO. 8 REINCARNATE: After losing his first three starts, Reincarnate has won two in a row for Baffert.

In Reincarnate’s first start of 2023, he was a game neck winner of Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes at one mile on Jan. 8. That effort looks even better now after runner-up Newgate returned to win Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles last Saturday (Feb. 4).

An $850,000 auction purchase, Reincarnate is by Good Magic, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2017. Good Magic ran second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby to Justify, who swept the Triple Crown that year.

NO. 10 NEWGATE: As mentioned earlier, Newgate won last Saturday’s Lewis. It was his first stakes win in six lifetime starts.

I thought big things might be in store for Newgate when he kicked off his racing career at Del Mar last summer with a 3 1/2-length victory in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race on July 30. But then he lost all three of his remaining starts at 2.

In Newgate’s first start at 3, he lost again. But it was a big step in the right direction. He finished a close second in the Sham when ridden in a race for the first time by the renowned Frankie Dettori.

Prior to the Sham, Newgate had been hustled early in his races by Hall of Famer John Velazquez. But in the Sham, Newgate’s running style was different. Evidently, Dettori decided to see just how effective the colt might be when coming from off the pace. In the Sham, Newgate was last early in the field of five while being patiently handled by Dettori before coming on to lose by a neck.

Early in last Saturday’s Lewis, Newgate again was unhurried early by Dettori. After trailing early in the field of four, Newgate came on to win by a neck.

One of the reasons Dettori gave for plying his trade at Santa Anita this winter was his hope to hook up with a potential Kentucky Derby starter. Perhaps he has done just that with Newgate, whose Beyer Speed Figures when ridden by Dettori have been a 95 in the Sham and a 100 in the Lewis. The colt’s previous top Beyer had been an 87.

By the way, Dettori has ridden in the Kentucky Derby only one time. He finished sixth aboard China Visit in 2000. He is planning to continue riding through the year’s Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4 and then retire from the saddle, which would bring an end to what has been nothing less than a superb career.

While Newgate’s 100 Beyer in the Lewis does not look out of whack vis-a-vis his 95 Beyer in the Sham, I can’t help wondering if that figure is legit. That’s because when he prevailed by only a neck over Hard to Figure, who likewise recorded a 100 Beyer. It was a 20-point jump from Hard to Figure’s previous top figure. Is Hard to Figure really that much faster now than he was before the Lewis? Maybe. Maybe not.

As for this week’s Top 10, I gave a slight nod for the No. 10 spot to Newgate. Practical Move, Red Route One and Victory Formation received serious consideration.

SAM F. DAVIS STAKES SELECTIONS

A dozen are entered in Tampa Bay Downs’ Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles this Saturday (Feb. 11).

Prairie Hawk has won two of three and sports improving Beyer Speed Figures (51, 70, 80). Best of all, he is two for two at Tampa.

Dubyuhnell makes his first start since winning Aqueduct’s Grade II Remsen Stakes on a sloppy track Dec. 3. His 90 Beyer in the Remsen is the top in this race.

Champions Dream comes off a narrow loss in Tampa’s Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs on Jan. 14 in his first start of the year. Now he has a 2023 race under his belt and a race over the track.

Classic Legacy is another with improving Beyers (59, 68 71). From the red-hot barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, Classic Legacy makes his first start since winning a seven-furlong maiden special weight race by 3 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track Dec. 3 at Aqueduct.

My selections for the Sam F. Davis Stakes are below:

1. Prairie Hawk
2. Dubyuhnell
3. Champions Dream
4. Classic Legacy

WITHERS STAKES SELECTIONS

This race was postponed a week due to extremely cold weather at Aqueduct last Saturday (Feb. 4). A half-dozen are entered in the rescheduled Withers, which will be contested at 1 1/8 miles.

As I wrote for Xpressbet.com last week, I will be surprised if the winner isn’t either Arctic Arrogance or Hit Show.

Arctic Arrogance ran second in Aqueduct’s Jerome Stakes at one mile on a wet track listed as good Jan. 7. The New York-bred Frosted colt also was the runner-up in the Grade II Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on a sloppy track Dec. 3 at the Big A for trainer Linda Rice. Arctic Arrogance will be racing with blinkers for the first time in the Withers.

Hit Show was scratched from the Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 28 (probably a good move in light of Arabian Knight’s impressive 5 1/2-length victory) to run instead in the Withers for trainer Brad Cox.

A Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt, Hit Show has won two of three career starts. He’s coming off a 3 1/2-length win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race on Dec. 17 at Oaklawn.

Below are my selections for the rescheduled Withers Stakes:

1. Arctic Arrogance
2. Hit Show
3. Ninetyprcentmaddie
4. General Banker

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING

Forte has been tabbed as the 8-1 morning-line favorite among individual horses in Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which opens for betting this week at noon ET Friday (Feb. 10) and closes at 6 p.m. ET Sunday (Feb. 12).

Pool 4 of the KDFW offers betting on 39 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings” option. In past years, the KDFW had 23 or 24 individual horses.

The “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings” is listed with the lowest morning-line odds at 2-1 in Pool 4 of the KDFW.

Horses currently trained by Bob Baffert are not among the 39 individual horses because Baffert has been banned from the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This does add a bunch of quality 3-year-olds trained by Baffert to the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings options,” such as four horses on my Top 10 this week: No. 1 Arabian Knight, No. 7 Hejazi, No. 8 Reincarnate and No. 10 Newgate.

Horses running for a trainer suspended by Churchill Downs are not eligible to earn qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby. During a two-day hearing held in Louisville on Feb. 2-3, Baffert sought an injunction with respect to the suspension imposed on him by Churchill. The judge in the case is expected to issue a ruling sometime this month. If the judge denies Baffert’s request for injunctive relief, the only way for horses currently trained by him to earn Kentucky Derby points will be for them to be transferred to a different trainer by the end of February, an earlier deadline than had been in effect last year.

Two Baffert trainees, Taiba and Messier, did run in last year’s Kentucky Derby after being transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen.

In terms of future wagering, my advice is that you generally should be trying to find a horse or horses at generous odds, not a horse like Forte at odds of 8-1 or thereabouts. You should always bear in mind that the KDFW has no refunds.

Tapit Trice’s victory in a first-level allowance/optional claiming race at one mile last Saturday (Feb. 4) at Gulfstream Park was marvelous, particularly in the way he turned a half-length lead at the eighth pole into an eight-length advantage at the finish. But he is listed at 20-1 on Mike Battaglia’s morning line for KDFW Pool 4. Is Tapit Trice worth betting at that kind of price? I don’t think so. Too much can happen when the May 6 Kentucky Derby is still so many weeks away.

While I will not be betting Tapit Trice at a price of 20-1 or so in KDFW Pool 4, it will be just fine with me if he wins the Kentucky Derby. That’s because he was not included among the individual horses in Pool 1 or Pool 2. I made a substantial wager on the “all other colts and geldings” option in those two pools, which closed on Nov. 3 and Nov. 27, respectively. The “all other colts and geldings” option closed at 4-5 in both Pool 1 and Pool 2.

As for Pool 4 this week, I will be keeping an eye on Geaux Rocket Ride’s odds once wagering commences. I think it’s interesting that off his debut win, Geaux Rocket Ride has been included among the 39 individual horses. I also think it’s interesting that he is 40-1 rather than a higher price on the morning line. This constitutes a fair amount of respect for a horse who has raced just once.

If Geaux Rocket Ride does end up being around 40-1, I probably will put some money on him, especially if he does happen to be quite a lot higher than 40-1, which I think is a possibility.

The undefeated filly Hoosier Philly also is one of the 39 individual horses in Pool 4. She’s 50-1 on the morning line. Will Hoosier Philly run in the Kentucky Derby instead of the Kentucky Oaks? Probably not. But considering how freakishly talented she has looked while winning all three of her starts to date and the way that trainer Tom Amoss has raved about her, I’m inclined to roll the dice and put a few -- and I mean just a few -- bucks on her at a big price.

By the way, three notable absentees from the 39 individual horses in KDFW Pool 4 are the highly regarded Loggins (16-1 in Pool 3), Extra Anejo (18-1 in Pool 3) and Signator (34-1 in Pool 3).

According to a Feb. 7 tweet from co-owner West Point Thoroughbreds, “Signator unfortunately needs 60 days out of training and is off the [Kentucky] Derby trail.”

Before you make any bets in Pool 4 this week, you might want to monitor what happens in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday (Feb. 11).

Below are the morning-line odds for 2023 KDFW Pool 4:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Angel of Empire (80-1)
2. Arctic Arrogance (80-1)
3. Banishing (30-1)
4. Blazing Sevens (20-1)
5. Confidence Game (50-1)
6. Curly Jack (60-1)
7. Cyclone Mischief (40-1)
8. Determinedly (40-1)
9. Disarm (60-1)
10. Dubyuhnell (30-1)
11. Eyeing Cover (30-1)
12. First Defender (50-1)
13. Forte (8-1)
14. Frosted Depature (30-1)
15. Funstastic Again (30-1)
16. Game Change (50-1)
17. Geaux Rocket Ride (40-1)
18. General Jim (50-1)
19. Giant Mischief (30-1)
20. Gulfport (80-1)
21. Gun Pilot (50-1)
22. Hit Show (60-1)
23. Hoosier Philly (40-1)
24. Instant Coffee (12-1)
25. Jace’s Road (80-1)
26. Kingsbarns (50-1)
27. Litigate (50-1)
28. Mage (50-1)
29. Practical Move (50-1)
30. Red Route One (40-1)
31. Rocket Can (30-1)
32. Shadow Dragon (60-1)
33. Shopper’s Revenge (50-1)
34. Slip Mohoney (50-1)
35. Tapit Trice (20-1)
36. Tapit’s Conquest (50-1)
37. Two Phil’s (50-1)
38. Verifying (15-1)
39. Victory Formation (20-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings (2-1)

THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 313 Art Collector (20)
2. 253 Taiba (9)
3. 169 Defunded
4. 164 Country Grammer (3)
5. 132 Atone
6. 127 Cody’s Wish
7. 110 Nest
8. 79 Elite Power
9. 67 Clairiere
10. 59 Gunite

THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 311 Forte (18)
2. 300 Arabian Knight (13)
3. 218 Instant Coffee (1)
3. 153 Cave Rock
5. 136 Newgate
6. 102 Rocket Can
7. 99 Victory Formation
7. 87 Reincarnate
9. 76 Blazing Sevens
10. 48 Havnameltdown