The Lead:
Northern California's annual Triple Crown tryout will be Saturday when Golden Gate Fields hosts the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby. The 1-1/8 miles test on the Tapeta includes an automatic berth into the Preakness Stakes for its winner as well as Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top 5 finishers.

​Field Depth:
PASSARANDO is the lone stakes winner in the field of 8, which also includes stakes-placed CHASE THE CHAOS. Half the field will be making stakes debuts, so it's a difficult read in terms of class.

Pace:
For 1-1/8 miles on a synthetic surface, I'm not sure you could have what looks to be a quicker pace. HARCYN has never been headed in 2 sprints, NULLARBAR exits a Santa Anita dirt sprint wire job, and a least 3 others want to be pressing the pace. If you win this up front, you'll have earned it. I'm leaning to closers.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

GILMORE: Bob Baffert looks to defend his title in the El Camino Real Derby and has run roughshod over the 2023 class in Southern California. Expect this one to press the pace from the rail, and note sire Twirling Candy is super-versatile, so the surface change from dirt likely won't be the difference maker. Damside pedigree is a bit light for 9F, the only caution.

CHASE THE CHAOS: Rapidly improving runner exits his career-best race and has followed it up with sharper workouts on the clock than prior, a sign of potential further advance. Late-runner gets a great set-up and favorable post to save ground.

HAPPY DOES: 5 straight miles and 7 races on the resume will have him fit for the task. Longshot should be passing some horses late with his style.

PASSARANDO: Surface ace is 5: 3-2-0 on Tapeta and gets a dynamite pace set-up in front of him. Not certain he's made a major improvement since stretching out to 2 turns, but he'll get every chance to run his best here.

HARCYN: The real X-factor after 2 dominant sprint wins when leading throughout. It's a big reach to add 3 furlongs at once, but son of top miler Goldencents is from long-winded female family that includes 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo and 2007 Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago. Would have liked to see more than a single, 5F workout prior to this for the challenge that awaits.

IN HONOR OF AUTISM: After 5 sprints all below the allowance class, it's hard to imagine he's more than an early pace presence against this crew. Leading GGF trainer Jonathan Wong merits at least a second look, however.

SEA DOG: A single win in 5 starts came when able to dictate terms wire-to-wire and that's just not going to happen here. No lead, no pass is almost a certain bad situation in any race at any level.

​NULLARBOR: The 'other' Baffert entrant here is by excellent synthetic sire Candy Ride and should handle the surface. Distance is a different debate from an outside draw and with only a maiden claiming sprint win on his resume. Likely will have to deal with ground loss given his style and post.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CHASE THE CHAOS is blossoming and has the right pace set-up for a late run.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HAPPY DOES isn't flashy, but lit the superfecta at 32-1 in the Gold Rush and should be running some at the end.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win CHASE THE CHAOS.