by Jeremy Plonk
February 16, 2023
The Lead:
Through the first 6 weeks of 2023, our Xpressbet Race of the Week betting strategies have netted $2,192 in returns for $600 invested -- including 3 winners returning $1242, $430 and another $520 a week ago. Let's keep the cash boulder rolling with Saturday's co-featured Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel Park, which shares the marquee with the Grade 3 General George. It's a traditional President's Day holiday stakes fare near the nation's capital.
Field Depth:
All 8 fillies/mares seek their first graded stakes victory. PASS THE CHAMPAGNE is Grade 1-placed, UNION LAKE is Grade 2-placed and the listed stakes winners include PRODIGY DOLL, SWAYIN TO AND FRO and FILLE D'ESPRIT. When eliminating the restricted 3-year-old races, SWAYIN TO AND FRO and FILLE D'ESPRIT have consistently kept the strongest company lines.
Pace:
For a graded stakes sprint, there's not as much early speed as you'd expect. SWAYIN TO AND FRO was in front of LISVOLVIN throughout in their common matchup and those 2 figure to be the pace players in the Fritchie. UNION LAKE probably presses the pace but arguably could get into the mix if hard-sent. This race looks like it can be taken by the early speed.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
PRODIGY DOLL: Fifth in this race last year at 42-1 odds, she rallied to win an allowance prep Jan. 7 against MOODY WOMAN, who will be one of the longest shots in this race. She hasn't hit the board in 2 tries at the distance and the pace doesn't look fast to set her up.
LISCOLVIN: No match late for SWAYIN TO AND FRO in November's Safely Kept Stakes, she's been freshened since then and could be a bit more eager early due to that inactivity. The only time she's raced off a layoff before, she was runner-up at 3-5 odds in a maiden race she was supposed to win. Both career wins came at Delaware, but her local try here was positive.
PASS THE CHAMPAGNE: NY and FL-based trainer George Weaver ships this one in. She rose to prominence rapidly as a 3YO in 2021 with a hard-luck second to eventual champion Malathaat in the Ashland at Keeneland. But since going awry when 12th in the Kentucky Oaks, she raced only once in all of 2022 and exits a runner-up at Tampa Bay Downs routing. Should be an underlay price trying to beat elder stakes runners for the first time and doing so in a sprint division at which she's not accustomed. Can win, but I'll look elsewhere.
QUIET IMAGINATION: 1-for-15 at Laurel and 3-for-28 lifetime puts this one on the tail end of options.
SWAYIN TO AND FRO: Filly has big chance to take them wire-to-wire if she runs to her best. Regressed big-time when runner-up to FILLE D'ESPRIT last out in the What a Summer Stakes. Got caught up between horses in a duel and had to work the entire trip. Jockey Whitacre replaced and new pilot Monterrey should get one instruction -- send! The caution is that trainer Mario Serey Jr. has been cold in 2023, which may explain her last loss at 4-5. But the barn did pop a $31 winner Feb. 10 at Laurel that could signal a return to warmth.
UNION LAKE: John Terranova trainee invades from NY while trying elder stakes fillies and mares for the first time. She was third in Saratoga's Grade 2 Prioress vs. 3YOs last summer and has beaten elder allowance foes. Wins at 6 and 6-1/2 furlongs should put her near the front here and she'll be tough if she can handle the 7F and the Laurel surface for the first time,
MOODY WOMAN: Former claimer is 0-5 lifetime in stakes and 1-for-6 at the Fritchie's distance. Better options.
FILLE D'ESPIRT: 7-year-old mare romped late past SWAYIN TO AND FRO last time at 6 furlongs, so it would seem natural a repeat of that effort over 7 furlongs makes the same result likely. But note since starting her career 8-for-11, this mare has only 1 win following her last 4 victories. As she's gotten older, she's had a harder time pairing up major efforts. Respect her best form, no doubt, but the feeling here is she may 'bounce' or regress this time.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
FILLE D'ESPRIT is 12-for-13 in the superfecta since running third in this race last year. Even if she 'bounces' a bit off her last win, a top-4 finish feels comfortable.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
LISCOLVIN will be easily the biggest price of the few speed horses in this race and could carry her gas far enough to hang for a bottom share of the purse.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win SWAYIN TO AND FRO. $10 exacta box SWAYIN TO AND FRO with UNION LAKE ($20).