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Jon White: Kentucky Derby Top 10 Newcomers, Plus Rebel Picks

by Jon White

February 23, 2023

While Arabian Knight and Forte remain No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week has two newcomers.

Sparkling recent maiden winner Skinner enters the Top 10 this week at No. 8. Risen Star Stakes winner Angel of Empire debuts at No. 10.

Skinner was credited with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure for his maiden graduation in a mile contest. Angel of Empire received a preliminary Beyer of 87 for his triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star, a figure that subsequently was boosted a bit to 89.

One of the reasons that I have Skinner ranked a couple of notches above Angel of Empire on the Top 10 is Skinner’s higher 95 Beyer in a two-turn race vis-a-vis Angel of Empire’s 89 in a two-turn contest.

Not only was Skinner’s performance commendable quantitatively with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, I came away impressed visually in terms of the gusto Skinner exhibited in the lane to win going away by a widening 3 1/4 lengths.

I’ve had my eye on Skinner ever since he kicked off his racing career at Del Mar last summer on July 24 in a five-furlong maiden special weight race. Last early in the field of 10, he finished fifth. Havnameltdown, backed down to 6-5 favoritism for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, won in front-running fashion by 2 1/4 lengths.

Keep in mind that was only a five-furlong sprint. Also keep in mind that Skinner was facing a quality sprinter in Havnameltdown.

Since that July 24 maiden race at Del Mar, Havnameltdown has won three of four starts, all in graded stakes races sprinting. His only defeat came when he finished second to Cave Rock in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs.

Skinner never threatened in his debut, but he did come home with good energy as a 36-1 longshot. After being 13 lengths behind on the backstretch, he found himself seven lengths behind Havnameltdown at the finish.

But the main reason Skinner made my horses-to-watch list is what he did AFTER the race was over. I noted that he “galloped out past the winner after the finish.”

Because that race happened so long ago, I watched the video of it again just to make sure that I wasn’t smoking my socks as to what Skinner did after the finish. Sure enough, he ran right by Havnameltdown on the clubhouse turn while no one else was close to the pair.

Owned by Lee and Susan Searing’s C R K Stable and trained by John Shirreffs, Skinner followed his debut by running in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs as a maiden. For the Searings and Shirreffs to think enough of the Kentucky-bred Curlin colt to run him in that race when he was a maiden says a lot. These are not pie-in-the-sky people.

Skinner managed to finish third at 13-1 to Cave Rock and Havnameltdown in the Del Mar Futurity. After that, Skinner again competed at the Grade I level as a maiden. But this time he finished far back in sixth in Santa Anita’s American Pharoah Stakes on Oct. 8. Skinner would not race again until his 2023 debut on Feb. 12.

Between Skinner’s Oct. 8 and Feb. 12 races, he appears to have come a long way under Shirreffs’ skillful horsemanship.

“We spent a lot of time taking him to the gate, standing him, doing a lot of little things just to build his confidence,” Shirreffs told Daily Racing Form’s Brad Free.

The time and effort paid off on Feb. 12.

“Skinner broke well, relaxed in sixth position, took dirt, rallied outside and powered home,” Free wrote.

Shirreffs said that Skinner “did everything right” that day.

Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 4 is under consideration for Skinner.

“It could be next for him, but it comes up pretty quick,” Shirreffs was quoted as saying in Santa Anita’s stable notes Monday (Feb. 20). “We’ll see.”

In 2020, Shirreffs sent out C R K Stable’s Honor A.P. to finish second behind Authentic in the San Felipe. Honor A.P. then won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby by 2 3/4 lengths, with Authentic having to settle for second. Authentic went on to win the Grade I Haskell Invitational, Grade I Kentucky Derby and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic en route to being voted 2020 Horse of the Year. Honor A.P. finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

The Shirreffs-trained Giacomo ran second to Consolidator in the 2005 San Felipe. After that, Giacomo finished fourth to Buzzards Bay, General John and Wilko in the Santa Anita Derby. Giacomo then won the Kentucky Derby in a 50-1 upset for owners Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss.

Another reason I have Skinner at No. 8 on this week’s Top 10 is I will not be surprised that, when all is said and done, he turns out to be at least as good as Giacomo.

Shirreffs does have one San Felipe victory to his credit. He won it with Stan Fulton’s A.P. Warrior in 2006. A.P. Warrior would go on to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby and 18th in the Kentucky Derby.

Geaux Rocket Ride is No. 6 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. It’s all systems go at this time for him to run in the San Felipe, according to Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. The Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight race by 5 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita when unveiled on Jan. 29.

It should be noted that Geaux Rocket Ride’s debut victory looks even better now after runner-up Sonoran came back to win a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race by 7 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Monday (Feb. 20) for Baffert.

Meanwhile, Brad Cox trains Angel of Empire and about a hundred other talented 3-year-old colts, or so it seems.

Even though Angel of Empire’s 89 Beyer in his Risen Star win won’t knock your socks off, I gave him the nod over Verifying and Practical Move for the No. 10 spot on my Top 10 this week for a couple of reasons.

First, by virtue of Angel of Empire earning 50 qualifying points in the Risen Star, he’s virtually assured of a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 6. And if you’re in it, you have a chance to win it, as evidenced by Rich Strike’s shocking 80-1 victory last year.

Second, since it seems like the longer a race is the better it is for Angel of Empire, it’s not hard for me to picture him hitting the board in the 1 1/4-mile Run for the Roses. Hence, I believe he deserves to be included on the Top 10.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Arabian Knight
2. Forte
3. Tapit Trice
4. Cave Rock
5. Instant Coffee
6. Geaux Rocket Ride
7. Hejazi
8. Skinner
9. Reincarnate
10. Angel of Empire

Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):

Blazing Sevens, Carmel Road, Damon’s Mound, Denington, Disarm, Eyeing Clover, Faustin, General Jim, Gun Pilot, Hard to Figure, Hit Show, Kingsbarns, Litigate, National Treasure, Please Be Nice, Practical Move, Recruiter, Red Route One, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder, Tall Boy, Two Eagles River, Two Phil’s, Worcester and Verifying.

REBEL STAKES SELECTIONS

Eleven are entered in the lucrative 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes, which will be contested at Oaklawn Park this Saturday (Feb. 25). The Grade II affair has a purse of $1 million up for grabs.

The two I like the most are Reincarnate (pictured above) and Verifying. Horses they recently have defeated (Mr. Fitz, Newgate, Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River) were next-out winners.

Tim Yakteen, instead of Baffert, is now listed as the trainer of Reincarnate. This makes the Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt eligible to earn Kentucky Derby points.

Horses trained by Baffert currently are ineligible to earn any qualifying points toward the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Baffert has been banned from participation in races at Churchill Downs Inc. tracks, including the Kentucky Derby, through early July. The ban stems from the 2021 Kentucky Derby in which the Baffert-trained Medina Spirit finished first but tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use, but not on race day.

A gem of consistency, Reincarnate has finished first or second in all five career starts.

Reincarnate goes into the Rebel off back-to-back victories. He won a one-mile maiden special weight race at Del Mar on Nov. 25, then took Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes at the same distance on Jan. 8.

Mr Fisk finished second to Reincarnate in the Nov. 25 race, then won his next start.

Newgate ran second to Reincarnate in the Sham, then was victorious in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

I expect Reincarnate to show early speed in the Rebel for Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. It’s the same running style the colt displayed in both of his wins.

Reincarnate’s name is “based on pedigree, looks and a famous gray that captured the imagination of one Gavin Murphy,” the DRF’s Brad Free wrote this week. “Murphy manages SF Racing, co-owner of Reincarnate. Murphy became a fan of Holy Bull in 1994, when he won four Grade I’s. The second dame of Reincarnate is by Holy Bull.”

Holy Bull was the 1994 Horse of the Year as a 3-year-old.

Reincarnate “looks just like Holy Bull,” Ryan said.

The name Reincarnate was Murphy’s idea, as in “Holy Bull reincarnated,” Free wrote.

A $775,000 auction purchase, Reincarnate is a Kentucky-bred son of Good Magic. Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a maiden and was voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male.

Coincidentally, Verifying likewise was a $775,000 auction purchase.

In Verifying’s first 2023 start, he bounded home to a 5 1/4-length victory going one mile in a first-level allowance/optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 14. Gun Pilot finished second, while Two Eagles River came in third. Gun Pilot won his next start, as did Two Eagles River. Gun Pilot will be one of Verifying’s opponents in the Rebel.

Breaking from the rail with Florent Geroux in the saddle, Verifying should be forwardly placed early and get a good trip in the Rebel. Cox trains Verifying, a son of undefeated 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Verifying is a half-brother to Midnight Bisou, an earner of $7,471,520 and an Eclipse Award recipient as champion older dirt female of 2019.

Cox also will be represented in the Rebel by Giant Mischief, who certainly warrants contender status.

Giant Mischief won his first two races, one at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the other at Keeneland. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt then ran second despite a poor start as a 4-5 favorite in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile on Dec. 17.

It certainly helps Giant Mischief’s chances in the Rebel that multiple Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. pilots him for the first time. Ortiz has been red-hot. He won four races last Saturday (Feb. 18) at Gulfstream Park, then three more there the next day.

Another Rebel entrant worthy of serious consideration is Red Route One. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt rallied to finish second, 5 1/2 lengths behind Arabian Knight (No. 1 on my Top 10), in Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on a sloppy track Jan. 28.

My selections for the Rebel Stakes are below:

1. Reincarnate
2. Verifying
3. Giant Mischief
4. Red Route One

ASMUSSEN REGISTERS WIN NO. 10,000

Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen won only 63 races as a jockey. He’s done a whole lot better as a trainer.

Asmussen, who ranks as North America’s all-time leader in wins by a trainer, made more history on Monday (Feb. 20). The 57-year-old native of South Dakota became the first North American trainer to win 10,000 Thoroughbred races when Bet He’s Ready posted a 3 3/4-length victory as an even-money favorite in the fifth race at Oaklawn.

On Aug. 7, 2021, when Stellar Tap got the job done in a maiden special weight race at Saratoga, Asmussen notched his 9,446th victory to take over the top spot in most wins by a North American trainer from the late Dale Baird.

Asmussen won his first race as a Thoroughbred conditioner with Victory’s Halo at Ruidoso Downs on July 19, 1986.

A two-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer in 2008 and 2009, Asmussen has conditioned such champions as Curlin (Horse of the Year in 2007 and 2008), Rachel Alexandra (Horse of the Year in 2009) and Gun Runner (Horse of the Year in 2017).

Below is a list of the Top 10 all-time leading Thoroughbred trainers in wins through Feb. 21, according to Equibase:

Rank Wins Trainer

1. 10,000 Steve Asmussen*
2. 9,445 Dale Baird
3. 7,759 Jerry Hollendorfer*
4. 6,523 Jack Van Berg
5. 6,508 King Leatherbury
6. 6,306 Scott Lake *
7. 5,502 Todd Pletcher*
8. 5,286 Bill Mott*
9. 4,892 D. Wayne Lukas*
10. 4,745 Richard Hazelton

*active

LINDA MEENTS PASSES AWAY

I join many who were saddened to learn the news that Linda Meents passed away on Feb. 14 at her home in Arizona following a lengthy illness at the age of 75. She was the press box racing wire operator for all of the tracks in the Los Angeles area at one time or another for many years before her retirement.

“She was a really, really good person,” Mike Willman, Santa Anita’s publicity director, said Sunday (Feb. 19) on his radio program Thoroughbred Los Angeles.

Willman noted that after he took over as publicity director at the Great Race Place, “Linda was kinda my rudder.”

In the many years I worked in television at Santa Anita and on HRTV with Kurt Hoover, she often joined us and others in playing a group pick six.

“She was a good winner and a good loser” as a participant in those pick six tickets, said handicapper Bob Mieszerski, whose selections, odds and comments appear in various Southern California newspapers, such as the Los Angeles Daily News, Pasadena Star-News and San Gabriel Valley Tribune. “She never complained. Everybody liked her.”

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 303 Art Collector (19)
2. 258 Taiba (9)
3. 180 Country Grammer (3)
4. 163 Defunded
5. 130 Cody’s Wish
6. 121 Atone
7. 115 Nest
8. 80 Elite Power
9. 64 Clairiere
10. 35 Goodnight Olive
10. 35 Gunite
10. 35 Queen Goddess

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 307 Forte (18)
2. 293 Arabian Knight (13)
3. 229 Instant Coffee
3. 163 Cave Rock
5. 111 Angel of Empire
6. 109 Rocket Can
7. 100 Hit Show
7. 77 Reincarnate
9. 68 Blazing Sevens
10. 61 Litigate