Trainer Bob Baffert currently is prohibited from participating in the 2023 Kentucky Derby but in Saudi Arabia his runners are welcomed with open arms, so with $20 million being offered in this year’s edition of the Saudi Cup, the two best older horses from Baffert’s barn – Country Grammer and Taiba - have been entered and most likely will receive the bulk of the play in the mile and one-eighth main track international classic that will be renewed Saturday, February 25.

Currently the world’s richest active thoroughbred with earnings in excess of $11.2 million, Country Grammer arrives in peak form and must be considered the likely choice and one to beat. Second in this same race last year before winning the Dubai World Cup the following month, the 6-year-old son of Tonalist has finished first or second in his last six races, most recently winning the San Antonio Stakes-G2 at Santa Anita Dec. 26 in a race that always was designed to serve as a proper prep for the race on Saturday. And proper, it was.

However, if Country Grammer falls short again – he was worn down late in last year’s Saudi Cup by Emblem Road, whom he must face again – it may be because Taiba, in his first start as a 4-year-old, has passed him by. Late to the party as a 3-year-old, Tabia won the Santa Anita Derby in just his second career start, arguably was too inexperienced when no factor in the Kentucky Derby, but then developed into a high class performer in the second half of 2022. The son of Gun Runner appears primed to step forward Saturday following his career-top victory in the seven furlong Malibu S-G1 at Santa Anta Dec. 26.

So which of the Baffert entrants should we prefer?

Here is what the handicapper must consider when comparing each horse head-to-head:

Country Grammer – the positive factors:

• Genuine and consistent: first or second in 10 of 14 career starts.
• Superb second over this track and distance in last year’s Saudi Cup before winning the Dubai World Cup.
• Displayed peak form when winning the recent San Antonio Stakes despite a very wide trip.
• Comfortable outside draw, allowing jockey Frankie Dettori to dictate his own trip.
• Never flashy in the morning but has maintained his edge and fitness in recent team drills.

Tabia – the positive factors:

• Returned to winning form with a dominating score in the 7F Malibu Stakes-G1 in a race restricted to 3-year-olds.
• Unbeaten in two starts sprinting, so the (one-turn) nine furlong trip may prove to be ideal.
• Can win on the lead (if nobody else goes) but can stalk and pounce just as well.
• May have been a tad best in team workout with Country Grammer last week.
• Lightly raced (just seven starts) so has room for more development than his stable mate.

Okay, so here’s the nitty gritty. In trying to distinguish between the two, Country Grammer’s resume simply appears stronger. While Taiba arguably has more room to improve, he isn’t where Country Grammer already has been. And there is an argument to be made that Taiba, at least against world class older and more seasoned competition at this stage of his career, may be most effective sprinting, or perhaps up to a mile. 

Fact is, neither one has to win. Several of the other imports are, indeed, quite formidable. But if you’re committed to back one of the two Americans in the race, Country Grammer should be the horse to prefer.

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