Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby Day card on the Gulf Coast features an all-stakes pick four and pick five. The two sequences overlap, so you can approach both with little additional effort.

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 7 | $75,000 Columbia Stakes

Turf miles are often very friendly to layoff horses, which helps the cause of #1 Freedom Trail and #9 Mo Stash as the top two morning line choices. If you like them, and I do, don’t worry about the time away. #10 Talk of the Nation took to the local turf with promise last month in a sharp allowance prep. This trio is in the mix, but my lean is to #7 Worthington. His third in the Dania Beach two starts back on turf was superb given the top 2, Candidate and Major Dude, are big-time sophomore turfers and returned to run 1-2 in the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy. Look to the exacta key-box intra-race 7 with 1,9,10 and consider all 4 in the pick five opener (with more tickets to the top pick).

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 8 | Grade 3 $100,000 Challenger Stakes

I’ve got at least 3 horses in here that I deem need-the-lead to run their best (#3 Mighty Heart, #4 Classic Causeway, #7 Tax). That puts the focus on late-running closers to rule the stretch. #9 Brooklyn Strong comes back off a long break for a high-octane trainer in Victor Barboza. Look for Samy Camacho to time his move with precision if he’s got any horse underneath him. At 30-1 morning line, it would be a big time for this one to return to his best form. #8 Business Model and #6 The Reds also should be moving best late. I’ll use the trio of closers in the pick five/pick four, while obvious intra-race action in the win pool on the longshot top peg. This is the leg we separate from the masses with a stand-against 8-5 morning line favorite #2 Skippylongstocking for his inconsistency and underlay price.

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 9 | Grade 2 $225,000 Hillsborough Stakes

Absolutely no excuses here for #6 Shantisara, runner-up in a Pegasus World Cup Turf in which any one of 3 or 4 alumni of that race would be favored here. Her Chad Brown stablemates include #1 Kalifornia Queen, who simply hangs late and fails to deliver in nearly every one of her starts; and #4 Rougir, who ran well fresh last year in the Beaugay and hits a potentially favorable form cycle for her best. My preference is to single #6 Shantisara, though two-deep with #4 Rougir is a viable argument. But for the same cost, I’d rather have the ticket twice with #6 Shantisara than to be watered down for ‘safety.’

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 10 | Grade 3 $200,000 Florida Oaks

Good options exist here, led by #6 Navy Goat, a talented 2-year-old who was knocked off her best tracking position in her sophomore return in the Ginger Brew. That loss to the top-class Cairo Consort continues to look more acceptable. A 20-day gap in Navy Goat’s workout tab does concern me, Feb. 5-25, otherwise I’d be inclined to go all-in. Still, the top pick and win play intra-race. The door opens to include #2 All Americanbeauty, #3 Alpha Bella and #10 Free Look. Alpha Bella is beautifully drawn with tactical speed inside with the elbow start for 1-1/16 miles on the turf. Smaller budgets may consider just two-deep, but the quartet brings in another price option as well as the morning line favorite.

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 11 | Grade 3 $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby

Todd Pletcher won the local Tampa Bay Derby prep – the Sam F. Davis Stakes – with Litigate, and comes over this time with a horse who has much more talent and promise in #6 Tapit Trice. That 7 of these runners are horses who couldn’t beat Litigate last time in the Davis gives me even more confidence in the allowance potential showcased by Tapit Trice. He’s a clear single as the favorite.

The Tickets:

Pick 5: 7,1,9,10 with 9,8,6 with 6 with 6,2,3,10 with 6 = $24 for $.50
Pick 4: 9,8,6 with 6 with 6,2,3,10 with 6 = $6 for $.50