Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Carmen Miranda; 1-Power Surge
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Carmen Miranda appears well-spotted for a major effort in the Saturday opener in this first-level allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares. Always a genuine and consistent sort, the Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Stanford projects to settle just off the leaders outside and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. She switches to leading rider Juan Hernandez and shows two nice breezes since raced to tick her over after finishing third when used on the pace in a similar affair down the hill last month. Power Surge, away for almost a year, has been training very well for her comeback and seems likely to fire a huge shot fresh. This will be her first try on grass, and while her pedigree leans towards dirt the daughter of Straight Fire has run well over synthetic so perhaps she’ll handle the lawn as well. We’ll prefer Carmen Miranda on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Smiling Amy; 7-Blursday
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: A little will go a very long way into the modest maiden claiming ($50,000) sprint for California-bred fillies and mares. Tread lightly. Smiling Amy drops into a seller for the first time – always a good angle – and against this group she should be very competitive. The daughter of Smiling Tiger has some early speed could get brave if she can establish the front end. A bullet recent half mile workout (:47 3/5, fastest of 70) is encouraging. Blursday is comfortably drawn outside, shows the popular route-to-sprint angle, and is a fit on speed figures even though she is moving up from the bottom-rung $20,000 level. In a race in which the first timers don’t impress (but are liable to receive strong action by default), let’s try to get by using a pair of experienced 4-1 morning line shots on our ticket.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Annie’s Song; 6-Code Ribbon
Backups/savers: 1-Too Much Heaven

Forecast: We’ll pass the third race but include three in rolling exotic play in a challenging extended turf sprint for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Annie’s Song may be as good as any in this six runner affair; the John Sadler-trained filly drops considerably in class and has numbers that make her the one to beat in a wide open affair. She’s a two-time winner over the local lawn, is reunited with “win rider” Abel Cedillo, and catches a pace-less field that might allow her to inherit the role as the controlling speed. Code Ribbon is a Bay Area shipper with a dangerous late running style, though the pace projection promises to be a tad soft and may compromise her chances. In the frame in 12 of 15 career starts, the daughter of Desert Code always lays her body down. Too Much Heaven is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and if cranked up and ready in her first start in nearly a year the Phil D’Amato-trained mare should be competitive. The works look okay, not great, and her form suggests she might need to shake off some rust, but she does show a prior win over the local lawn and figures that fit so we’ll toss her in as a saver.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:31 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Ultimate Gamble
Backups/Save: none

Forecast: Ultimate Gamble had the misfortune of tackling Cave Rock and Practical Move in his debut last summer at Del Mar and wound up fourth, beaten 12 lengths, before being stopped on. The Mark Glatt-trained sophomore returns to action following a series of workouts that should have him plenty fit and has every right to return better than he left. Purchased for $1.75 million a year ago at auction in Ocala, Fl., the son or Medaglia d’Oro remains highly regarded and should be able to graduate today in this maiden special weight main track miler and then go on to bigger and better things. The Triple Crown nominated colt, a first time Lasix user, is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite and is worth a play at or near that price in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Tizz a Good Thing
Backups/savers: 6-Billbernjoejohnick

Forecast: Though the barn doesn’t win often with first time starters, Tizz a Good Thing has done everything in the morning like a nice prospect and appears fit and ready for a major performance in his debut in this abbreviated turf sprint for maiden state-bred runners. The son of Vronsky, a nice-sized colt with plenty of scope, has displayed sufficient quickness to win at this distance and will present excellent wagering value at his morning line of 3-1 if you can get it. Billbernjoejohnick has rising speed figures, a good recent third place effort over the course, and enough early speed to press the issue every step of the way. In case our top pick fails to fire, he’ll serve a purpose as a backup or a saver,

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RACE 6: Post: 3:32 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Midnight Special; 6-Box of Chocolates
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: None of these bottom-rung claiming sprinters are trustworthy, so the best advice is to proceed with caution. Midnight Special is a first-off-the-claim play for excellent horseman Dean Pederson and seems likely to produce a forward move after finishing a steady but non-threatening fourth in a similar abbreviated dash in mid-February. Given a brief freshening and returning at his claim level, the son of Vronsky removes blinkers, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Alsagoor, and catches a field that might be better suited for mixed breed racing at Los Alamitos. Four nice breezes since raced should have him cranked up for a big try. Box of Chocolates drops to his lowest level ever and may have found his friends. A prior winner over the Santa Anita main track, the Jonathan Wong-trained son of Candy Ride is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late. Additionally, the Bay Area-based gelding shows several recent speed figures that are superior to this level, making him strictly the one to beat.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Closing Remarks; 4-Nadette
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Closing Remarks ran into a severe roadblock approaching the far turn and lost all chance in her most recent outing in the Buena Vista S.-G2 over this course and distance last month. That she was able to regain her momentum and then rally to finish third, beaten less than two lengths, was rather remarkable, so if she can duplicate that type of performance with clear sailing today the veteran California-bred mare can regain her winning form in this year’s edition of the Royal Heroine S.-G2. Nadette finished fifth in that same race after being moved too soon and then flattening out late. She is strictly a one-run type that requires a patient, well-timed ride, and if she can get her preferred trip under Frankie she has a chance to pull off a surprise at 6-1 on the morning line. In a race in which each of the entrants has a legitimate look, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Batukhan
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: There’s really not much we can do with this bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler. Batukhan is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite despite being a 12-race maiden and clearly not one to trust. Still, the Leonard Powell-trained gelding almost has to win due to the lack of a viable alternative. Second in a similar spot last month while finishing more than six lengths clear of the rest, the Irish-bred 5-year-old removes blinkers, shows steadily rising speed figures, and projects to enjoy a comfortable mid-pack trip. In a race that probably is best left alone, he seems logical as a no-value rolling exotic single.


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RACE 9: Post: 5:17 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-An Agent Mistake; 8-Slam Diego; 10-Glenall
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag starter optional claimer over a mile for fillies and mares that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three deep, but feel free to use more if your budget allows. An Agent Mistake is drawn poorly outside in her second start off a layoff but if she can build on her sharp recent runner-up performance in a strong turf sprint at this level the Doug O’Neill-trained filly should have an excellent shot at 4-1 on the morning line. Stakes placed over this course and distance as a 3-year-old, the daughter of Klimt projects to settle into a second flight position and then have her chance when the pressure is turned on. Slam Diego earned a career top speed figure when a solid runner up at this trip over local lawn in a similar affair in early February, and a healthy work tab since should have kept her right on edge. She’s a one-paced sort that probably needs to be within striking range throughout to have her best chance. Glenall, third in the same race Slam Diego exits, is just 1-for-16 in her career but she shows winning form over the course and picks up Frankie. She really won’t have to improve much to be right there.
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