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Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland $60K Carryover Pick 6 Analysis | Wednesday, April 19, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

April 19, 2023

Wednesday’s Keeneland pick 6 has a carryover of $60,501 and no jackpot provisions. It’s a $1 base minimum, so let’s get to work.

Keeneland | Race 3

#3 Icy Stare early and #9 Get By late would be a solid pace mix for going 2-deep in this maiden claimer. Price look to #10 Kall Kat for a barn that often perks up later in Keeneland meets.

Keeneland | Race 4

Good options about with #8 Make the Boys Wink the legitimate favorite. #9 Just Say So, #3 Paint Me Perfect, #6 Fancy Caber Neigh and #7 Up and Down could shake things up for better prices.

Keeneland | Race 5

Solidly behind the day’s best bet here #1 Invisible War, whose one-turn form is superb and that’s what is in play. Few key scratches here only solidify his position.

Keeneland | Race 6

#11 Master of the Ring gets the pace set-up for his late move and #3 Evan Harlan is a front-end favorite who will be trying to fend him off. Maker-Motion aces in these turf marathons. Solid pairing.

Keeneland | Race 7

#6 Group Hug won moving turf-to-dirt the last time trying the surface change and should be a fair price. Hard to look past Brad Cox the way his horses are running at the meet, so #2 Film Star plays. Could also consider speedball #7 Royal King and #5 Princely, a 3-year-old taking on elders and coming out of a very promising Fair Grounds race. But I’ll narrow to the top pair for budget purposes.

Keeneland | Race 8

I’ve got a pair price bombs at 15-1 morning line to dig into here. #1 Stay Lost ran better-than-it-looks with a mistimed move here in the Fall Meet and returns first-time Lasix. #5 Bell Rosso also gets L1 for the seasonal return after good tries last year, including vs. eventual juvenile stakes player Chop Chop. #8 Frontal Attack a rookie for Chad Brown to round out the ticket isn’t the worst idea, but adds $60 in additional cost as structured.

The Ticket

3,9,10 with 8,9,3,6,7 with 1 with 11,3 with 6,2 with 1,5 = $120
Budget players: Singling the favorite in Race 4 trims the ticket immediately to just $24.