by Jeremy Plonk
April 21, 2023
It’s a mega-carryover Friday in the $1 minimum pick 6 at Keeneland with $859,584 already in the pool. Expect another $2 million or more in fresh money when the sequence begins in Race 5. The pick 6 was not hit on Thursday despite 3 winning favorites; a lone, 17-1 upset in Race 8 left players empty. Among the featured runners in the sequence is Pimlico's 2022 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes winner Interstatedaydream (pictured above).
Let’s get to work.
Keeneland | Race 5
Allowance turf sprinters provide an instant challenge to advancing, and the final status of also-eligible #13 Red Hot Rod for king of the turf sprints Wesley Ward is crucial to how many you’ll include. #3 Cadamosto, #4 Gregory’s Pride, #5 True Jedi, #6 Trust Daddy and #7 High Front are all beautifully drawn, fit on form and include some of the best turf sprint jockeys in the colony. I’ll want to include each of these.
Keeneland | Race 6
Early speed has dominated the main track through the first 9 days of the Spring Meet and this starter allowance sprint looks ripe to be taken up top. #1 Morning Cup may be lone speed in a field lacking for it and expect aggressive Irad Ortiz Jr. to assert from the start if he can. #4 Appeal Denied could be next-quickest early and comes off a career-best race. This looks like the clearest single of the sequence.
Keeneland | Race 7
A series of viable first-time starters dot this maiden special weight sprint on dirt. #1 Coppa Girl for Brad Cox and #6 Sassy Walker for Phil D’Amato both have worked with ability for elite-level barns, while #2 Truly Grateful debuts with Irad Ortiz Jr. up and 4 months of works potentially toward this. They join experienced runners #9 Shesasmalltowngirl, #8 Check Engine Light and #5 Magical Lute as practical inclusions in a race that offers no significant separation among these. Like Race 5, this appears to be a spot to utilize a chunk of your budget.
Keeneland | Race 8
This fascinating turf route allowance re-matches The Curragh’s Group 3 Fillies Stakes 1-3 finishers from last August, #3 Viareggio and #1 Juncture. Both will run on Lasix for the first time, and it’s notable that Brad Cox (Juncture) hits a wild 38% winners with L1 runners, while Brendan Walsh (Viareggio) is a good, but less remarkable 20% winner with these types. #7 Fancy Martini has run well over the course; #2 Fast as Flight gets a significant post position upgraded from her last bid at Gulfstream, an always important last destination for these Kee spring turf allowances; and #6 Bipartisanship should be an overlay price and late factor for a respected jockey-trainer. It’s a single-or-spread kind of feeling to me, and if I’m not singling #1 Juncture, then I’m opening up a big budget headache.
Keeneland | Race 9
The Grade 3 $300,000 Doubledogdare Stakes very well runs through #4 Interstatedaydream (pun intended). Trainer Cox is a bonkers 31% in Keeneland 1-1/16 miles races on dirt as his runners just excel off the turn, rebreak in upper stretch and enjoy that finish line at the sixteenth pole in these races. Cox won this race in 2021 with Bonny South, but expect this edition to be attacked from the front of the pack. Speed has been good all meet on the main, so there will be company seeking the same spot. #2 Green Up has speed and fires fresh off the bench for Todd Pletcher. There’s other big-barn influence with Bill Moo-trained Frost Point in career form. Mott’s son, Riley, gets on the big stage with Traverse, and don’t overlook the quality sophomore from last year, Hidden Connection. Cox already has 4 stakes wins at the meet, his filly has speed and a good third over the track last year in the Ashland, the Doubledogdare Stakes has historically been very formful since the return to dirt. No stretch to single here, but not a certainty.
Keeneland | Race 10
Thursday’s pick 6 heartbreak ending with potential $400K-plus payoffs running second and third a three-horse photo. What’s crazy is the winner was the post-time favorite and not covered. Friday’s finale could come down to another melee late. #9 Our Dream Rye’d has run well here in the past and comes off a stakes try at Gulfstream for hot Spring Meet barn Ian Wilkes. Under late-rallying Joel Rosario, he’ll be heard from late. So, too, will Battle of Normandy under Irad Ortiz Jr. His trainer Shug McGaughey already has 3 turf wins at the meet. But the one that intrigues most in this 1-1/8 miles test is impeccably bred grass router #6 Roja Redemption. By Flintshire out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, he should absolutely relish this trip more than his two prior starts going shorter on synthetic at Turfway. Feel good with this trio.
Three singles may seem crazy, but it’s Irad on potential lone speed, Brad Cox with an L1 import coming out of Group stakes into allowance company and the likely Cox favorite in the stakes race. Three favorites Thursday still resulted in a carryover, after all, so we’re looking to catch some bingo in one or two of the other three legs.
The Ticket
3,4,6,5,7,13 with 1 with 1,6,9,8,5,2 with 1 with 1 with 6,5,9 = $108 ($90 without the AE in Leg A)
Budget players: Given we’re already brazen with three singles, trimming the deep races of a few contenders listed last would be the recommendation.