by Matt Dinerman
April 29, 2023
Saturday, April 29, 2023: Day 56 of the 77-day 2022-23 Winter/Spring Meet
***FIRST POST: 1:15 PM*** ***TICKETS AND PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE***
***Track Matt Dinerman provides handicapping analysis every day. To listen to his analysis, please tune in to the Golden Gate Fields simulcast feed. You can contact Matt at
Race 1: #6 Performative, #3 Chicago Soldier, #1 Wakes and Weddings
Race 2: #2 She’s Resilient, #1 Turiaf, #4 A Rousing Babe
Race 3: #1 Stoic Luna, #7 Stateforest, #6 Lyinatthebar
Race 4: #7 Dumb Luck, #2 Dad Bob, #5 Hawk Hill
Race 5: #7 Rackataptap, #5 Tex Hanley, #6 Attenzione
Race 6: #5 Lily Poo, #1 Smiling Lady, #3 Bourbon Glaze
Race 7: #8 Xmas Surprise, #4 Alice Marble, #3 Carolina Mia
Race 8: #2 Top Harbor, #5 My Summer Dream, #7 Crazy Dreams
Race 9: #4 Buyback, #2 Nadette, #10 Ascendancy
Race 10: #7 Passarando, #8 Chase the Chaos, #9 Prince Abu Dhabi
Race 11: #9 Dicey Mo Chara, #2 Balnikhov, #1 Tarantino
Race 12: #4 Whatwasthenisnow, #2 Sue Generous, #8 Danehill Song
50-Cent Early Pick 5 ($48)
R1: 1,3,5,6
R2: 1,2
R3: 1
R4: 2,5,7
R5: 5,6,7,8
50-Cent Late Pick 5 ($48)
R8: 2
R9: 1,2,4,7,8,10
R10: 4,7,8,9
R11: 9
R12: 2,4,5,8
50-Cent Late Pick 4 ($48)
R9: 2,4,8,10
R10: 4,7,8,9
R11: 2,9
R12: 2,4,8
****GUARANTEED LATE PICK 5 POOL OF $150,000, LATE PICK 4 POOL GUARANTEED AT $200,000***
GOLD RUSH WEEKEND STAKES ANALYSIS
By Matt Dinerman
First post on a 12-race program on Gold Rush Weekend Saturday 2023 at Golden Gate Fields is 1:15 PM. Six stake races highlight a terrific, competitive card. Below are my top three picks in each stake.
Race 6: The first of six stakes races is the California Oaks for 3-year-old fillies. #5 Lily Poo faces four locals in her quest for a first career stakes victory and appears well spotted for a competitive run. If she can handle the route game, she’ll be tough; all four lifetime starts have come sprinting. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the daughter of Tapiture was an impressive maiden winner at Del Mar in December. Umberto Rispoli, who rides 8 of the 12 races on Gold Rush Weekend Saturday with a strong lineup of mounts, has the call. #1 Smiling Lady led every step of the way in a first level allowance race here on March 26 and figures to set the pace. Although she is a one dimensional, need-the-lead type filly, she is expected to clear off on the lead today. Come and catch her. #3 Bourbon Glaze is a hard trying filly coming off two runner up finishes at allowance conditions. She may be best of the rest.
Race 7: The Camilla Urso Stakes for filly and mare turf sprinters kicks off the Pick Six. #8 Xmas Surprise was a runaway winner in salty turf sprint at Santa Anita last time out and appears primed for another strong effort against a field we think she can handle here. Over the summer at Del Mar, we saw her give the super talented Twilight Gleaming a scare as the runner up in the race; the aforementioned turf sprinter would be odds on in a race like this. #4 Alice Marble exits a pair of California-bred stakes wins and sports a blazing fast bullet workout leading up to this race. A picture of consistency with 7 wins, 2 runner up finishes, and 3 third place efforts from 15 lifetime starts, Alice Marble reminds us a lot of S Y Sky, the 2019 Camilla Urso winner who was trained and owned/bred by the same connections (Phil D’Amato and Nick Alexander). #3 Carolina Mia has hit the board against open allowance company in recent starts on the Tapeta. She is much better on the turf sprinting five furlongs, so she’s a sneaky live contender at what will be a good price.
Race 8: The Lost in the Fog for sprinters kicks off the Late Pick 5, which has a guaranteed pool of $150,000 on Saturday. Three-time stakes winner #2 Top Harbor doesn’t do much wrong. Last time out, he was an ultra-game winner of an allowance race, defeating Star Racer, who had earned 93, 96 and 97 Beyer speed figures in his last three races. This local is squarely the one to beat. #5 My Summer Dream was claimed out of Santa Anita off three consecutive wins. After a pair of off-the-board finishes for the new connections, he put it all together in his third start for the barn in a second level allowance race last month. Nice effort, and his form appears to be going back in the right direction. #7 Crazy Dreams is the wild card. He was supplemented into this race, which is interesting because he’s been routing as of late and was nominated to the San Francisco Mile. He beat Grade 3 winner Lammas two starts ago and was last seen losing by a half-length in the 9-furlong McCann’s Mojave Stakes. Cutting back in distance means he’ll be fit, and his only sprint race as a maiden was a solid try.
Race 9: The Golden Poppy Stakes for filly and mare turf routers begins our Late Pick 4 bet, which has a guaranteed pool of $200,000. #4 Buyback suffered a heartbreaking loss in this race last year, dueling on the lead before getting tagged late by Avenue de France, who came back over the summertime to win a Grade 2 at Del Mar. Buyback makes her second start off a layoff in this year’s Golden Poppy and her most race afternoon appearance, in a sprint, was simply to get a race under her belt leading up to the Gold Rush Weekend festivities. She finds a field that lacks front running speed and could get loose out there; the pick. #2 Nadette exits Grade 2 races at Santa Anita and figures to be right there at the wire against this easier bunch. #10 Ascendancy looked to have some run behind horses in her last start, the Grade 3 Santa Ana at Santa Anita, but suffered traffic issues at a pivotal point in the race, lost momentum, and ran fifth. No way she would have won that day, but she still earned a career high Beyer speed figure-which by the way was her first start on the turf-and she’s out of a War Front dam, meaning she is bred to love the turf. Her form has continued to improve gradually over the last few starts…she could be sitting on a big run.
Race 10: The 2023 California Derby for 3-year-olds is an excellent race. #7 Passarando freshens up two and a half months, which could be a blessing considering he had an awfully hard campaign in 2022 and early in 2023. He was an eye-catching winner of the Gold Rush Stakes last year with a fast pace to run into, and he is expected to get that same type of contentious, speedy tempo in this race. Mild upsetter? #8 Chase the Chaos has shown an affinity for the Tapeta. The last time he raced over it, he won the El Camino Real Derby. A logical contender who should get a good trip; arguably the one to beat. #9 Prince Abu Dhabi is undefeated at 3 for 3 and makes his second career start routing. He may be able to improve in the second lifetime two-turn race and should get the right trip to run on.
Race 11: The $250,000 Grade 3 San Francisco Mile goes as the penultimate race on the card. #9 Dicey Mo Chara cuts back a quarter of a mile for his first start at eight furlongs since last year in the All American at Golden Gate. That day, he suffered traffic problems down the lane and would have won with a good trip. He out finished Master Piece for third; the aforementioned foe came back to win the Grade 2 Eddie Read at Del Mar in the summer. Dicey Mo Chara should get a midfield trip off a projected fast pace and will be super fit with the cutback in distance in mind. He is also expected to get the first jump on #2 Balnikhov, dropping in class after an off the board finish in the Grade 1 Frank Kilroe Mile. We think he’ll love this European style Golden Gate turf course and is another that will be effective with a quick pace to close into. #1 Tarantino is multiple graded stakes placed and is a price to consider. In his last start, he ran a better than looked race when second against tough company at Santa Anita.
GOOD LUCK!