Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Sakura Flavor; 7-Irish Rose
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Sakura Flower produced a significant forward move when a willing runner-up at 32-1 against a similar group of older maiden fillies and mares last month and today gets an extra furlong to work with while seeking her diploma in her fourth career start. The Irish-bred daughter of Kingman appears to have considerably more upside than the others in the field, so with the switch to good grass rider Umberto Rispoli she will offer solid gambling value at or near her morning line of 5/2. Irish Rose displayed promise in her debut when finishing with good energy to be second in a useful turf sprint in February. Two subsequent outings over the local lawn failed to produce any kind of improvement but the Neil Drysdale-trained daughter of Irish Surf should be capable of stepping forward in her first try over a route of ground. She’s properly priced at 6-1 on the morning line and is a worth including in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Run Snappy; 4-Arrest
Backups/savers: 2-Big Splash.

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the second race, an extended sprint for older $16,000 claimers. Run Snappy had a right to be a bit rusty when fading to be fifth in a tougher $32,000 restricted affair in his second start off a long layoff last month. The barn hits at a strong 22% with this angle and the son of Runhappy has a prior win this track, so in a field lacking in early zip he could get loose early and get brave late. Arrest is just one-for-15 in his career and is dropping two notches below his claim level after a pair lethargic runs, so the pattern isn’t healthy, but he has some back numbers that make him a threat and he is a perfect one-for-one at this extended sprint distance. Big Splash has the route-to-sprint angle that always intrigues us and a state-bred maiden special weight win over this dirt strip last year. He won’t have to improve much to be a factor, so we’ll toss him as a backup.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Myfavoritedaughter; 4-Jibber Jabber
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Myfavoritedaughter returns to her claim level ($32,000) for the first time in five races and should have every chance to regain her winning form from her favorable inside draw in this one mile turf event for fillies and mares. She has a prior win over this course and distance and speed figures that are quite competitive in this league, so let’s go with the Vladimir Cerin-trained mare, who will enjoy a significant break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Aguilar. Even in a race that projects to have a modest early pace, the late-running daughter of Carpe Diem should be capable of tagging the leaders late. Jibber Jabber may lack a winning punch (she’s two-for-17) but usually gets at least a piece of it. Now in the Steve Knapp barn following a $25,000 claim, the Irish-bred mare figures to be in the second flight most of the way and then have dead aim when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Myfavoritedaughter slightly preferred on top.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Adare Manor
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: Adare Manor is listed at 2/5 on the morning line in this year’s renewal of the Santa Margarita S.-G2 for fillies and mares, and after winning with ease by almost five lengths in the Santa Maria S.-G2 in late April the Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Uncle Mo should go about her business in a similar manner. A four-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, she projects to enjoy an easy trip as the controlling speed as a logical rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Touchdown Kittle; 3-Moon Ice
Backups/savers: 12-Maxville.

Forecast: Touchdown Kittle was very well-meant in his debut but came up a head short while nearly four lengths clear of the rest when facing a similar band of state-bred maiden older horses over the local lawn last month. With that race behind him and at this slightly shorter trip, the son of Tiznow should have every chance to graduate in a race that projects to be slowly run early. Moon Ice seems certain to be prominent throughout from his favorable inside draw and actually owns a distinct edge on speed figures when compared to our top pick. He’s hit the board in five of six career starts but always has been suspect close home when put to pressure. This group could be within his range. Maxville, a respectable third in his debut after a slow start in the same race our top pick finished second in, certainly has room to improve and offers good long shot value at 12-1 on the morning line. Look for him to be doing his best work late.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:27 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Pars and Birdies, 4-Twice Fooled; 14-San Jac.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Anything goes in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older horses. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Pars and Birdies shows the route-to-sprint angle, adds blinkers for the first time, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Aguilar. His third place finish at this level over this track and distance two runs back wasn’t bad, so we’ll put him on top at 8-1 on the morning line. Twice Fooled, in the frame in four of five career starts at Turf Paradise, may be competitive on this circuit, though Phoenix form often doesn’t translate well to the Big Leagues. His best speed figure puts him the picture against this group, untrustworthy as it might be. San Jac takes a significant class drop in his third career start, and it wouldn’t take much improvement for him to be a factor. The Tim Yakteen-trained gelding has enough early speed to get over from his extreme outside draw to press the pace, and from that position he may be able to do some damage. In a race that probably is best left alone, these are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic single play, but deeper coverage is recommended for those who can afford it.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:27 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Paris Secret; 3-Pleasant Wave
Backups/savers: 2-Commanche Country

Forecast: Paris Secret and Pleasant Wave finished one-two (pair well clear) in the Providencia Stakes over this course and distance in late April and both should be major players right back under identical conditions for 3-year-old fillies. The former had plenty of pace to set things up for her closing kick but may benefit from quicker-than-par early fractions once again. The latter improved a bunch at 19-1 in her fifth career start to miss by less than a length, and with another forward move today could make a serious run at 6-1 right back. Comanche Country was in a bit steep when unplaced in the Edgewood Stdakes-G2 at Churchill Downs last month but is solid on numbers, shows a prior win over the course, and should have dead aim from the quarter pole home.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Starship Defiant; 6-Sunshine Babe
Backups/savers: 2-Ko Olina.

Forecast: Starship Defiant has finished first or second in nine of 15 starts over the Santa Anita main track and this genuine and consistent mare seems well-spotted for another big effort in this allowance optional claiming main track miler for state-bred fillies and mares. She just beat a similar field over this track and distance and is eligible right back due to being entered for the $40,000 tag. However, her winning rider, Kent Desormeaux, opts for Sunshine Babe, herself a winner (via a dead heat) under these conditions on grass last month and taking full advantage of the clause that allows her to return at the same level in a dirt affair. ‘Babe is the slightly faster of the two on numbers but ‘Defiant has the better form on the main track. Ko Olina, away since last September, has only one way to go and that’s on the front end for as long as she can stay there. The barn has had a slow year but generally does well with layoff runners and this daughter of Stanford could fire a reasonable shot fresh if not policed early. Toss her in as a saver.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:55 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Count of Amazonia; 8-Unconquerable Keen
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Count of Amazonia is just 1-for-10 over the Santa Anita turf course but that victory three races back over this tricky downhill course was visually impressive and good enough if repeated today to handle this second level allowance optional claimer. He’ll get the patient ride he requires with the switch to the barn’s “go-to” jockey Kent Desormeaux, and after almost two months of freshening the Irish-bred gelding should be ready to regain his best form. Unconquerable Keen looked good beating a lesser field gate-to-wire over the flat course last month in his first outing since last July, and if he can build on that performance today he’ll be dangerous right back. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding was a useful handicapper in Ireland prior to importation and with just nine career outings (three wins) he certainly has room for added development. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Count of Amazonia on top.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:25 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Ghazaaly; 9-Nineeleventurbo
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Ghazaaly won’t ever live up to his $1 million-plus purchase price as a yearling but he still can be a useful performer at age five as he gains maturity and experience. Making just his eighth career start, the son of Curlin tries grass for the first time after posting a career top speed figure when handling a similar starter allowance field on dirt late last month with complete authority. This nine furlong trip should be well within his range, so if the Vladimir Cerin-trained horse can duplicate his main track form on grass he should have an excellent chance to score right back under bug boy Aguilar. Nineeleventurbo had his number taken down (bad call) when finishing first against similar last time out in an effort that produced a career top speed figure. He’d won his comeback outing earlier in May, so by all rights he should be undefeated (and clearly improved) during his six-year-old campaign. Both of those first place finishes were accomplisher over a mile, but he’s won at this trip in the past, so the added ground won’t be an issue. Hudson Ridge is poorly drawn outside but is a strong fit on numbers and continues to impress in the morning. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the son of American Pharoah projects to settle into a stalking position and have every chance from there.