by Jeremy Plonk
June 16, 2023
Saturday’s card at Ellis Park features a pair of stakes co-features in the late pick 5 sequence. This has a chance to be pretty chalky, so you’ll want to keep the ticket focused and not spread too many combinations. Create your value by stringing together winners that make sense.
Ellis | Race 6 | allowance
#5 Demolition Duke has dirt form to top these, but his first bid on turf will be the test. Sire Good Magic has been decent with grass horses and not far off his dirt numbers. Consistent #4 Miranda Rights is well-drawn, proven on turf and freshened for this. #8 More Than Looks should get more pace help Saturday than in his past two, and ran well despite that fact previously. #9 Anglophile is a local course winner and drops in class, but has a tough post for pressing/mid-pack style; same goes for #10 Fearless Soldier. Let’s try to get out of here 3-deep.
Ellis | Race 7 | maiden
#1 Zeitlos will be a solid favorite and deservedly so off her Keeneland spring return. Very little known early speed around her, so the rail draw won’t be a hindrance, but rather a benefit if she gets out cleanly. First-timers Petticoat and A Lotta Wild are the wildcards, but you won’t have benefit of seeing toteboard before the pick 5, though you will for pick 4. Pick 5 players would be wise to look during Race 6 at the daily double probables to Race 7 to get a sense if either rookie is live. Even so, they better have big ability to best Zeitlos. Single.
Ellis | Race 8 | Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes
Kentucky Oaks beaten favorite #1 Wet Paint should be a slam dunk in this spot, but it’s only a mile with that elbow start and a race where I typically prefer early speed. #4 Hoosier Philly (pictured above) looked to get back on form in the Black-Eyed Susan and projects here to be loose on the lead if they outbreak and clear longshot Flamand. Take the classy, early-late duo and don’t sweat it.
Ellis | Race 9 | Chorleywood Overnight Stakes
Not only did #6 Foreign Relations beat most of his top challengers last time in the Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill, he’s also the horse in the field with a good local performance on the ledger. Expect this one to notch his third straight win and fourth in the last five.
Ellis | Race 10 | claiming
There will be a temptation to spread here by many players after a series of short-price favorites look logical on the ticket. So even the longer prices will be over-covered. You’ll be best to remain focused and hit this multiple times as the spread players help increase the payoff a bit on the logical returns. Morning line favorite T Max has a local score, but this is a suspicious class drop that sends me looking for others. Take the fresh-off-the-claim pair of #7 Bel Aria and #8 Acaciahelpme in what look to be move-up barn situations for the new connections.
The Tickets
Pick 5 (begins Race 6): 5,4,8 with 1 with 4,1 with 6 with 7,8 = $6 for $.50 play
Pick 4 (begins Race 7): 1 with 4,1 with 6 with 7,8 = $2 for $.50 play