The Lead:
Let's follow up a profitable score in this space last week with continued success, moving the operation to Thistledown on Saturday for the Ohio Derby program. The track's signature race, which inaugurated in 1876 (one year after the Kentucky Derby debuted), will be the 12th and final on a card that gets underway at noon ET. The undercard boasts a trio of stakes in Races 9-11.

​Field Depth:
Kentucky Derby runner-up TWO PHIL'S is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed, while LORD MILES has won at the Grade 2 level. HAYES STRIKE is Grade 2-placed and a listed stakes winner. Both HENRY Q and BISHOP'S BAY are Grade 3-placed. TWO PHIL'S consistently has kept the strongest running lines, but there's not a wide class discrepancy among the other quartet listed here.

Pace:
BISHOPS BAY and HENRY Q figure to carve out the pace as they exit the 1-turn Peter Pan and were in the first flight in that one. Perhaps longshot local ANGELLO'S DREAM can influence the pace if hard-sent. This looks like a comfortable tempo and you won't want to be too far out of it over 1-1/8 miles.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-HENRY Q: Hustling speed jockey Kendrick Carmouche takes over for the first time and should be intent to lead these from the rail draw. Trainer Doug O'Neill won this race in 2017 with Irap. This looks like a very good spot in terms of class fit with 4 well-spaced works since aiming for this spot over the Belmont Stakes.

2-TIMESATAPPIN: Local will be among the longest prices on the board and is devoid of any early speed. Hope would be to pass some tired horses, but 0-3 mark on this track doesn't inspire confidence.

3-BISHOPS BAY: Favored in all 3 starts, he suffered his only loss when beaten by a head in the Peter Pan to eventual Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo. Finished more than 8 lengths ahead of Henry Q in that one and should be right up in the mix with that one throughout the Ohio Derby. Picks up 8 pounds off that last effort, but bullet workout since. Brad Cox won this race in 2019 (Owendale) and last year (Tawny Port).

4-TWO PHIL'S: Either of his last 2 efforts, a Jeff Ruby win at Turfway and his Kentucky Derby second-place finish, would get the job done here. It's simply a matter if he's going to regress off the strongest Derby second since Bodemeister more than a decade ago. Four workouts at Hawthorne since don't indicate that he's going the wrong way. In fact, he might have been too fresh as trainer Larry Rivelli spaced his drills out 10 days apart (vs. the usual 7-8) after back-to-back bullets. Can handle the distance, weight and competition here.

5-AGNELLO'S DREAM: Local colt by 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming has lost 7 straight since winning 2 in a row last December. His 0-6 mark at Thistledown and lack of distance experience and success don't add optimism.

6-LAST COOKIE: Former Brad Cox trainee was claimed for just $15,000 at Turfway in December, the only race he's won in 6 starts. Dropped 3 allowance bids for the new connections in Ohio since then and hard to recommend this former Godolphin blueblood who is half-brother to Met Mile and Whitney winner Frosted.

7-LORD MILES: Wood Memorial winner was forced to scratch from the Kentucky Derby by a state commission ruling that kept trainer Saffie Joseph's entries out of action at Churchill Downs. The questioned incidents had nothing to do with Lord Miles, but sometimes avoiding the Kentucky Derby's demands can help a horse long-range. Joseph's 2022 sophomore Skippylongstocking won the WV Derby last summer without running on the first Saturday in May. Tracking style he employed in 59-1 Wood Memorial upset would suit him well here behind Henry Q and Bishops Bay, perhaps launching first run before Two Phil's.

8-HAYES STRIKE: Deep closer would seem the most pace-compromised of the major players. He got away with it in the Texas Derby against the likes of Harlocap, but that likely won't work here. Trainer Kenny McPeek won this race back in 2003 with the lightly raced Wild and Wicked, but this is a much more seasoned type where the ceiling seems more evident. Should be trying late, but will need help.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
TWO PHIL'S had made 5 straight trifectas and 7 of his last 8. No reason to think that stops here.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HENRY Q gets a great rider fit, the rail draw and a race that doesn't promise to be too fast. At fourth choice on the morning line, he offers value (albeit not a true longshot).

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 exacta TWO PHIL'S over HENRY Q.