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Jon White: Ohio Derby Picks, Plus Ranking the Top 3-Year-Olds

by Jon White

June 22, 2023

Where in the heck have repeat winners in the three Triple Crown races gone?

Mage won the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby on May 6. National Treasure took the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes on May 20. Arcangelo then proved victorious in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes on June 10.

Since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in 2018, 15 different horses have won the 15 Triple Crown races, as shown below:

Year Winner (Race)

2023 Arcangelo (Belmont)
2023 National Treasure (Preakness)
2023 Mage (Kentucky Derby)
2022 Mo Donegal (Belmont)
2022 Early Voting (Preakness)
2022 Rich Strike (Kentucky Derby)
2021 Essential Quality (Belmont)
2021 Rombauer (Preakness)
2021 Mandaloun (Kentucky Derby)*
2020 Tiz the Law (Belmont)
2020 Swiss Skydiver (Preakness)’
2020 Authentic (Kentucky Derby)
2019 Sir Winston (Belmont)
2019 War of Will (Preakness)
2019 Country House (Kentucky Derby)**

*Medina Spirit finished first but was disqualified from the purse

**Maximum Security finished first but was disqualified for causing interference

Without a clear leader following this year’s Triple Crown events, the Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old male division is up for grabs during the remainder of 2023.

“It could be a fun summer in the 3-year-old division,” Daily Racing Form’s David Grening wrote following the Belmont Stakes.

Indeed, it could be, starting with the $500,000 Ohio Derby at Thistledown this Saturday (June 24).

Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil’s heads a field of eight entered in the Grade III Ohio Derby, which will be contested at 1 1/8 miles. He has been installed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. I expect that he will be 4-5 or lower when he exits the starting gate.

Two Phil’s is my top pick in the Ohio Derby. I’m not about to go against him after he ran such an admirable race to finish second in the Run for the Roses for trainer Larry Rivelli. Two Phil’s would have been my top pick in the Preakness, but his connections decided to not run him there, opting instead for the Ohio Derby.

After the Kentucky Derby, I wrote this for Xpressbet.com: “I think second-place finisher Two Phil’s deserves a tremendous amount of credit for running so well in defeat. Two Phil’s ‘was the only horse in close proximity to the pace to still be around at the finish,’ Daily Racing Form’s David Grening pointed out.

“By finishing second, Two Phil’s followed in the footsteps of his sire, Hard Spun, who ran second to Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

“Two Phil’s went into the Kentucky Derby off a dominant victory on a synthetic surface in Turfway Park’s Grade III Jeff Ruby. Hard Spun went into the Derby off a dominant win on a synthetic surface at Turfway in the same race, which at that time was the Grade II Lane’s End.

“Two Phil’s brings to mind rather similar Kentucky Derby performances by Congaree and Bodemeister. Congaree and Bodemeister both stayed on well enough to hit the board after attending a rapid pace. Congaree finished third to Monarchos and Invisible Ink in 2001. Bodemeister finished second to I’ll Have Another in 2012.”

I thinking cutting back in distance to 9 furlongs in the Ohio Derby from the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby is a big plus for Two Phil’s.

My selections for the Ohio Derby are below:

1. Two Phil’s (8-5 morning-line favorite)
2. Bishops Bay (3-1)
3. Henry Q (5-1)
4. Lord Miles (7-2)

Bishops Bay certainly merits much respect. Unraced as a 2-year-old, he won both of his starts in New Orleans during the winter. The Uncle Mo colt then ran quite well in his stakes debut when he finished a close second in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park on May 13. He lost the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan by only a head to Arcangelo, who subsequently registered a 1 1/2-length victory in the Belmont.

Brad Cox trains Bishops Bay, an Uncle Mo colt.

Henry Q finished third to Arcangelo and Bishops Bay in the Peter Pan.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Henry Q won the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park, then ran third in the Grade III Sunland Derby.

Henry Q is by Blame, who forever will be remembered for winning the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2010 at Churchill Downs when he edged Zenyatta to hand that great mare her lone defeat in 20 lifetime starts.

The Ohio Derby will be Lord Miles’ first start since he won Aqueduct’s Grade II Wood Memorial in a 59-1 shocker on April 8. That was the first stakes win for the Curlin colt in five career starts.

MY THREE-YEAR-OLD MALES TOP 10

This is how I rank the 3-year-old males at this time now that the Triple Crown races are in the rear-view mirror:

Rank Horse (Comment)

1.Two Phil’s (I loved his Kentucky Derby effort.)

2. Mage (He was hurt by slower pace in Preakness than at Churchill.)

3. Arcangelo (Excellent Beyer pattern -- 53, 70, 84, 97, 102.)

4. Forte (Splendid try to finish 2nd in Belmont off 10-week layoff.)

5. Arabian Knight (Untested in 2 starts and gearing up for return.)

6. Arabian Lion (109 Beyer in Woody Stephens triumph.)

7. National Treasure (Preakness hero lacks a triple-digit Beyer.)

8. Disarm (Big player rest of year after 102 Beyer in Matt Winn?)

9. Extra Anejo (Impressive win at Ellis Park to avenge lone loss.)

10. Geaux Rocket Ride (Headed to Haskell after Affirmed victory.)

Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):

Angel of Empire, Blazing Sevens, Hit Show, Practical Move, Skinner, Tapit Trice, Salute the Stars, Verifying.

MUTH LOOKS MARVELOUS

A $2 million auction purchase by Zedan Racing Stables in March, Muth kicked off his racing career with an 8 3/4-length debut victory in a five-furlong maiden special weight race as an overwhelming 1-5 favorite at Santa Anita last Sunday (June 18).

Muth, who is by 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic, has a smooth way of going. He was just cruising along while clicking off fast fractions of :21.60 for the first quarter-mile and :44.59 for the half. Even though he “won geared down,” according to the Equibase race chart, Muth completed five furlongs in a sparkling :57.29.

Last Saturday, Tranche completed five furlongs in :57.68 when he won Santa Anita’s Fasig-Tipton Futurity by 7 1/4 lengths in a 20-1 upset. I had made him 8-1 on the morning line.

A $210,000 auction purchase trained by Luis Mendez, Tranche was a maiden going into last Saturday’s race, though the Collected colt had run well enough to finish third in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 4.

Finishing second to Tranche last Saturday was 3-5 first-time starter Mirahmadi, a $1 million yearling buy named after Santa Anita track announcer Frank Mirahmadi, who will be the track announcer for the first time at Saratoga this summer.

I won’t be surprised if Mirahmadi, an Into Mischief colt, improves next time with a race under his belt.

In last Saturday’s Fasig-Tipton Debutante for 2-year-old fillies at Santa Anita, Northern California shipper Grand Slam Smile prevailed by a half-length at odds of 7-2. She completed five furlongs in :58.41.

Grand Slam Smile defeated a pair of highly regarded youngsters in Becky’s Dream, who finished second at 9-5, and Crazy Hot, who ended up third as the 3-5 favorite.

Becky’s Dream went into the Debutante off a 3 1/2-length win at first asking in a May 27 maiden special weight contest at Santa Anita. Crazy Hot won a maiden special weight race by 10 3/4 lengths when unveiled at Santa Anita on May 20.

Grand Slam Smile, a Smiling Tiger filly trained by Steve Specht, was racing on dirt for the first time last Saturday. In her only previous start, she scampered to a four-length maiden special weight win on a synthetic surface May 14 at Golden Gate Fields.

Look for Muth, Tranche, Mirahmadi, Grand Slam Smile, Becky’s Dream and Crazy Hot to compete at the upcoming Del Mar summer meet that commences on July 21.

LION HEART DIES

Kentucky-bred Grade I winner Lion Heart died recently in Turkey. He was 22.

The Jockey Club of Turkey issued a press release stating that Lion Heart “died due to circulatory disorder caused by heart failure.”

Lion Heart began his stud career in 2005 at Coolmore’s Ashord Stud in Kentucky. He was sold to The Jockey Club of Turkey in 2010.

I will never forget being impressed by Lion Heart when I was sitting in the press box at Santa Anita and watched him win his career debut by one length on Oct. 24, 2003. His final time for six furlongs was a sharp 1:09.24. He recorded a 96 Beyer Speed Figure.

In his next start, Lion Heart won Hollywood Park’s Grade III Hollywood Prevue Stakes by six emphatic lengths in 1:20.63 and was credited with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. In his final start at 2, he won the Grade I Hollywood Futurity by 3 1/2 lengths and notched a 99 Beyer.

Lion Heart had the misfortune to come along in the same crop as Smarty Jones. In the 2004 Kentucky Derby, which was run on a sloppy track, Lion Heart set the pace but had to settle for the place behind the undefeated Smarty Jones, who won by 2 3/4 lengths.

Trained by Patrick Biancone, Lion Heart got his second Grade I victory when he took the Haskell Invitational Handicap at Monmouth Park. It turned out to be the final win of his 10-race career.

AN IMPORTANT LONGACRES DEBUT 53 YEARS AGO

It was this week in 1970 that Turbulator made his first start at Longacres, the picturesque track near Seattle. He rallied to finish third in the 6 1/2-furlong Space Needle Handicap on June 21 that year.

By the end of the 1970 Longacres meet in mid-September, Turbulator had won five stakes races there. He broke the world record for 6 1/2 furlongs and the track record for 1 1/16 miles that had stood for 16 years.

There almost was no racing at all for Turbulator. He became ill as a 2-year-old in 1967 at Spokane’s Playfair Race Course in the spring of 1967, so much so that he very nearly died. That’s why he didn’t race at 2. Turbulaor’s owner, breeder and trainer, Tom Crawford, sent him to a farm that he had in Montana to await a 3-year-old campaign.

But there would be no 3-year-old campaign, either. A knee injury took care of that.

“The son of Cold Command and Fur Piece was romping in a pasture,” the Seattle Times’ Bob Schwarzman once wrote. “Not paying attention, the frisky bay crashed into a sprinkler and severely cut a knee. A trade with a neighbor was suggested. Crawford was willing to swap one gimpy horse for two white-faced heifers. The neighbor countered with a straight-up deal, one bovine for one equine. Tom balked, negotiations broke off, and he was doomed to nursing a horse not worth a brace of cows.”

Turbulator did finally make it to the races as a 4-year-old in 1969. I was at track called the Coeur d’Alene Turf Club in Idaho when he made his first career start on June 7. Turbulator finished third in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance race. It was an unofficial start, though, inasmuch as that track’s races would not have Daily Racing Form charts until the following year. That Coeur d’Alene race never appeared on his official record.

In his first two official races, Turbulator finished second twice later that June at Portland Meadows. He then took Playfair by storm, reeling off seven straight wins from Aug. 22 to Oct. 26. His victories came at distances ranging from six furlongs to two miles.

Turbulator won a total of 21 races during his career.

A head bust of Turbulator can be seen nowadays at the Washington Racing Hall of Fame exhibit located in the Emerald Downs grandstand. For many years, that same head bust greeted horses, trainers and visitors to the Playfair paddock.

Turbulator’s style was to drop far back early and close with a rush, a la Zenyatta decades later. Turbulator became a huge fan favorite, first at Playfair, then at Longacres. He became, without question, the most popular racehorse in the history of racing in the Pacific Northwest, as evidenced by all the Turbulator T-shirts, coffee mugs, campaign buttons and refrigerator magnets.

“If ever there was a horse that brought sheer joy and hysteria to a track and thrived on that crowd response it would be Turbulator,” an article in The Washington Horse magazine stated in 1973.

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 334 Cody’s Wish (29)
2. 293 Elite Power (5)
3. 237 Clairiere
4. 146 It Italian
5. 139 Defunded
6. 137 Up to the Mark
7. 128 Caravel
8. 102 Proxy
9. 73 Smile Happy
10. 58 Art Collector