Four of five winners in last Saturday’s Ellis Park pick five were 5-2 or less, including 2-5 and 6-5 shots, and it still produced a 679-1 return with an 8-1 top-end price. So when I look at this Saturday’s sequence and see rather logical players in the middle trio of legs, there’s still optimism to catch a fulfilling return.

Ellis | Race 6 | claiming

Really tough race starts things out, and if you choose to skip it, the late pick four beginning in the next race is a far cheaper alternative. There’s only one obvious toss among these 8 (Criminal Defense). The early speed, preferred in these elbow-starting dirt miles, comes from #1 River Boy, #3 Sprinklehead and #5 Smokin’ Hot. None of those are among the top-3 morning line choices. While there’s temptation to go 7-deep and hope for a price, that means you’re using the chalk defensively. That’s not the right gambling approach. Either be gutsy and use the trio of non-favored speeds, or bypass the pick 5 and attack the pick 4 aggressively next race.

Ellis | Race 7 | allowance

#4 Grand Love is not only the class of the race, but catches a 6-1/2 furlong sprint with very little early speed to it. Perhaps In Color, Charriere or Bennykayandsuzytoo could be sent up into the mix, but none seems to be a win threat to this Steve Asmussen stakes filly and would only present a target. The 5-2 morning line seems much higher than the likely price. Single Grand Love and win bet if price holds 2-1 or more, which I don’t anticipate. Look to a 4-2 daily double matching key picks in next two races.

Ellis | Race 8 | allowance

Love #2 Taking Candy as the day’s best bet at what figures to be second or third choice in the wagering. #5 Principe d’Oro is going to get bet for Todd Pletcher, even if his accomplishment has been on dirt. But Taking Candy is proven on grass and the last win at Churchill from a terrible post draw and with zero pace help whatsoever was doubly impressive. He’s now drawn beautifully in the 2-hole. Yes, we’re taking the 3-year-old vs. elders, but it’s nearly July, and if an older horse hasn’t gotten out of a start-up condition like a first-level allowance, that’s more of an indictment on them. You certainly could go 2-deep and include the favorite, but I’d rather bet the horse I like most twice as hard, then split my money in half to cover a questionable favorite making a surface change. Single Taking Candy and win bet. Look to a 2-2 daily double to the next race as well.

Ellis | Race 9 | Grade 3 Chicago Handicap

#2 Matareya’s best distance is 7 furlongs and she has pace versatility that should come in very handy in a race with Difaros, Society and Hidden Connection all capable of showing early speed. The 4-5 morning line favorite exits a Derby City Distaff win in which the 2-3 finishers came back to run 1-2 in the Bed O’ Roses at Belmont last Saturday. Trainer Brad Cox won this race last year with Lady Rocket and should double up with Matareya (pictured above).

Ellis | Race 10 | maiden special weight

If we catch a middle price in Leg A and the logicals in-between, another mid-level price in the finale here could get us into another solid return situation. Half of the 10 in the main body of the field have a winning cause to make. #10 Liquid Addiction has a tough post to overcome with a similar, mid-pack effort we saw at Keeneland. Tyler Gaffalione is going to have to use a bit more early if it’s there. #3 Kigali, #7 Brazilian Fury and #8 Eternal Bliss are similarly priced and not much discrepancy in perceived ability. Brazilian Fury may have slightly more upside of that trio. At 15-1 morning line, #4 Youngdumbandbroke is the price attraction. Freshened since a troubled debut at Turfway, draw a line through that one and consider a nice turf pedigree by Broken Vow out of an After Market mare. This is the one who could pop and worth a win bet as well as an exacta key-box with the others mentioned. #12 Cuore Sacro would be an inclusion if he draws in off the also-eligible list.

The Tickets

Pick 5 (begins Race 6): 1,3,5 with 4 with 2 with 2 with 3,4,7,8,10 = $7.50 for $.50 play

Pick 4 (begins Race 7): 4 with 2 with 2 with 3,4,7,8,10 = $2.50 for $.50 play