by Jeff Siegel
July 8, 2023
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” - National Best Plays
(listed in chronological order)
Those with a prior race in this maiden juvenile dash don’t inspire, so let’s zero in on a talented newcomer that appears fit and ready to win at first asking. A homebred 2-year-old that has done some excellent work in preparation for this five and one-half furlong sprint, the Florida-bred colt shows a healthy series of drills that includes a :48 4/5 half mile gate breeze last month while even with stable mate Big Effect, who ran so well last weekend when missing by a neck and far clear of the rest in a noteworthy debut. Previously, the Edward Plesa, Jr.-trained colt breezed a half in :47 3/5 that was third fastest of 22 for the distance. From a barn that has strong stats with debut runners, and with the stable’s “go-to” jockey taking the call, the son of Palace Malice offers an excellent gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at anywhere near his morning line of 3-1.
Talented colt makes his first start since November and could easily be a better type this time around, and as a winner of two of five starts including the Proud Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park last summer, he was pretty good when he left. The quick son of Bolt d’Oro returns in the Dade Park Dash in his first taste of grass racing, and there is no reason he shouldn’t be able to duplicate his dirt form on turf. From the rail in a field that lacks much early speed, the Fausto Gutierrez-trained sophomore projects to be on or near the lead throughout and based on his speed figures from his juvenile campaign he absolutely should be able to run with this group. With a sharp series of workouts (two recent bullets) and at or near his morning line of 7/2, he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
Brought $400,000 in the 20222 OBS April sale, and though taking more than a year to get to the races she looked every bit the part of that purchase price when a very unlucky third in her racing debut at Churchill Downs last month. The daughter of Mendelssohn was off poorly in that abbreviated grass dash to lose valuable position, was caught in heavy traffic until the head of the lane, then finished with purpose to be beaten less than a length before galloping out strongly. The Brian Lynch-trained filly was entered back on June 29 in a similar affair but was scratched when the race was taken off the turf, so she surfaces in this mile affair – a distance that should be well within her range - after breezing a half mile in a bullet :46 4/5 at Churchill Downs eight days ago, a move that was the fastest of 83 for the distance. Drawn nicely inside and from a barn that boasts strong stats with the second-time starter angle, she presents superior wagering value (if you can get it) at 5/2 on the morning line.
Undefeated in three career starts with rapidly rising speed figures, this sophomore filly gets tested in Grade-1 company for the first time in this year’s edition of the Belmont Oaks. Is she this good? We’re willing to find out if she closes on the tote at or near her morning line of 6-1. The longer priced of the two Chad Brown entrants, she retains Flavian Prat, who clearly had his choice between her and Wonder Again S.-G2 Prerequisite. Most recently, the daughter of Quality Road manufactured a powerful late kick to win the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico over a mile, and it remains to be seen if she can duplicate that type of late kick at this longer 10 furlong trip against what is clearly a tougher field. However, at the price, we’ll be gambling that she can.
We were completely blown away by Redistricting’s runaway debut maiden win last month and apparently trainer Chad Brown was too, as he wheels back the English-bred sophomore in this year’s renewal of the Belmont Derby Invitational despite the fact that he also will be represented by major contender and recent Pennine Ridge Stakes-G2 winner Kalik. The fact that he skips all of the available allowance conditions to run this gelding (one would think, what’s the rush?) in a Grade-1 event tells us he’s a believes the son of Kingman may very well be this good. Settling in mid-pack before unleashing a powerful late kick to win by almost five lengths despite being eased up late, this Klaravich Stables color bearer earned a speed figure that absolutely makes him competitive against this big boys. The outside draw at this 10 furlong distance is no bargain, but with any kind of decent trip under Flavian Prat he’s represents a reasonable investment at or near his morning line of 8-1.