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RACE OF THE WEEK: KELSO STAKES AT SARATOGA | SATURDAY, JULY 15, 2023

by Dustin Fabian

July 13, 2023

THE LEAD:

For the first time since September 2022, we have a Saturday of racing at Saratoga, making this the logical place to go for our Race of the Week focus. At one mile on the turf, the Grade 3 Kelso, formerly the Forbidden Apple, packs the perfect combination of field size and quality. And, as Race 9 (5:45PM ET), it falls right in the middle of the key multi-race sequences (Pick 6, Late Pick 5, Late Pick 4).


FIELD DEPTH:

CASA CREED is a three-time Grade 1 winner and a two-time winner at the ‘Spa,’ making him the logical starting point in discussing this race. He faces fellow Grade 1 winner, ANNAPOLIS, himself 2-for-3 at Saratoga, as well as BIG EVEREST and his own 4-race win streak.


PACE:

From a race shape perspective, BIG EVEREST figures to be a ‘need the lead’ and FILO DI ARIANNA has made the running in four of his last five races. He doesn’t ‘need’ the lead, but he seems to prefer it. Longshot MID DAY IMAGE stretches out from a trio of turf sprints and should ensure a fair setup for both the stalkers (ANNAPOLIS, ENGLISH BEE, ANACONDA) and closers (CASA CREED, ICE CHOCOLAT).


OUR EYES:

Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1 ENGLISH BEE – Motion/Velazquez – Is 7-for-31 in his career but has just one victory in the last two years and has not smiled for the camera after a stakes race since 2019. He projects a ground-saving trip from an inside draw and has knocked heads against quality runners like Annapolis, Emmanuel, Set Piece, Shirl’s Speight and Get Smokin, but often finds himself lacking a late-race punch. Might be valuable underneath in Tris and Supers, but not for me up top.

#2 ANNAPOLIS – Pletcher/Ortiz Jr. – Won the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland last fall against Casa Creed and others and the connections have seemingly had Saratoga on their minds since he won his seasonal debut at Churchill in the ungraded Opening Verse on May 4. He bypassed opportunities like the Manhattan and Wise Dan to show up here and you must think Team Pletcher is eyeing a Kelso/Fourstardave Double. He broke his maiden at Saratoga in fine fashion in 2021 and won the Grade 3 Saranac here as a heavy favorite last year.

#3 MID DAY IMAGE – Jacobson/Geroux – Goes sprint-to-route in here and figures to be a pace-player in a deep field. He ran a very strong race at Belmont two back going six furlongs but stretches the extra quarter of a mile here and just not able to envision a scenario where he gets the job done, especially stretching back out.

#4 ICE CHOCOLAT (BRZ) – Casse/Prat – Brazilian-bred has finished first or second in 10-of-16 career races, most of which having come at Woodbine. He did outrun his 63/1 odds when he rallied to finish 6th in the Grade 1 Jaipur, beaten only three lengths, but he’s another that has been doing his recent running in races shorter than this. He hasn’t stretched to a mile in a year and this field simply appears to be too deep.

#5 BIG EVEREST (GB) – Clement/Rosario – Has won six-of-seven races but has never ventured into water this deep before. Trainer Christophe Clement has done an expert job of getting him into the winner’s circle in stakes races at Aqueduct and Monmouth, including the Cliff Hanger last time out, but he’s going to face both inside and outside pace pressure and the closers in this field will be tough to hold off.

#6 FILO DI ARIANNA (BRZ) – Casse/Ortiz – Brings the opposite running style to stablemate Ice Chocolat, making for a potent 1-2 combo for trainer Mark Casse. I loved the race he ran last out in the G3 Poker at Belmont, beating Chez Pierre to the punch and then holding off everyone except for Emmanuel very late. He gets a new pilot today in Jose Ortiz, but clearly this horse’s best efforts have come when allowed to dictate pace on the front-end and you’d hate to see them take that from him on Saturday.

#7 ANACONDA – Sharp/Gaffalione – Was 16/1 when beaten less than a length in the Grade 3 Poker and he has a penchant for running on late to pick up a share of the prize. He has dangerously rounded into form all year for Joe Sharp and seems to be sitting on another competitive performance. He’s missed the Superfecta just twice in 10 starts for this barn and can be viewed as a sneaky add-in on Tris and Supers.

#8 CASA CREED – Mott/Saez – Had his personal two-race win streak in the Grade 1 Jaipur snapped last out by Caravel, but hard to find fault in that effort, off a layoff and from an outside post. Clearly the trip to Saudi Arabia in February didn’t take much out of him and have to think he’s sitting on a good pace scenario favorable to his running style. The outside draw isn’t ideal, but he’s going to drop back anyway, so thinking they attempt to save ground before unleashing his big kick.

#9 GUN IT (MTO) – Rice/Ortiz – It’s Saratoga in July, which means hot and humid and the potential for showers. But for the sake of the racing public, we hope we don’t see this main-track-only entrant on Saturday.


Most Certain Exotics Contender: ANNAPOLIS has missed the Exacta just once in nine starts and that came in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year. Otherwise, he has been a picture of consistency and has shown the versatility to win races from just about anywhere in the field.


Best Longshot Exotics Contender: If the pace materializes as projected, ANACONDA should find himself with a big chance of finding himself involved late. He may not have the top-end talent of ANNAPOLIS or CASA CREED, but he’s absolutely talented enough to perform at a decent price.


Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $4 Superfecta CASA CREED, ANNAPOLIS / CASA CREED, ANNAPOLIS / ANACONDA, ENGLISH BEE, ICE CHOCOLAT, FILO DI ARIANNA / ANACONDA, ENGLISH BEE, ICE CHOCOLAT, FILO DI ARIANNA ($96); $4 Win ANACONDA ($4)