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Frank Carulli: Saratoga Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, July 21, 2023

by Frank Carulli

July 20, 2023

With one eye on the weather forecast and another on a deep and talented lineup of entries, Saratoga Pick 4 players will have to keep their fingers crossed this Friday, July 21, as they dissect three turf races and an 11-horse Maiden Special Weight sprint that encompass the 50-cent wager. Here’s a closer look:

SAR 7th race (4:34 EST) -- With little separating those that have run, three first-time starters handled by Hall of Fame trainers and another by a four-time Eclipse Award winner, go deep in the first leg of the sequence and the only one scheduled for the main track. CREATE TROUBLE is my top choice off a strong seasonal debut at one mile when he posted faster middle fractions than a same-day, $80,000 allowance optional claiming race, only to get caught late.

SAR 8th race (5:10 EST) -- ARTORIOUS, a restricted stakes winner at this distance at Saratoga last year, made his seasonal debut in a one-mile Grade III stakes at Monmouth, dueling between rivals on the turn before he was passed by three rivals who were at least 4-wide at some point in the race. He finished a head behind Trademark, who posted a 96 Beyer next-out in winning a $100,000 stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. SPEED BIAS led the entire way in the Grade III Pimlico Special two back until he lost a bob at the wire to favored Rattle N Roll (8-19, $1.7 million), a four-time G-III winner who beat Speed Bias again in the G-I Stephen Foster. CURBSTONE and THE REDS are both proven allowance runners, three-time winners at 1-1/8 miles and good prices in today’s field.

SAR 9th race (5:44 EST) -- Mother Nature wreaked havoc on the Saratoga turf races during opening week and more rain is in the forecast this week. Trainer Chad Brown could have as many as five starters in the featured Grade III Lake George if it remains on the grass. With fingers crossed, use LIGURA and REVALITA on the Pick 4 ticket. LIGURA backed off the pace after an alert start, looked for running room mid-turn and closed with a 7-wide flourish to prevail in the $150,000 Wild Applause at one mile on the Belmont Park lawn. REVALITA rallied behind a pair of wire-to-wire longshot winners to finish in the money in the Grade II Wonder Again and Edgewood stakes, respectively, at longer distances on the grass.

SAR 10th race (6:18 EST) – LT. MITCHELL should be on or near the lead despite breaking from post 12 and can go a long way in a field that features only one runner-up finisher in 17 combined starts on turf. He backed off the early pace from the rail last out, waited for room at the top of the stretch, then steadied in traffic in mid-stretch while the top pair were in full flight. PRIX DE WEST took some money but was outrun in a debut 6F sprint that produced three next-out winners and two runners-up. The son of Classic Empire should appreciate the added ground and stepped it up with a :47.3 breezing workout for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, whose runners fire fresh.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket
SAR 7th Race: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11
SAR 8th Race: 1, 2, 3, 7
SAR 9th Race: 4, 5
SAR 10th Race: 7, 12
Cost for 50-Cent Ticket: $56