by Jeremy Plonk
August 3, 2023
The Lead:
It's true: Put the word 'Derby' in front of me and I'll bite. Sunday's West Virginia Derby puts second-half sophomores in the spotlight for a half-million dollars at Mountaineer. The 1-1/8 miles test will be Race 8 on a 9-race card that also features the Grade 3 West Virginia Governor's Stakes in the preceding heat. This 14-horse affair, which includes a pair of also-eligibles, boasts runners from no less than 8 different venues last time out. Let's hit the crossroads.
Field Depth:
LORD MILES is Grade 2 winner of the Wood Memorial and holds the field's signature score. RAISE CAIN is a Grade 3 winner. DREAMING OF KONA, ONE IN VERMILLION and RED ROUTE ONE are the field's listed stakes winners, the latter of which is Grade 1-placed. RED ROUTE ONE has kept the strongest company lines in the field, followed by RAISE CAIN and LORD MILES. Those 3 certainly have the class edge.
Pace:
DREAMING OF KONA should show early foot from the rail, but it's ONE IN VERMILLION who is the field's committed early speed. Wide-drawn WEST COAST COWBOY could be used harder early to avoid ground loss and contribute to what looks to be an average-to-modest pace for the class and distance. Deep closers will be against the race flow.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-DREAMING OF KONA: All 3 wins have come around 1 turn, and he's 0-for-3 around a pair of bends, much less never attempting a race this far. Lasix added will help, but 9F will stretch him.
2-LORD MILES: First Lasix for 59-1 Wood Memorial upsetter, who is sure to be an underlay price compared to his past form. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. won this race last year with Skippylongstocking, whose form felt a bit stronger than this. Bullet workout at Gulfstream before heading north and drawn very well.
3-TAPIT'S CONQUEST: The Brad Cox barn is 12-29 shipping to Mountaineer, but winless in 4 bids in the West Virginia Derby. Good second to top-class Arabian Lion in Pimlico's Sir Barton on Preakness Day, a race much stronger than it looks on paper. Determined Ellis allowance winner vs. $450K Asmussen who is well-regarded in preparation for this.
4-RED ROUTE ONE: Deep closer is devoid of any early speed and will need some pace help to deliver. Preakness fourth was blasted in the Belmont by 33+ lengths and diverted here vs. Haskell or Jim Dandy ... not a confident sign. No trainer has more WV Derby wins than Steve Asmussen's 5, so he does know which horses fit here. Prefer others.
5-LOOKA LOOKA: Recent $4,000 claim is wildly placed over his head.
6-MY MAN BIGGIE: Stakes-placed in Arizona and Colorado, this is a tough spot for his longest and biggest career test.
7-TIMESATAPPIN: Six straight losses at Thistledown don't inspire confidence for Mahoning Valley maiden breaker.
8-ONE IN VERMILLION: Speedball showed his Arizona form to be genuine when finishing just 4-1/2 lengths back in the Santa Anita Derby and then winning the Laz Barrera at Santa Anita. Tough-luck DQ loser in hard-fought Iowa Derby isn't one to back down. They will have to run him down to win.
9-GROVELAND: Added Lasix in Hawthorne allowance win and returns with it in this stakes reappearance. Grade 3 Sam F. Davis runner-up hit the sidelines after poor showing in the Tampa Bay Derby. Should be legged up after training on the Tapeta at Turfway all summer.
10-FARTLEK: Bombed in 3 straight at the $4,000 claiming level and totally overmatched.
11-RAISE CAIN: Had worst trip of all to this eye in the Kentucky Derby when eighth, a sneaky-good effort. Came back for decent runs in the Matt Winn and Indiana Derby, but admittedly expected more from this Grade 3 Gotham winner. Stronger closing kick in shorter races, making it questionable if he'll deliver a knockout punch at this 9F trip.
12-WEST COAST COWBOY: Third in February's Grade 3 Holy Bull, he didn't show much in the Florida Derby or Iowa Derby since that time. Longer-shot of the Saffie Joseph uncoupled pair in this race compared to Lord Miles. Top Penn National jockey Tyler Conner is a curious rider assignment, and he's got a tough task from this post.
13-RUSSIAN HAMMER (AE): Maiden claiming graduate from Hawthorne being asked a lot.
14-KNOCKOUT GUY (AE): 20-race local maiden would be without any chance if he draws in.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
TAPIT'S CONQUEST has a great draw, running style and recent company lines for success.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
GROVELAND should get a decent trip just behind the main speed and has only one poor race on his ledger.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win TAPIT'S CONQUEST. $40 daily double BEST ACTOR to TAPIT'S CONQUEST in a Race 7-8 stakes sweep for Brad Cox.