Log In

Jeremy Plonk: Pimlico Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, September 15, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

September 14, 2023

Pinch-hitting this week for Frank Carulli in the ‘Fridays with Frank’ space as he enjoys a week of vacation. Week two of the Pimlico short stand kicks off with a nine-race card at Old Hilltop where the late pick four has 40 horses in the entry box with two turf races bookending a pair of dirt allowance co-feature races. Clear skies are in the forecast.

Let’s get to work.

Pimlico| Race 6 | starter optional claiming turf sprint

The inside four runners all have a ton of early gate speed, so I’m looking for the pair of finishers in this race with the best late kick. #7 Lenten Rose should be beautifully drawn with all that speed leaving insider her and be able to save ground and rally. #11 Puppymonkeybaby goes for a red-hot Keiron Magee barn and has the most formidable closing move.

Pimlico | Race 7 | allowance sprint on dirt

Brittany Russell hasn’t missed often with previous Bob Baffert transfers from California to Maryland, so expect #7 Murray to be an even-money morning line favorite extremely tough to topple. All seven rivals here have appeared for at least one claiming tag in their careers, so there’s a wide class gap. Take the single, but that fact means a shorter overall payoff expected and therefore you’ll want to keep the number of combinations down in other races and not spread too thin.

Pimlico | Race 8 | allowance route on dirt

Standing against 2-1 morning line favorite #3 All Threes here, not sure he’s as good around two turns or at Pimlico vs. Laurel. Can also toss #4 Outlier in my plays. That leaves four legitimate contenders, including either half of the Jamie Ness coupling. Preferences to #5 Iywaan and #2 Everett’s Song, the latter 3-for-3 on the local main track.

Pimlico | Race 9 | claiming turf route

As with most any non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer, I’m giving the edge to horses with the strongest single victories on their resumes. #11 Cumberland Falls’ $50,000 level Gulfstream win during the strength of the Championship Meet in late March stands out vs. these. The turf form is solid and totally disregard the last start in a dirt sprint. Despite a large field size, resist the temptation to spread and utilize the real value in singling when others are diluting their tickets.

The Ticket
7,11 with 7 with 5,2,1,6 with 11 = $4 for $.50 play