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Frank Carulli: Laurel's Maryland Million Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, October 14, 2023

by Frank Carulli

October 12, 2023

It is hailed as “Maryland’s Day At The Races,” but the 38th running of the Maryland Million is a showcase of homebred talent for the entire country to see. The all-stakes, 12-race card this Saturday, Oct. 14, features six stakes with six-figure purses. There’s rolling daily double, Pick 3 and Super Hi-5 wagers all day, a Pick 6 starting in race 7 and two 50-cent Pick 4’s. Here’s a look at the Late Pick 4, covering races 9 through 12 and the featured $150,000 Classic:

LRL 9th race (3:38 P.M. EST) -- Five entrants in the $100,000 Maryland Million Nursery arrive off maiden victories, but KOHLER’S, one of two entrants yet to win, could be the horse to beat. He dueled between rivals to mid-stretch and ‘weakened slightly’ to finish third in a 6-1/2F MSW race at Parx that timed a full second faster at almost every call compared to the next race on the card – a $150,000 stakes for Pennsylvania-breds. POINT PELEE sustained a 4-wide rush on a sloppy track after he spotted the field a couple lengths at the break in his debut. He drew alongside the favorite on the turn and won the battle to the finish as the top pair separated. He’s worth using at 30-1 on the morning line. Trainer John Robb’s development of young horses laid the foundation for a 2,000-win career. CATAHOULA MOON, with go-to rider Xavier Perez aboard, appears the most formidable of Robb’s three entrants, but I’m using BIGDADDYSBOY, the longest shot of the trio, on the ticket. Expect a big move forward off a winning debut at Timonium that saw him kick into high gear late and continue strong on the gallop out.

LRL 10th race (4:09 P.M. EST) -- FILLE D’ESPRIT, voted Maryland’s Horse of the Year in 2022, is back to defend her title in the $100,000 Distaff. She ran third in the Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel Park in February and returned seven months later with an allowance victory to improve to 4-for-8 at 7F. Her sire, Great Notion, has produced a Maryland Million champion for 13 years running. MALIBU BEAUTY seldom runs a bad race, as her 25/6-8-4 record and $405,337 bankroll indicates. She couldn’t hold onto a clear lead in a 1-1/16-mile stakes race won by multiple graded winner Intetstatedaydream (6-13, $732K), but she could be primed to upstage a pair of runner-up finishes in this race the last two years. LUNA BELLE was visually impressive when she won four stakes in a row by a combined 17 lengths to begin her 3-year-old season. She then ran in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan but has only a strong work tab to show in the 17 months since then.

LRL 11th race (4:40 P.M. EST) -- DOUBLE CROWN followed a similar path into the $150,000 Maryland Million Classic last year, but the only Grade 2 winner in the field arrives in better form. He upstaged a runner-up finish in the 2022 Polynesian Stakes with a 4-1/4-length victory last month at Pimlico, equaling the third highest speed figure of his career. He saved ground throughout and blew past defending champ OURNATIONONPARADE and others in mid-stretch to build on his $500,000 bankroll. He breezed 4F in :48.3 at Laurel Park last Saturday and figures tough with a duplicate run. ALL THREES earned more than half of his $246,446 bankroll with two wins and three seconds in six route races as a 5-year-old this year. Now he must carry his speed 1-1/8 miles for the first time in his first stakes try. If BIG BLUE LINE or SUPER ACCELERATE draws into the Classic off the also-eligible list, add them to the Pick 4 ticket.

LRL 12th race (5:11 P.M. EST) -- BRILLIANT CHASE could be the horse to beat in $50,000 Maryland Million Turf Starter Handicap off a pair of thirds recently on the Laurel Park lawn. The four runners who finished ahead of him are all six-figure earners with a combined 20-for-93 mark on turf. NICK PAPAGIORGIO and IMAGINE IT ALL could prove profitable claims in their current form. NICK PAPAGIROGIO ran second to American Unity, who stands 3-for-3 on turf, and second to new stablemate Spiritual King, who opened long leads in winning three straight on turf. IMAGINE IT ALL set a solid pace and held third at 40-1 odds two starts back at one mile, then raced close-up and faded in the aforementioned 1-1/8-mile follow-up won by favored American Unity. He will be a big price, starting outside in the 14-horse field. THE LAST SCIP is another longshot to consider. He overcame trouble to win going away at one mile on soft footing at Laurel for a repeat victory off the claim, then met some heavy hitters in a follow-up allowance, the last time he ran long on the grass.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
LRL 9th Race: 3, 6, 8
LRL 10th Race: 2, 5, 10
LRL 11th Race: 2, 6
LRL 12th Race: 3, 5, 9, 14
Cost: $36