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Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Santa Anita | Sunday, October 15, 2023

by Jeff Siegel

October 15, 2023

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Exultation; 1-Jetovator; 5-Rager.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: There are several legitimate contenders in this $50,000 claiming turf sprint so we suggest a spread strategy in rolling exotic play. Smaller ticket players can focus on the three listed above. Exultation has his issues but always has been genuine and consistent while displaying excellent form over the local lawn. Away since mid-August, the veteran gelding has been sparingly raced throughout most of his career but anything close to his best race will make him hard to beat. A recent bullet training track breeze is encouraging. His Peter Eurton-trained stablemate Jetovator is a five-time winner over the Santa Anita course and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail post. He doesn’t always deliver when well-backed on the tote but he should at least be in the fray close home. Rager is a dangerous Bay Area invader with numbers that make him a major player. He’ll be running on late.


RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Into Yellowstone; 4-Greenteaze.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Into Yellowstone flashed good early speed to the turn before dropping out of the picture when chasing infinitely tougher straight maiden foes at Del Mar in her second career start last month. Against this group, she could clear early and get brave. Greenteaze is a first-off-the-claim for $32,000 by capable training Paul Aguirre after finishing a weakening third in a moderate race for the level. With any kind of forward move today for her new connections, the daughter of Firing Line should be reasonably competitive. Tread lightly here.


RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Mega Moon; 1-Worse Read Sanchez.
Backups/savers/Underneath: 8-Beef Winslow.

Forecast: Mega Moon has rising speed figures, good recent form, and more room for improvement than most of the others in this starter optional claiming turf miler. He picks up leading rider Juan Hernandez and appears fairly solid at 5/2 on the morning line. Worse Read Sanchez fits on numbers in his first start for a tag and lands the good rail, but as a winner of just one race from 20 starts he’s a hard one to trust.


RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Top Gun Tommy; 3-Rookie Mistake.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast Top Gun Tommy, a recent $10,000 Steve Knapp claim, moves up a notch after finishing a close second in a solid race at Del Mar last month. Not much better will be needed today. Rookie Mistake drops below his claim level and rates a look despite being winless in 12 starts over the Santa Anita main track. In a shaky affair, we’ll try to get by using just these two.


RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Gracelund Gray; 2-Kitty Kitana.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Gracelund Gray projects as the lone speed in this turf miler for second level allowance fillies and mares and given the likely pace flow could easily take control early and never look back. She went way too fast early in her recent comeback at Del Mar and paid the price late, but under the circumstances actually did quite well to hang on for third money. Slow down and survive today! Kitty Kitana is logically the one to beat but has burned money on several occasion and never seems to punch it in under pressure.


RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Sand to Sea; 3-Magic Wanderer.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Bajan Bashert; 7-Rhyme Or Reason.

Forecast Sand to Sea returns to dirt and appears to have found a proper spot to earn her diploma. In the frame in all three career starts, most recently when a close second in a turf sprint nine days ago, the daughter of Danzing Candy projects to be prominent throughout, and with a repeat of her only prior main track outing in her debut at Del Mar the Gary Stute-trained juvenile filly should be hard to handle. Magic Wanderer is a consistent Bay Area invader with three runner-up performances in her first three career starts. On numbers she’s a fit and she did run well on dirt at Santa Rosa in August.


RACE 7: Post: 3:30 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Kings River Knight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Kings River Knight is thoroughly genuine, consistent, and versatile. He can handle any surface or distance and was beaten a neck in a state-bred stakes in his only prior outing over the Hillside Turf Course. The John Sadler-trained gelding has won three of his last four starts with powerful speed figures and on paper looks like a 7/5 shot worth taking, assuming you can get that price.


RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ipanema Girl; 7-Vulin.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Stylish Dress.

Forecast: Ipanema Girl drops to the bottom after a pair of unplaced runs vs. tougher but against this group the Carla Gaines-trained filly should be competitive. Lightly raced with the room to improve that most of the other exposed runners don’t have, the daughter of Strong Mandate shows a healthy recent work tab that should have her fit enough for a good effort in her first outing since late July. A little will go a long way here. Vulin is a 10-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but on numbers she’s a fit and is a major contender by default.


RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Golden Again
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Tizzy Twister.

Forecast: Golden Again rates the edge in a grass grab bag in which nothing would surprise. The daughter of Paynter has hit the board in five of six career starts over the local lawn (with two wins) and from her good inside draw projects to enjoy a comfortable ground-saving, second flight journey. With three solid breezes since raced, the Steve Knapp-trained sophomore should be set for a top effort and have excuses.


RACE 10: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Mr. Leasure
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Concord Bridge; 2-Lake Superior.

Forecast: Mr. Leasure stepped forward considerably between his debut and his second start when finishing a strong runner-up over a wet fast track in a good maiden special weight sprint here last month. With the coveted two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and a pedigree that okay’s this one mile trip, the son of Distorted Humor looks ready to graduate for trainer Doug O’Neill. Let’s hope he doesn’t get parked out wide from his outside draw entering the clubhouse turn.


RACE 11: Post: 5:30 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Summer Lake; 1-Warren’s Paradice.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: We always thought Summer Lake had a bit more ability than she showed in a pair of outings in the spring of 2022 and maybe she’ll be a better type this time around. The Carla Gaines-trained filly shows a fairly decent recent work tab to have her fit and ready, and in this state-bred maiden miler she really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a gamble. Warren’s Paradice, beaten a neck in a similar affair at Del Mar last month, is the likely choice and strictly the one to beat.