The Lead:
Closing weekend at Churchill Downs features the annual juvenile anchors on the Kentucky scene, the Golden Rod for the fillies and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes for the colts who could have an eye toward next year's Run for the Roses. The 1-1/16 miles Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes goes as Race 11 on Saturday's card, the next-to-last of the meeting before the regional scene shifts to Turfway Park for the winter.

Horseplayers on the Xpressbet and 1/ST BET platforms this holiday weekend can take part in the $10,000 Thanksgiving Stakes Contest, which includes the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

​Field Depth:
DANCING GROOM is Grade 1 placed, while RISK IT is Grade 3-placed. The others are trying to make their first real dents into the stakes ranks. Class is always a difficult assessment with lightly raced 2-year-olds as we don't yet know just good the maiden and stakes fields they've faced will turn out to be.

Pace:
Wide-drawn ONE RED CENT has been on the front in back-to-back sprints and likely will be sent to the front by hustling rider Gerardo Corrales. Look for RISK IT and STRETCH RIDE to fall into excellent, first-over trips. This should not be an overly fast pace.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-AWESOME ROAD: Ellis debut winner was well-backed when flat in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and took 20 days to get back on the workout tab thereafter, a bit longer than you'd like to see. Trainer Brad Cox won this race last year with Instant Coffee, who was coming off a more promising fourth in that same Keeneland stakes.

2-HONOR MARIE: Late-running sprinter exits a runner-up in allowance company Oct. 29 over the Churchill main track and meets stakes horses and routers for the first time. The last 10 winners of this race all exited preps at a mile or longer with 8 of those exiting stakes bids, so this is a double-hurdle to climb.

3-REAL MEN VIOLIN: It took 5 tries to break his maiden, but this son of Mendelssohn won't lack for foundation and fitness given all those bids were races at a mile or more. Trainer Kenny McPeek won this race two years ago with Smile Happy, who also stepped up off a maiden victory, but that one was a debut victor with faster success.

4-DANCING GROOM: Son of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso was a late-running third of 8 in Aqueduct's Grade 1 Champagne after breaking his maiden by 5 at Saratoga in his second attempt. Gulfstream-based trainer Antonio Sano wasn't afraid to travel with similarly late-running juvenile Gunnevera when possessing one with talent.

5-NOMOS: Uncle Mo colt has raced on turf in all 3 starts to date, finishing out of the money in the With Anticipation at Saratoga and Bourbon at Keeneland. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Kentucky Jockey Club in 2009 with eventual Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and again in 2011 with Gemologist. Luis Saez aims for back-to-back here after guiding Instant Coffee to the '22 KJC score. Strong workout last Saturday for this indicates he may like dirt.

6-STRETCH RIDE: Unbeaten after a Churchill sprint debut and a Keeneland route allowance, this son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense should get a great trip near the front. Dale Romans trainee was back on the workout tab 10 days after his last win and drilling right on cue for natural class rise.

7- RISK IT: Saratoga debut winner was a solid runner-up as the 6-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes over this track in September. Five works on pattern for stakes reapperance and this Gun Runner colt who brought $500,000 is supposed to be this kind. The horse to beat for Steve Asmussen, who won this race in 2005 with Private Vow and again in 2019 with Silver Prospector.

8-ONE RED CENT: Maiden claimer took 7 tries to break through but should be a factor early in ho this race plays out. Hard to project him seeing it out in the stretch, however.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
RISK IT fits the KJC winning profile the last decade exiting a stakes race (8 of last 10 winners), exiting a top-3 finish (9 of last 10) and prepping at a mile or more (10 of last 10). DANCING GROOM is the other that fits the profile bill, but pace-wise RISK IT should have the easier trip of it Saturday near the front.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
At 12-1 morning line, NOMOS has some appeal for obviously strong connections and with a recent workout indicating he may take to the CD dirt as many with turf experience have over the years. We saw Airoforce win the Kentucky Jockey Club in 2015 with a similar turf-to-dirt move, but it's been a while.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$55 win RISK IT. $15 exacta part-wheel RISK IT over NOMOS, STRETCH RIDE, DANCING GROOM ($45).