by Jeremy Plonk
November 29, 2023
Wednesday’s season-opening card at Turfway Park boasts full fields throughout the night and nine races that get underway at 5:55 pm ET. The average winner at last year’s Turfway stand was a whopping 6.6-1 odds with favorites clicking at 29.5%, according to Betmix stats. You typically see at most tracks about 10% of races won by horses 10-1 or more odds; at Turfway last year that number was north of 16%.
Don’t be bashful when it comes to opinions at Turfway. Here are my top three plays for opening night:
Race 2 | 6:25 pm ET | #12 Strawberry Lemonade (8-1 ML)
The 12-hole sprinting 5 furlongs doesn’t seem ideal, but Betmix stats show that 34 races with 10 or more starters at this Turfway trip have produced the same number of winners from posts 10-12 (6) as posts 1-3 (6). The perception could help the price, but this massive class dropper benefits most from jockey Joseph Ramos, whose exceptional 6-20 (30%) career mark at this local, 5-furlong dash distance has included 25-1 and 40-1 winners. There's already one early scratch announced to help save a bit of ground.
Race 5 | 7:55 pm ET | #5 Playback (5-1 ML)
Trainer Paulo Lobo has just this lone starter on the opening-night program, and consider this barn won 38% (11-29) at Turfway during the first month of the 2022-’23 season. This exceptionally well-bred son of Into Mischief-Blue Prize stretches out around two turns after a decent fourth at Churchill in a race where the runner-up stretched out around two turns to romp next time out in a CD MSW. With Ward, Cox, Maker, Casse et al involved, the price should hold appeal.
Race 9 | 9:55 pm ET | #8 C’Est Cheese (12-1 ML)
Sire City of Light has had remarkable success with limited offspring at Turfway, winning 4 of 11 with a runner-up to boot. This third-time starter ran well in her Keeneland debut before bombing at Churchill when adding blinkers and never getting a breather when between horses much of the early trip. The blinkers are off and there’s very little speed to her outside in the gate here, so she may be more comfortable stalking wide.