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Jeremy Plonk: Oaklawn Pick 5 Analysis | Saturday, December 9, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

December 8, 2023

Saturday’s late pick 5 at Oaklawn Park includes a pair of opening-weekend stakes races as its 2023-’24 season launches. It’s a great example of the simplicity in handicapping Oaklawn, where everything is on the main track and there are few distances offered throughout a card. Each of these races is either 6 furlongs or 1 mile, the latter around a pair of turns.

Here’s how I see each of the sequence:

Oaklawn // Race 6 // Ring the Bell Stakes
#6 Tejano Twist (pictured above)
#7 Ryvit
#4 Top Gunner

Comments: Classy and consistent #6 Tejano Twist has run some of his best races at Oaklawn and will be rallying to make them sweat late. #7 Ryvit comes off a career-best effort and has won 3 of 4 locally while taking on 3-year-olds. The test gets tougher, but capable. #4 Top Gunner is another strong horse-for-course and fired a bullet workout locally Dec. 2 to signal he could make a huge leap forward in his second start off an extended layoff.

Oaklawn // Race 7 // Allowance
#5 Halmstad
#9 Megan’s Honor
#11 B Sudd

Comments: #5 Halmstad chased a good group of 3-year-olds in the $300K Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning after impressing at Keeneland. Should fit with this group of elders. #9 Megan’s Honor goes for a dominant jockey-trainer combo at Oaklawn in Arrieta-Becker and blasted easier last time. #11 B Sudd adds blinkers fresh off the claim. I like to see a good trainer like John Ortiz make changes when acquiring a new talent.

Oaklawn // Race 8 // Maiden Special Weight
#4 Orange Diablo

Comments: Brad Cox trainee #4 Orange Diablo narrowly missed at 3-5 last time at Churchill Downs and will be a tote standout against this crew. Cleared his maiden debut with ease before a questionable DQ. If you’re aching for an upset or the top play scratches, #8 Pendrod and first-time starter #11 Imperial Gun interest most of the rest.

Oaklawn // Race 9 // Mistletoe Stakes
#2 Misty Veil
#10 Ice Orchid

Comments: In what figures to be a very hot pace, I’ll use two closers who can finish the deal, but they’ll have to hustle with the sixteenth-pole finish line in play. #2 Misty Veil exits tougher spots against Distaff division powers Search Results and Xigera. Strong jockey-trainer combo with Castillo-Maker and draws fantastic in the two-hole. #10 Ice Orchid has won just 1 of her last 9 but can sit just off the tempo and has paired well with jockey Santana in all 3 of her career wins. Tough post to overcome, but the speed in this race could spread out into the clubhouse turn. Tighter budgets could opt to single #2 Misty Veil and half the cost of the ticket.

Oaklawn // Race 10 // Allowance
#7 WW Scout’s Honor
#8 Hey Eugene
#11 Gunflash
#12 Spend Benjamins

Comments: Another race with a hot pace and expecting one of these to get up late, but it’s no easy task over 6 furlongs. #7 WW Scout’s Honor may have more tactical speed than the others and get first run, similar to his May 6 local runner-up in a fast time. #8 Hey Eugene fits back at Oaklawn after success here this spring. Ohio-bred took easy checks vs. state-breds, but should be moving late against these. #11 Gunflash was just best at Remington last time and led them all the way, but previous form sitting off the pace looks more realistic Saturday. Top pilot Torres takes over. #12 Spend Benjamins has been more successful against lesser, but recent form indicates he can play at this level and could get the last surge.

The Ticket
6,7,4 with 5,9,11 with 4 with 2,10 with 7,8,11,12 = $48 for $.50