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Race of the Week: Prairie Bayou Stakes at Turfway | Saturday, December 16, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

December 14, 2023

The Lead:
The horse-for-course angle will be on full tilt Saturday at Turfway Park as many of the most successful local stakes performers in recent years converge for the $125,000 Prairie Bayou Stakes. The 1-1/16 miles test lured a capacity field of 12 with a pair of also-eligible runners and goes as Race 7 on the card.

Field Depth:
Grade 2 winners include WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST, TEMPLE and WAR BOMBER, while the Grade 3-level successes number a half-dozen more in LIKE THE KING, TIZ THE BOMB, RUNAWAY STORM, KITODAN, CELLIST and PACKS A WAHLOP. This is an extremely strong non-graded stakes lineup.

Pace:
WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST may be most intent on the front in a race that has a fair amount of early interest. RUNAWAY STORM and wide-drawn WAR BOMBER and PACKS A WAHLOP figure close-up, as does HUSH OF A STORM. He doesn't always fire to the front, but OCEAN ATLANTIQUE is more than capable of being up top from post 2. There should be enough pace here that a late-running sort has every chance if he delivers his best.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-LIKE THE KING: The 2021 Jeff Ruby winner has a sharp local record, but has won just once in 14 starts the past 2 seasons. Strong morning worker continues to put up fast a.m. times for this and could wake up with a great draw. Mark Casse-Fernando de la Cruz don't team often, but did so for $41 stakes winner Get Smokin at Kentucky Downs this year.

2-OCEAN ATLANTIQUE: February's local Dust Commander stakes winner scored wire-to-wire in that one, but hasn't been asked for the same kind of speed since. Red-hot rider Luan Machado takes over on this Mike Maker-trained son of American Pharoah whose current form is peaking.

3-TEMPLE: Seven-year-old is just 1-for-10 since joining Mike Maker's barn in 2021 and that victory was a year and a half ago. Classy turf marathoner asked for new surface and more brilliance at this shorter trip.

4-TIZ THE BOMB: The 2022 Jeff Ruby winner at Turfway has fallen on hard times since with 12 straight out-of-the-money finishes. The synthetic return will have to be the wakeup call for this Kenny McPeek trainee, who at least has been consistent in terms of Beyer Speed Figures during the losing streak.

5-HUSH OF A STORM: Third in this race in 2021 as a 3-year-old, this Bill Morey trainee has been steady as they come with 9 straight top-4 finishes. His 3 local wins include the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. Jockey Gerardo Corrales has a strong 28% win rate teaming with Morey in recent years.

6-RUNAWAY STORM: Sophomore meets elder stakes rivals for the first time while in superior form. He won Keeneland's Grade 3 Bryan Station last out, and prior to that was a sharp third in the Virginia Derby at Colonial behind a pair of next-out major stakes winners in New York & Califronia. All 5 starts have been on turf, where he's been pace versatile, but certainly capable of going to the front. Sire Midnight Storm just 3-44 on the Turfway main track, however.

7-WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST: Turfway's Kentucky Cup Classic winner in March makes his second stop in Florence and has been a synthetic dynamo everywhere he's gone -- including Woodbine and Gulfstream. All of his recent wins have come when contesting the early lead, so expect new pilot Tyler Conner to employ those tactics. Rarely misfires in spots when expected to compete like this.

8-KITODAN: Deep closer wants the pace as fast as he can get it, and did win the 2022 Rushaway Stakes here in his only local appearance. Popped a 20-1 upset to win the Dueling Grounds Derby last year, but hasn't been up to that form at all in 5 starts this year.

9-CELLIST: Last year's Prairie Bayou Stakes runner-up has just 1 win in his last 12 starts and meets a deeper cast, top-to-bottom, this time around. But he's run well enough on most occasions to give exotics consideration, though value in the win pool seems more than the 8-1 morning line price offering.

10-WAR BOMBER: Rare road game for Woodbine-based runner who has made 20 of 22 starts at home. He's danced all the big dances in Canada and has performed admirably ... though shorter distances appear to be his strong suit, based on pedigree and past performances. Wide draw makes ground loss probable with his running style.

11-PACKS A WAHLOP: Prime west coast 2-year-old turfer in 2022 has been totally off the mark all season. Moves to Bill Morey's barn and changes venues and surfaces in hopes of a major reversal. Workouts sharper than his usual since arriving at TP.

12-LEAVE IT TO KITTEN: Veteran 7-year-old won from post 12 last time and will have same challenge while in pursuit of a 3-race winning streak. Those wins were on grass and notably just 2-19 lifetime on the Turfway synthetic, racing against weaker competition when last seen here.

13 AE-FAIR DINKUM and 14 AE-VINTAGE PRINT: The also-eligibles will be hard-pressed to overcome the post draw if they're fortunate enough to draw in. Neither has experience on the Turfway synthetic nor any discernible edges that would make me want to overlook the likely wide trip.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
HUSH OF A STORM fires each and every time with an honest effort, is well-drawn and pace versatile to be in the hunt under most any scenario.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
At 12-1 morning line, there's no reason HUST OF A STORM can't fit this space, too. He's the right horse at the right price. If you're looking for boxcars late in the super, KITODAN could come from the clouds at a big number to spruce things up.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win HUSH OF A STORM. $20 exacta box WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST and HUSH OF A STORM ($40).