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Race of the Week: Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream | Saturday, December 23, 2023

by Jeremy Plonk

December 20, 2023

The Lead:
Usher in the extended Christmas weekend with top sprinters at Gulfstream Park in the 7-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes. A field of nine has entered and it goes as Race 10 on the card.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner SIBELIUS leads a classy bunch that includes Grade 2 winners HOWBEIT, SCARAMOUCHE and LONG RANGE TODDY. Meanwhile, GILMORE is Grade 1-placed and GREAT NAVIGATOR is Grade 2-placed. SIBELIUS and LONG RANGE TODDY have consistently held the strongest company lines in the field.

Pace:
There's no absolute blast-out dirt sprinter here, but several should contest the front. SIBELIUS pressed the leader in winning here last year and front-end company comes from HURRICANE J, DREAMING OF KONA, GREAT NAVIGATOR, LONG RANGE TODDY and potentially turf miler WINFROMWITHIN, though less confident he can show dirt sprint speed.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-GREAT NAVIGATOR: New Jersey-bred stakes winner showed class when an honorable third in the Grade 2 Vosburgh last out, beaten 4-3/4 lengths by two-time Breeders' Cup champion Cody's Wish. Showed 45-and-change speed at Monmouth and will have to employ max effort from the rail or get stuck inside. Capable on his best.

2-HOWBEIT: The 2022 Santa Anita Sprint Championship winner has had nothing go right in 2023, losing all 7 starts and mustering only a couple of third-place finishes. Lacked speed in his first try for move-up trainer Bill Morey in a Churchill claimer last time and will need improvement and a hot pace.

3-SCARAMOUCHE: The lone 4-year-old in the field in a race notably won the last 6 years by fellow 4-year-olds. That's the good news. The bad? His worst career race came in his only prior try at Gulfstream and he's dropped 6 straight since winning the 2022 Grade 2 Gallant Bob at Parx - when ridden by Saturday's pilot John Velazquez.

4-WINFROMWITHIN: Three-time Mr. Prospector Stakes-winning jockey Luis Saez has the task of turning back this fast turf miler to a dirt sprint. The Into Mischief son did win over 7 furlongs on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs in April 2022 and is 3-for-4 in the exacta on fast dirt lifetime. Absolutely fits on speed figures for trainer Bill Morey, who also has Howbeit entered.

5-HURRICANE J: The 7-furlong trip is the hurdle for this son of Nyquist, who has been beaten 17 lengths and 21-1/2 lengths in his prior bids beyond 6-1/2 furlongs. But his last wire-to-wire victory over this track November 19 points him in the right direction of the form cycle and high-percentage connections of Jorge Delgado and Irad Ortiz Jr. will instill some fear in tossing.

6-DREAMING OF KONA: Opened 2023 with a victory in Gulfstream's Mucho Macho Man Stakes at the 1-turn mile trip and was most recently third locally over 7 furlongs, the Mr. Prospector trip. In-between he's been inconsistent, but does strike that 7 furlongs should be his best fit in distance.

7-GILMORE: Rallying third in June's Grade 1 Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard, he's back to a preferred sprint trip after floundering in the 9-furlong Pennsylvania Derby over a bog of a track. Extended 1-turn races have been his best trip and he should be finishing as a threat under Jose Ortiz for Brendan Walsh. Only two sophomores have won this race since 1980, but he's in with a shot.

8-LONG RANGE TODDY: Seven-year-old veteran has made $1.2 million all over the country (remember his 2019 Rebel win at Oaklawn?), but has made his new home in South Florida successful with back-to-back wins since coming to Victor Barboza's barn. Those summer races have been followed by a sporadic published workout tab since, offering questions. Best is good enough.

9-SIBELIUS: Defending Mr. Prospector champion rolled through the winter/spring last year and included the $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan. But his three starts since the international journey have disappointed, off the board at Churchill, Del Mar and Keeneland in stakes company. Would be the first back-to-back winner of the Mr. Prospector, though XY Jet did win this race in non-successive years (2015, 2017).

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
No standouts in this category, but GILMORE is 7-for-7 in the superfecta at a mile or shorter.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
The turf form of WINFROMWITHIN will likely produce an overlay price on the tote, but he's capable at 7 furlongs on dirt.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$20 exacta key-box WINFROMWITHIN with SCARAMOUCHE and GILMORE ($80). $5 exacta key-box WINFROMWITHIN with GREAT NAVIGATOR, LONG RANGE TODDY ($20).