When I make stakes selections for Xpressbet.com, there are some races in which I have a difficult time deciding who to pick on top.
The Gun Runner Stakes isn’t one of them. For me, this was about as easy as it gets.
Nash is my top pick. How could he not be? After all, he sits atop my current Top 10 for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, as listed below:
1. Nash
2. Fierceness
3. Nysos
4. Locked
5. The Wine Steward
6. El Capi
7. Muth
8. Sierra Leone
9. Dornoch
10. Timberlake
Nash is scheduled to face seven foes in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds. He is the 7-5 favorite on the morning line.
From the rail out, the Gun Runner field consists of Next Level, Catching Freedom, Risk It, Neat, Footprint, Nash, Snead and Track Phantom.
As someone who makes the morning lines at Santa Anita and Del Mar, I don’t relish knocking the morning line at some other track. But I have to call them as I see them. In my opinion, there is zero chance that Nash’s odds will be 7-5 or higher when he exits the starting gate in the Gun Runner. If he isn’t 4-5 or lower, I will be shocked.
As I have stated many times when writing for Xpressbet.com, Beyer Speed Figures have a big impact in terms of how heavily a horse gets bet.
Nash was credited with a 97 Beyer when he won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race in front-running fashion by 10 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs on Nov. 12.
The next-best Beyer Speed Figure recorded by any of Nash’s Gun Runner opponents is Track Phantom’s 88. Below is the top figure so far for each of the Gun Runner entrants:
97 Nash
88 Track Phantom
80 Neat
80 Snead
79 Next Level
79 Risk It
77 Catching Freedom
73 Footprint
As you can see, Nash’s 97 Beyer stands out. And I have no doubt that he will be bet accordingly.
Speaking of betting, Horseracingnation.com’s Ron Flatter reported this week that Nash has “attracted action” in the futures market at Circa Sports in Las Vegas and at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
The consensus favorite in Nevada for the Kentucky Derby is Dornach, who is the 11-1 favorite at Circa and co-15-1 favorite with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness at Caesars.
“Nash, the maiden winner who is the 7-5 morning-line favorite Saturday in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds, attracted action at both Nevada shops,” Flatter wrote. “The Brad Cox-trained colt by Medaglia d’Oro went from 40-1 to 18-1 at Caesars and from 18-1 to 15-1 at Circa.”
A couple of weeks ago when Circa began taking wagers on the 2024 Kentucky Derby, “people bet Dornoch like they knew he had won,” Circa oddsmaker Paul Zilm said. “Then it was Nash.”
I plead guilty as being someone who contributed to the Nash action at Circa that seems to have played a role in having his odds drop from 18-1 to 15-1.
I made a Kentucky Derby future wager on Nash at 18-1 at Circa last Thursday while I was in Las Vegas. I previously also essentially made a Kentucky Derby future wager on Nash by putting money on his sire, Medaglia d’Oro, at 18-1 in the recent Kentucky Derby Sire Wager. Between these two future wagers, if Nash does win the Kentucky Derby, I will make $13,910.
Of course, my dream of making a lot of cash by making future wagers on Nash to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby could pretty much go down the drain as early as this Saturday if he runs a disappointing race in the Gun Runner. That’s why it’s called gambling.
Brad Cox trains Nash. Cox won last year’s last year’s Gun Runner with Jace’s Road, who prevailed by 5 1/2 lengths. Jace’s Road later finished third in this year’s Grade II Louisiana Derby and 17th in the Grade I Kentucky Derby.
Epicenter, a Not This Time colt trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, was a 6 1/2-length winner in the inaugural running of the Gun Runner in 2021. Epicenter would go on in 2022 to win the Grade II Risen Star Stakes, Grade II Louisiana Derby, Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes and Grade I Travers Stakes.
Runner-up to 50-1 longshot Rich Strike in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, Epicenter was voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.
Silent Candy, a Candy Ride mare, produced Epicenter. Candy Ride is the sire of Gun Runner.
I am hoping that Nash proves a punctual favorite in this year’s Gun Runner and then goes on to win the 2024 Run for the Roses.
Considering how much money I could possibly win by betting Nash in Kentucky Derby future wagers, I certainly was quite pleased to subsequently read what Cox said about him in a Gun Runner stakes preview from the Fair Grounds media relations department on Tuesday.
“This is a good horse,” Cox said. “He’s very intelligent, does everything right, a super work horse.”
Nash had a five-furlong Fair Grounds workout timed in 1:01.60 last Friday (Dec. 18).
“He had a good move on Friday,” Cox said. “We’re looking forward to facing winners for the first time on Saturday.”
Nash finished second when unveiled in a six-furlong maiden sprint at Keeneland on Oct. 7. That was followed by his marvelous maiden win at Churchill.
“It was a dominant performance,” Cox said of Nash's maiden victory. “He’s given us confidence. Based on how he works, he appears to have multiple gears. He really has a turn of foot. When the rider calls upon him, he accelerates quickly. We’re still trying to figure him out with only two runs under his belt, but he’s a nice talent.”
By the way, when Nash lost his first race, he received an 84 Beyer, which is higher than the best figure recorded by all of the Gun Runner entrants other than Track Phantom’s 88.
It’s also evident that Cox is sky high on Nash from what the trainer told Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh earlier this month.
“I like him a lot,” Cox said. “He’s the best [2-year-old] I got for sure.”
Below are my Gun Runner selections:
- Nash (7-5 morning-line favorite)
- Track Phantom (7-2)
- Risk It (5-1)
- Snead (6-1)
Asmussen, who trained Gun Runner, conditions Track Phantom and Risk It.
Track Phantom is by Quality Road, who is the sire of 2022 Gun Runner winner Jace’s Road.
After losing his first two starts, both at Churchill, Track Phantom won a 1 1/16-mile contest by 4 3/4 lengths there on Nov. 25. The aforementioned 88 Beyer recorded by Track Phantom came in that maiden victory.
Risk It, by Gun Runner, is attempting to win a race named after his sire.
Joel Rosario, who was aboard Track Phantom in his sparkling maiden score, is named to ride Risk It in the Gun Runner. Tyler Gaffalione was Risk It’s pilot in all three of his starts to date.
I think it’s very interesting that Rosario is not sticking with Track Phantom. Is it a clue that Risk It has a better chance to win the Gun Runner than Track Phantom? Maybe. Maybe not.
Snead, who is by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, sports an improving Beyer Speed Pattern that makes him dangerous in the Gun Runner. In four starts, he’s recorded Beyers of 54, 55, 66, then 80.
Trained by Brendan Walsh, Snead lost his first two races, which were on the grass. He’s two for two on the dirt. He splashed home a 1 1/2-length maiden winner on a sloppy track Oct. 29 at Churchill, then won a Fair Grounds race by 7 1/4 lengths for allowance/optional claimers at 1 1/16 miles on dry land Nov. 23.
Snead’s dam, Raffle Ticket, is a daughter of 1992 Horse of the Year and 2000 Hall of Fame inductee A.P. Indy.
GUNNER RUNNER’S BC CLASSIC RECALLED
Each year going back to 2004 for Xpressbet.com, I have listed what I consider to have been the Top 10 performances by a Thoroughbred in the United States during the year. Gun Runner’s win in the BC Classic at Del Mar ranked No 1 for 2017.
This was what I wrote for Xpressbet.com regarding Gun Runner’s 2017 BC Classic victory:
“Gun Runner put an exclamation point on his outstanding 2017 campaign when he registered a 2 1/4-length win in the BC Classic with the Horse of the Year title on the line. He was a perfect five for five on American soil in 2017. His lone defeat during the year occurred when he ran second to Arrogate in the Group I Dubai World Cup. But by virtue of Gun Runner’s win in the BC Classic, in which Arrogate was among the vanquished, Gun Runner was able to gain sweet revenge for his loss to Arrogate in Dubai.
“Even though Arrogate lost his next two starts after his Dubai triumph, if he had won the BC Classic, there no doubt would have been considerable support for him as Horse of the Year. But Arrogate never threatened in the BC Classic and finished in a dead heat for fifth, while Gun Runner’s sparkling victory sewed up the 2017 Horse of the Year title.
“Gun Runner was assigned a career-best 117 Beyer Speed Figure for his BC Classic win.
“Not only does Gun Runner’s BC Classic rank No. 1 on this list because he won such an important event, his performance was especially impressive because, in addition to beating a strong group of opponents, he beat the track bias. Gun Runner won the BC Classic in front-running fashion while racing on the inside part of the track. Many observers believe that the inside was not the place to be that day on the Del Mar main track.”
These have been my Top 10 Performances of the Year going back to 2004:
2022 Flightline in the Grade I Pacific Classic
2021 Flightline in the Grade I Malibu Stakes
2020 Swiss Skydiver in the Grade I Preakness Stakes
2019 City of Light in the Grade I Pegasus World Cup
2018 Justify in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2017 Gun Runner in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
2016 Arrogate in the Grade I Travers Stakes
2015 American Pharoah in the Grade I Belmont Stakes
2014 Wise Dan in the Grade II Bernard Baruch Handicap
2013 Dreaming of Julia in the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks
2012 I’ll Have Another in the Grade I Preakness
2011 Animal Kingdom in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2010 Blame in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
2009 Zenyatta in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
2008 Big Brown in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2007 Rags to Riches in the Grade I Belmont Stakes
2006 Barbaro in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2005 Afleet Alex in the Grade I Preakness Stakes
2004 Ghostzapper in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
Look for my list of the Top 10 performances during 2023 by a Thoroughbred in the U.S. to be posted on the Xpressbet.com website during the first week of 2024.
NUMBER 12 ON TOP 100 OF 20TH CENTURY SO FAR
I have Gun Runner ranked at No. 12 on my list of the Top 100 racehorses of the 21st century so far to have won in North America is below (active horses excluded):
1. Flightline
2. American Pharoah*
3. Zenyatta
4. Arrogate
5. Ghostzapper
6. Curlin
7. Rachel Alexandra
8. Justify*
9. Shared Belief
10. California Chrome
11. Tiznow
12. Gun Runner
13. Invasor
14. Wise Dan
15. Goldikova
16. Point Given
17. Beholder
18. Enable
19. Barbaro
20. Smarty Jones
21. Bernardini
22. Azeri
23. Lava Man
24. Bricks and Mortar
25. Rags to Riches
26. Candy Ride
27. Blame
28. Pleasantly Perfect
29. Kona Gold
30. Mineshaft
31. Saint Liam
32. Intercontinental
33. Ouija Board
34. Life Is Good
35. Knicks Go
36. Authentic
37. Tepin
38. Essential Quality
39. Afleet Alex
40. Songbird
41. Monomoy Girl
42. Xtra Heat
43. Game On Dude
44. Mucho Macho Man
45. Empire Maker
46. Congaree
47. Conduit
48. I’ll Have Another
49. Kitten’s Joy
50. Roses in May
51. Blind Luck
52. Havre de Grace
53. Royal Delta
54. Big Brown
55. Lost in the Fog
56. Midnight Bisou
57. Cape Blanco
58. Gio Ponti
59. Lookin At Lucky
60. English Channel
61. Medaglia d’Oro
62. Tiz the Law
63. Midnight Lute
64. Street Sense
65. Discreet Cat
66. Lawyer Ron
67. Nyquist
68. Ashado
69. Monarchos
70. Quality Road
71. Fantastic Light
72. Flintshire
73. High Chaparral
74. Lady Eli
75. Funny Cide
76. Rock Hard Ten
77. Raven’s Pass
78. Maximum Security
79. Frosted
80. Gamine
81. Unique Bella
82. Uncle Mo
83. City of Light
84. Accelerate
85. Mitole
86. Groupie Doll
87. Lemon Drop Kid
88. Runhappy
89. Aptitude
90. Commentator
91. Lido Palace
92. Sightseek
93. Surfside
94. Sistercharlie
95. Fort Larned
96. Street Cry
97. Left Bank
98. Vino Rosso
99. Animal Kingdom
100. Roy H
*Triple Crown winner
OPENING DAY AT SANTA ANITA APPROACHES
Santa Anita Park, the picturesque and historic venue situated at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains, will kick off its Classic Meet on Tuesday, Dec. 26.
Once again, the most lucrative event during the 49-day Classic Meet will be the Grade I, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 6. After the April 7 program, Santa Anita will then take a brief pause in live racing before the 29-day Hollywood Meet commences on April 19 and continues through June 16.
The blockbuster Dec. 26 opening-day card will feature three Grade I races and three Grade II contests. Keeping with tradition, on-track fans opening day will received a free wall calendar while supplies last with paid admission.
The trio of Grade I events on opening day are the Malibu Stakes for 3-year-olds at seven furlongs on the dirt, the La Brea Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at the same trip on the dirt, plus the American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/4 miles on the turf.
The three Grade II races slated for Dec. 26 are the Mathis Mile for 3-year-olds on the grass, the San Antonio Stakes for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, plus the San Gabriel Stakes for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.
Here is a link to the Santa Anita stakes schedule for both the upcoming Classic Meet and the ensuing Hollywood meet.