by 1/ST BET
December 21, 2023
The uniqueness of Japan's Arima Kinen brings together an annual all-star game of sorts, voted on by the fans. Top horses across multiple divisions will meet at Nakayama Racecourse late Saturday evening US time, Christmas Eve locally in Japan. The recent retirement of that nation's regal star Equinox leaves the "Grand Prix" up for grabs over 2500 metres. It will go as Race 11 of 12 on the Nakayama card.
Here's a look at the top contenders:
Justin Palace (pictured above, courtesy JRA) - 4-year-old half-brother to Belmont Stakes and Met Mile winner Palace Malice continues to improve with age. Second last time out to the brilliant Equinox in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn over 2000 metres. While his last two defeats to Equinox were incredibly good efforts, he will face no Equinox in this race. He gets to stretch out to 2500 metres and should find this more to his liking, as shown when winning the Tenno Sho Spring at two miles this past April. Freshened since his last effort and horses coming into the Arima Kinen from the Tenno Sho Autumn strike at a 16% rate, with the last five either winning or finishing second. Top selection.
Tastiera - The 2023 Japanese Derby winner comes into this event off a second-place finish in the G1 Kikuka Sho (final jewel of the Japanese triple crown). Was no match for the winner Durezza that day who certainly will be one to watch in Japan in 2024. Has had two starts over this racetrack with a G2 win at 2000m and a second-place finish to Sol Oriens in the G1 Satsuki Sho. On a current on again, off again streak of races and this race would be the on-again race. Great to see top rider Ryan Moore hop aboard here, but that will drive down his odds. Tractable in races but can't be too far back as Nakayama has a shorter stretch than other tracks in Japan, usually favoring those who are more forwardly placed turning for home. A lot to like here for this son of Satono Crown.
Sol Oriens - Let me know if you have heard this story before. A lightly raced son of Kitasan Black who has made his presence felt in the 3yo classics but is only now starting to get the hang of things when it comes to racing? Yes, we cannot say he's the next Equinox but has had a very similar path to that superhorse. Winner of the G1 Satsuki Sho in only his third career start despite still being very green while running. He lost by a neck to Tastiera in the Derby with a late closing run but was closer than usual. Think his best option here is to drop out near the back and try his luck, seeing if he can close from the clouds to win (as mentioned very tough to do). His workout for this event was particularly good so you know trainer Tezuka will have him with his A game.
Through Seven Seas - Tough knocking but late developing mare by Dream Journey gave Equinox a scare in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen this past June. She only lost by a neck that day and I feel that if she had had a cleaner trip may have beaten the talented colt. Her connections were impressed with that effort and sent her to Paris for the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. She ran a fantastic race in defeat, finishing a closing 4th behind the very talented Ace Impact. She is familiar with Nakayama (three wins from seven starts and always in the top three) and this should be a bit of home field advantage for her on race day. Jockey Ikezoe was aboard her effort for the Takarazuka Kinen and reunites with her on the weekend. Her running style is not the greatest for this event (another late closer) but the talent is certainly there.
Do Deuce - The 2022 Japan Derby winner has had his share of setbacks and issues this year. He started 2023 with an impressive win in the G2 Kyoto Kinen before a trip to Dubai was planned. The interesting point is that they aimed for the Dubai Turf (1800m) vs. the Sheema Classic (2400m) and going up against Equinox. He came up lame before the race and was shipped back to Japan to be pointed towards a fall campaign. His standard rider and legend Yutaka Take was injured the day he was to run vs. Equinox in the Tenno Sho Autumn, so Keita Tosaki picked up the mount. Do Deuce is not a straightforward horse to ride so it was not a great trip. He was very fresh, as it was his first race back off layoff and he tugged and pulled himself till he had little response at the end. Last time out in the Japan Cup he was again more forwardly placed and that took a bit of the starch out of his kick. Yutaka Take is back aboard this son of Heart's Cry and feel that he will make a ton of difference on the weekend. He knows how to ride this horse to get his best effort and remember that he is one of the only horses to ever beat Equinox (winning the 2022 Japan Derby over him). His past efforts will increase his odds but can be right there on his best.