The Lead:
Happy New Year, and let's ring in 2024 with a trip to Gulfstream Park on Saturday for another big stakes card during the Championship Meet. The program includes the Limehouse Stakes, Ginger Brew Stakes and Dania Beach Stakes, the latter a turf mile for newly turned 3-year-olds. That's our focus in Race 11.

The Dania Beach is part of the returning 1/ST Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 wager. Last year's inaugural run of the Gulfstream & Santa Anita dual effort had an average payout of more than $11K for an average pool topping $224K. The wager will be offered each Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday's 1/ST Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 Races:

Leg A-Gulfstream 4:06p (ET) Race 9
Leg B-Gulfstream 4:35p (ET) Race 10
Leg C-Santa Anita 5:00p (ET) Race 5
Leg D-Gulfstream 5:05p (ET) Race 11
Leg E-Santa Anita 6:00p (ET) Race 7

​Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner AGATE ROAD stands out on class and is one of two horses dropping out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, along with listed stakes winner AIR RECRUIT. The field includes three others that are stakes-placed in listed races: TYPHOON FURY, REMINDER and PALM TREE.

Pace:
TOCAYO has shown a penchant for the early lead and will contest that spot with perhaps rail-drawn WINE COLLECTOR, ex-turf sprinter TYPHOON FURY next door in the starting gate, and AIR RECRUIT, who was hard-sent to the front in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf when drawing the rail that day. He should have an early say even with less rider intent. This is not a particularly fast pace projection for a turf mile and capable of being won up front.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-WINE COLLECTOR: Laurel-based runner makes his fourth trip outside Maryland and has plenty of foundation in his sixth straight turf route. Should be asked for some pace from the rail and could remain in the mix late.

2-TYPHOON FURY: Bumpy start to the Central Park at Aqueduct, this effective turf sprinter could revert to his prior early speed with a stretch-out in trip. Jockey Luis Saez will typically ask for some run early and with this draw, TYPHOON FURY should have few excuses if good enough.

3-DEPICTION: Ellis Park maiden winner ventures out of Kentucky for the first time, returning from a modest sixth in a tightly bunched Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. Just three works back on the tab in Florida, his best might be a race away, but working strong on the clock.

4-TOCAYO: Likely pacemaker could not sustain his speed from a wide draw in the Pulpit Stakes last time and benefits from saving more ground Saturday. Son of Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming has deep foundation of 10 starts.

5-REMINDER: Hot pace in the Pulpit Stakes likely helped his late-running cause when a 26-1 runner-up, but he had a very difficult trip and looked fantastic visually skipping over the grass once uncorked. Lot to like for high-percentage jockey-trainer combo of Zayas-D'Angelo.

6-AIR RECRUIT: Laurel Futurity winner ran a dynamite race in the Breeders' Cup when hard-ridden from the start to save his inside position, and then never got a breather during the run with constant outside pressure applied. Still beaten only a few lengths and finished within a half-length of return rival Agate Road in that one. Trainer Arnaud Delacour won this race last year with Candidate and I love his chances to repeat.

7-PALM TREE: Another late-runner from the Pulpit Stakes who benefitted from a fast pace, this one wasn't quite as visually pleasing to me as return rival Reminder was that day. But he's never run a poor race in 4 starts for respected Walsh barn.

8-EDGARTOWN: Third-start maiden breaker at Churchill changes barns from Joe Sharp to Graham Motion. He employs international turf ace pilot Oisin Murphy, who will have his hands full trying to save ground given this horse's running style and post position. He's not quick enough to lead, and not a deep closer.

9-FRONTLINE WARRIOR: Rallied past return rival Edgartown in winning a Keeneland maiden mile, but finished just behind return rival Typhoon Fury most recently in Aqueduct's Central Park. Late runner will need some pace help, but never discount Hall of Famers John Velazquez and Shug McGaughey, the trainer winning this race in 2013 with Mr. Speaker. This is a son of Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Shamrock Rose.

10-AGATE ROAD: Likely solid favorite for top connections of Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher, he's got the form to back it up. The Pilgrim is historically a strong 2YO turf race and he was fabulous winning that with an uncorked move in the stretch. He disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, however, with an absolutely perfect, inside trip. He'll give 3-5 pounds and will drop far back from his widest post position draw. Pletcher won this race 2 years ago with Grand Sonata and was second last year with favored Major Dude.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
AGATE ROAD is top class and will come running for a share at worst.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
REMINDER was 26-1 when runner-up in the Pulpit and could be overlooked again with many bigger-name connections involved in the Dania Beach. He just skips over this course.
​
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$90 win AIR RECRUIT. $10 exacta AIR RECRUIT over REMINDER.