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Dustin Fabian: Fair Grounds Lecomte All-Stakes Late Pick 4 Ticket | Saturday, January 20, 2024

by Dustin Fabian

January 16, 2024

The Road to the Triple Crown heats up in a big way this Saturday at the Fair Grounds with the G3 Lecomte Stakes. The Lecomte is a race that, in recent history, has catapulted the likes of Mandaloun (2021), War of Will (2019), Two Phil’s (2023) and Epicenter (2022) to major Triple Crown success.

This year’s field is pits three-time Lecomte winning trainer Steve Asmussen (2002, 2008, 2021) against Fair Grounds stalwart, Brad Cox, who notched his first career Lecomte last year. Asmussen’s Track Phantom won the Gun Runner S. here on December 23, while Cox’s three-pronged attack is led by Nash (3rd, Gun Runner S.) and recent maiden winner Ethan Energy.

The Lecomte is the final race on a loaded card that features a $250K guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 5 (Races 9 – 13) and an All-Stakes Pick 4 (Races 10 – 13) that is part of a $5,000 Hit & Split promotion at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. Be sure to jump into the Hit & Split – more on that below – and here are my thoughts on the Late Pick 4.

What is a Hit & Split?

A Hit & Split is one of the most popular promotions we have at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET, rewarding savvy customers with cash bonuses for hitting racing’s most popular bets. Xpressbet and 1/ST BET will put a bounty on a particular bet that all customers can take a shot at. To play, simply register (opt in) to the Hit & Split promotion and make a wager on the promo bet (Pick 4, Pick 5, etc.). If your wager is a winning one, you’ll win an equal share of the Hit & Split bounty, along with all other winning bettors on Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. If it’s a $2,000 Hit & Split prize pool and ten customers make a winning bet, each receives $200. Bonus are deposited as wagering credits into winners’ accounts.

Here's my All-Stakes Pick 4 ticket:

Race 10 (5:30PM ET) // $150K Silverbulletday S. (1m70y – Dirt)

I’ll go three-deep in the kickoff leg, utilizing ML favorite, #6 WEST OMAHA (2/1), along with #1 PERFECT SHOT (4/1) and #3 MISS CODE WEST (9/2). I’d love to have more confidence in WEST OMAHA, but I was not impressed with her last race in the Untapable Stakes here at Fair Grounds on December 23. She looks to have the talent and comes from the right barn (Brad Cox), but she’s not a standout. MISS CODE WEST will be interesting. The Oklahoma-bred daughter of Code West is a perfect 4-for-4 in her career, all races at Remington Park, and will be tested here.

Race 11 (6:00PM ET) // $100K Colonel E.R. Bradley S. (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

This is probably the toughest race in the sequence and is a bit of a gut punch to handicap, given the very recent loss of Two Emmys. I have been nothing but impressed by #9 BEATBOX (5/2) lately, but he hasn’t quite figured out how to win races yet. He has run 3rd, 2nd and 2nd in his last three on the lawn, so he’ll be there at the finish. But will he be there first? Let’s put the Louisiana-bred, #6 WHO TOOK THE MONEY (8/1), on the ticket. He always fires over this course and this is an appropriate time to take a shot here. #1 PROTONIC POWER (8/1) and #2 STRONG QUALITY (3/1) drew great and are also on my ticket.

Race 12 (6:30PM ET) // G3 $175K Louisiana S. (1 1/16 Miles – Dirt)

The horse to watch here appears to be #3 SAUDI CROWN (8/5), prepping in Louisiana for a trip to Saudi Arabia for the big $20M Saudi Cup next month. The Brad Cox-trainee won the G1 PA Derby last year and was beaten a nose in both the G2 Jim Dandy and G3 Dwyer. He’s as fast as it gets, but did rate when breaking his maiden at Keeneland last April. He may need that quality, as #5 FIVE STAR GENERAL (6/1) and #7 KUPUNA (15/1) are major pace players. If one, or both, defect, SAUDI CROWN gets tougher. #1 RED ROUTE ONE (5/1) appeared a cut below as a 3YO last year, but one thing to take note – he went 2-for-2 last season with Lasix and gets that medication on Saturday. Could that move him up?

Race 13 (7:00PM ET) // G3 Lecomte S. (1 1/16 Miles – Dirt)

#7 TRACK PHANTOM (9/5) * pictured above * was exceptional last time out in the Gun Runner Stakes at this same distance, tracking the early pace before drawing off and holding sway. There’s a good chance he gets a carbon copy trip on Saturday. I expect #2 NASH (5/2), the beaten Gun Runner heavy favorite, to be more forwardly-placed early, with TRACK PHANTOM just off his flank. In the Gun Runner, NASH was midpack under Florent Geroux and just never really kicked in. If he can run back to his maiden win, a 10 1/4-length tour de force, he’s going to be very hard to beat, but I want to see him flex his muscle against a quality field when he doesn’t just outclass everyone.

My Ticket

Race 10: 1, 3, 6
Race 11: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9
Race 12: 1, 3
Race 13: 7

Ticket Cost: $18 for 50-cents

Good Luck!