The Lead:
The road to the Louisiana Derby picks up steam Saturday at Fair Grounds when the Lecomte Stakes is one of six stakes offered on the card. The final five races will comprise an all-stakes pick 5, anchored by the Lecomte in Race 13 and immediately preceded by the Louisiana Stakes. That clash of older horses will be our focus.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner SAUDI CROWN is joined by Grade 2 winners SMILE HAPPY and CONFIDENCE GAME. Meanwhile, HAPPY AMERICAN and RED ROUTE ONE are both Grade 3 winners with higher-level placings. These horses are pretty well matched on class when you consider SAUDI CROWN faced mostly 3-year-olds last year.

Pace:
Speedster FIVE STAR GENERAL and stretch-out sprinter KUPUNA will provide early pace threats to favorite SAUDI CROWN. The pace should be solid and give a finisher a legitimate chance if good enough.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-RED ROUTE ONE: Deep closer takes on elder horses for the first time after nearly banging out $1 million last year as a sophomore. The West Virginia Derby winner goes for a Steve Asmussen stable that won this race in 2003, '08, '10 and '12. This will be his first FG start, but the long stretch and history of Gun Runner offspring success there helps the cause.

2-SMILE HAPPY: Talented middle-distance runner has had trouble keeping healthy, but his best is pretty elite, witnessed by his defeat of Pegasus World Cup winner Art Collector in last year's Alysheba at Churchill. Good second here in the 2022 Risen Star to eventual Kentucky Derby-Preakness runner-up Epicenter, so he should handle the return visit. Reunites with Brian Hernandez Jr. and they're 2-for-2 in tandem. Smile Happy has run well off extended layoffs in previous seasons and likely will again.

3-SAUDI CROWN (pictured above): Probable favorite was dueled into submission in the Breeders' Cup Classic last time, but this is a much easier assignment in terms of competition and distance (three-sixteenths of a mile shorter). But he'll carry 124 pounds ... giving away 2-6 to the field ... and take pace pressure from a couple of outer-drawn runners. Brad Cox and Florent Geroux have teamed to win this race 3 of the last 4 years. This is his prep for the $20 million Saudi Cup on February 24, so will they bottom him out in this $175,000 race? That's the handicapping question.

4-HAPPY AMERICAN: Defending Louisiana Stakes winner faces an infinitely tougher group this year than last. But he got zero pace help in that '23 victory and should have a much faster tempo to rally into on Saturday. No horse has won this race back-to-back since List in 1972-'73.

5-FIVE STAR GENERAL: Eight-year-old miler will try to stretch his early speed just as he did last time out when winning the Tenacious Stakes over this same track and trip. Longacres Mile and Evangline Mile winner does nearly all his best work on the front end and almost has to figure in the race shape vs. Saudi Crown.

6-CONFIDENCE GAME: Wet track upsetter at 18-1 of last year's Rebel at Oaklawn, he's been a one-hit wonder when it comes to stakes. Disappointing fifth as the favorite in the Tenacious last time when making no dent vs. return rival Five Star General. Bullet workout January 13 for this was much quicker than his drills going into the last start, so perhaps he's waking up. Demand a price to find out.

7-KUPUNA: Cross-entered in Oaklawn's Fifth Season Stakes on Saturday, but given the cancellation of racing in Arkansas, he figures to stay home at his FG base and go to work. Five straight starts at 7 furlongs or 1 mile, he's got sprinter's speed and likely to use it from the outside post. He's run well over the track, but this looks like a tough matchup in terms of pace and class.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SMILE HAPPY loves the distance and is a very consistent performer to land in the superfecta, doing so 7 of 9 times.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HAPPY AMERICAN has a history in this race and will be much bigger on tote this year than when winning at 4-1 last year.
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Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 exacta SMILE HAPPY over SAUDI CROWN. $20 exacta SAUDI CROWN over SMILE HAPPY.