I tried to beat the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and it darn near worked. My top pick was not Fierceness, who finished 15th as the 3-1 favorite. My top choice was Forever Young, who finished third at odds of 7-1 while losing by only two noses.

And now I’m going to try and beat the chalk again this Saturday (May 18) in the 149th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.

The Preakness favorite was expected to be Muth. Brian Nadeau installed the Arkansas Derby winner as the 8-5 favorite on the original Preakness morning line issued Monday, while the 5-2 second choice was Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.

But there was breaking news Wednesday morning when it was announced that Muth will be scratched from the Preakness after spiking a 103-degree temperature. That means Mystik Dan now almost certainly will assume the role of Preakness favorite.

By the way, this year’s Preakness is the first leg in 1/ST Racing’s new series in which a $5 million bonus is being offered to the owner(s) of a horse who sweeps the $2 million Preakness, the $1 million California Crown at Santa Anita on Sept. 28 and the $3 million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park next January.

The Preakness is, of course, one of the three events that comprise this country’s coveted Triple Crown, which has been swept a total of 13 times (Sir Barton in 1919, Gallant Fox in 1930, Omaha in 1935, War Admiral in 1937, Whirlaway in 1941, Count Fleet in 1943, Assault in 1946, Citation in 1948, Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977, Affirmed in 1978, American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018).

After the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby and 1 3/16-mile Preakness, this year’s Triple Crown concludes on June 8 with the Belmont Stakes. The 2024 Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga instead of Belmont Park and contested at a shortened trip of 1 1/4 miles rather than its typical 1 1/2 miles. Belmont Park is under construction. Officials decided that it would be preferable for a Belmont Stakes held at Saratoga to be contested at 1 1/4 miles rather than keep it at 1 1/2 miles. A 1 1/2-mile race run on Saratoga’s main track has to start on a turn.

“There is already discussion that this is not a legitimate Triple Crown” because of the Belmont Stakes being shorter than 1 1/2 miles, John Cherwa wrote this week in the Los Angeles Times.

As you may recall, the 2020 Triple Crown had a format that was radically changed from tradition due to the pandemic. The Belmont Stakes kicked off the series that year when it was run at 1 1/8 miles on June 20. It was followed by the Kentucky Derby at 1 1/4 miles on Sept. 5, then the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles on Oct. 3.

In 2020, Tiz the Law won the Belmont for trainer Barclay Tagg. Authentic took the Kentucky Derby for Hall of Fame horseman Bob Baffert. And then a filly, Swiss Skydiver, succeeded in the Preakness for trainer Kenny McPeek.

McPeek is trying to win the Preakness this Saturday with Kentucky Derby victor Mystik Dan.

With Muth now out of the race, Imagination will be Baffert’s sole representative in this year’s Preakness.

Even before the announcement that Muth won’t be running in the Preakness, my top pick wasn’t him. My top choice isn’t going to be Mystik Dan, either. I am going with Imagination.

From the rail out, the nine horses who were entered in the Preakness are Mugatu, Uncle Heavy, Catching Freedom, Muth (to be scratched), Mystik Dan, Seize the Grey, Just Steel, Tuscan Gold and Imagination.

Below are my selections for the Preakness Stakes:

1. Imagination
2. Mystik Dan
3. Catching Freedom
4. Tuscan Gold

I have a slew of reasons for making Imagination my top pick in the Preakness.

REASON 1: I not only believe that Imagination has a good chance to win, he will be a much better price than Mystik Dan.

REASON 2: As I mentioned earlier, even with Muth in the race, my top pick was going to be Imagination. But do I like Imagination even more with Muth out? Yes, I do.

REASON 3: Imagination’s trainer has won the Preakness a record eight times. Baffert’s winners have been Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, Point Given in 2001, War Emblem in 2002, Lookin At Lucky in 2010, American Pharoah in 2015, Justify in 2018 and National Treasure in 2023.

REASON 4: While Mystik Dan did win the Kentucky Derby, was he the best horse in the race? I’m not so sure.

Look, I think Mystik Dan deserves a lot of credit for his Derby victory. He won it fair and square. But I also think Mystik Dan benefited from a ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. that was nothing less than a rail-hugging masterpiece. And Mystik Dan deserves credit for being brave enough to unhesitatingly charge through a small hole turning for home, a hole that was so tight that Hernandez’s left boot actually smacked the rail.

Nevertheless, all in all, I came away from this year’s Kentucky Derby with the opinion that Mystik Dan quite possibly was no better than the third-best horse in the race. And Thoro-Graph does support this view of mine. I will have more to say about the Thoro-Graph numbers for the Kentucky Derby later in this blog.

REASON 5: Imagination goes into the Preakness having been a model of consistency so far. He hasn’t finished worse than second in six career starts.

REASON 6: It’s not hard for me to picture jockey Frankie Dettori winning his first Triple Crown race this Saturday with Imagination. I can just see the 53-year-old legend doing his famous flying dismount from Imagination after they collaborate for a Preakness triumph.

Dettori has been riding in superb form this year, as evidenced by his six victories on the April 6 card at Santa Anita. Dettori came quite close to making it seven wins that afternoon, but Imagination lost the Santa Anita Derby by a half-length to Stronghold.

REASON 7: When I spoke with Baffert after Imagination won Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes by a head on March 3 despite getting bumped hard going into the clubhouse turn, it reminded me a lot of what Baffert had once told me about National Treasure when he was a 2-year-old in 2022.

Baffert said that while he considered National Treasure to be a good 2-year-old, “I think he will be even better on down the line.”

Well, it turned out that Baffert was right, as he usually is when it comes to his thoughts regarding a racehorse. On down the line as a 3-year-old, National Treasure won the Preakness. Later in 2023, he narrowly lost the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile to the older Cody’s Wish, who would be voted Horse of the Year. Earlier this year, National Treasure won the Pegasus World Cup.

Following this year’s San Felipe, Baffert told me that he thought Imagination was improving and that his best races might still be ahead for him.

After the San Felipe, Imagination was bet down to even-money favoritism in the Santa Anita Derby. I picked him to win. I expected him to win. Imagination did give a good account of himself, but he lost by a neck when having to settle for second to Stronghold.

At first I was down on Imagination for getting beat in the Santa Anita Derby. But after Stronghold subsequently didn’t disgrace himself by finishing seventh of 20 in the Kentucky Derby, I now think that perhaps I judged Imagination a bit too harshly for not winning the Santa Anita Derby.

BloodHorse’s Bob Ehalt wrote this week that Imagination, a $1.05 million yearling purchase, is owned by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan and Tom Ryan. It’s “the same core group” of owners for National Treasure, Ehalt noted.

“This has been a target for us,” Ryan said of the Preakness to Ehalt. “When he ran in the Santa Anita Derby, we felt we learned a lot about him, just like we did last year when National Treasure was fourth in that race. We knew he ran well and since then the horse has really developed physically, mentally and athletically. He’s gotten fitter and tighter. He’s been immature at times, but he continues to impress.”

REASON 8: Imagination’s team drill with Muth at Santa Anita last Friday (May 10) might be an indication that Imagination is indeed improving and that he’s poised to run a biggie in the Preakness.

Muth and Imagination were both timed in a bullet 1:11.80 for six furlongs. Imagination appeared to be no more than only a head in front, at the most, when they crossed the finish line. But a comment Baffert made to Daily Racing Form’s David Grening with regard to that workout by Imagination caught my eye.

“Today was probably his best work since I’ve had him,” Baffert said.

On the radio program Thoroughbred Los Angeles last Sunday, private clocker Andy Harrington similarly said that he liked what he saw from Imagination in the workout with Muth two days earlier.

“You know, it’s always hard to read Muth,” Harrington said to Mike Willman. “He doesn’t really put out 110% in the morning. He does exactly what he needs to do. Imagination, I thought was slightly better than him [in this workout]. So that might be an indication that Imagination is getting better and maybe he can [finish] in front of Muth in the afternoon. They’ve never raced each other [in a race] so it will be interesting to see what happens in the afternoon. I do think Imagination is doing awfully well. There’s not much difference between the two horses, to be honest with you.”

REASON 9: Imagination’s Beyer Speed Figures are an indication to me that he is capable of winning the Preakness, especially if Baffert is right and we have not seen his best yet.

Imagination’s Beyer Speed Figures were on an upward trajectory of 70, 78, 78, 92 and 96 until he posted an 89 in the Santa Anita Derby. But that 96 Beyer gives him a license to have a big say in the Preakness.

It’s not as if Imagination’s 96 Beyer is a far cry from Mystik Dan’s two best figures, which are 101 and 100.

The top Beyer of a 96 for Imagination is just slightly lower than Catching Freedom’s best figure of a 97. Catching Freedom recorded a 97 Beyer in his Louisiana Derby victory, then duplicated that figure when fourth to Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the Kentucky Derby.

Imagination’s 96 Beyer Speed Figure is better than the top figure achieved so far by Preakness opponents Just Steel (95), Tuscan Gold (95), Seize the Grey (88), Mugatu (87) and Uncle Heavy (84).

REASON 10: Imagination’s tactical speed could be a major asset this Saturday in a race that isn’t expected to have a fast pace. Breaking from the outside post, Imagination can race on or just off the early lead without it taking a toll on him.

REASON 11: In terms of his breeding, the distance of the Preakness might be a good fit for Imagination.

Imagination is a Kentucky-bred son of super sire Into Mischief and the Empire Maker mare Magical Feeling.

Into Mischief has yet to sire a Preakness winner, but he has had two winners of the Kentucky Derby in Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021 through the disqualification of Medina Spirit). Laurel River, this year’s sensational 8 1/2-length winner of the $12 million Dubai World Cup, also is by Into Mischief.

A noteworthy stamina influence in Imagination’s pedigree is Empire Maker, who managed to win the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes.

A WET TRACK LIKELY WOULD HELP MYSTIK DAN

With the sort of weather that makes umbrellas important appearing to be a possibility, a wet surface just might be in the cards for this year’s Preakness.

Imagination has never raced on a wet track. But his maternal grandsire, Empire Maker, did win the Belmont Stakes on a track labeled as sloppy.

A wet track in the Preakness probably would be a huge plus for Mystik Dan. That’s because the Kentucky-bred Goldencents colt ran so well on a muddy Oaklawn oval when he won the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes by a widening eight lengths, a performance that produced a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.

Mystik Dan recorded a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his Kentucky Derby triumph.

Considering the only two triple-digit Beyers in the Preakness field belong to Mystik Dan, he obviously merits the utmost respect.

TWO OTHER WIN CANDIDATES

While Mystik Dan looms the one to beat and my top pick is Imagination, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Catching Freedom or Tuscan Gold posing for pictures following this year’s Preakness.

Catching Freedom rallied from last in a field of 11 to win the Louisiana Derby at the same 1 3/16-mile distance as the Preakness. Fifteenth early in the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky-bred Constitution colt came on to finish fourth when losing by just 1 3/4 lengths in a respectable effort for trainer Brad Cox.

Tuscan Gold could be dangerous Saturday. Trained by Chad Brown, the Kentucky-bred Medaglia d’Oro colt ran fourth when unveiled at Aqueduct last Nov. 4. That one-mile contest was won by Sierra Leone, who earlier this month came within a scant nose of winning the Kentucky Derby.

In Tuscan Gold’s 2024 debut, he won a 1 1/16-mile affair for maidens with authority by 6 1/4 lengths on Jan. 31. He then ran well in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby to lose by just 1 3/4 lengths when third to Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.

Tuscan Gold’s trainer has two Preakness victories to his credit. Brown won this race in 2017 with Cloud Computing and in 2022 with Early Voting.

Tuscan Gold is a grandson of Curlin, who won the 2007 Preakness.

I must say that it seems so many people are climbing aboard the Tuscan Gold bandwagon that I’m looking at him as being “a wise-guy horse,” i.e., a horse whose odds are much shorter than they truly ought to be. And more often than not, a “wise-guy horse” doesn’t win.

LUKAS SENDS OUT A PAIR

I might regret not taking Just Steel and Seize the Grey more seriously this Saturday, especially Just Steel. Disregarding any horse sent out by their Hall of Fame trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, can be a risky proposition.

Lukas has won the Preakness six times: Codex in 1980, Tank’s Prospect in 1985, Tabasco Cat in 1994, Timber Country in 1995, Charismatic in 1999 and Oxbow in 2013.

Don’t forget that when Just Steel ran second to Muth in the Arkansas Derby, Mystik Dan finished third. In fairness to Mystik Dan, though, I think a line can be drawn through that race for him because he got bumped and impeded by a rank Liberal Arts going into the backstretch. But Just Steel did finish 4 1/4 lengths clear of Mystik Dan on that occasion.

Just Steel finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby, but enough went wrong for him that I think you probably can throw that race out.

In his excellent review of the Kentucky Derby in Countdown to the Crown, Jeremy Plonk wrote of Just Steel that he was “roughed around at the start and again in the first 100 yards, but he hustled up into the lead pack in the two-path into the clubhouse turn. Pressed the pace of Track Phantom throughout the backstretch run while between horses with Fierceness to his outside, never getting a breather. The first of the pace players to fold with five-sixteenths still to run, he steadily retreated without any resistance. We compared him to Oxbow earlier this season in development and that one rebounded off a Derby defeat in 2013 to surprise the Preakness.”

After Just Steel paid the price for being involved in an opening half-mile run in a crisp :46.63 in the Kentucky Derby, the game plan is to have him to sit off the early pace in the Preakness, according to Lukas.

“He got caught up in a speed duel [in the Kentucky Derby], and we’ll try to change that. That’s not his style,” Lukas was quoted as saying to Ehalt in Tuesday’s edition of BloodHorse Daily.

When Seize the Grey won the Pat Day Mile by 1 1/4 lengths on the Kentucky Derby undercard, he attended a scorching first half-mile run in :44.59.

“He really ran a positive race” in the Pat Day Mile, said Lukas. “…I don’t know if he’s good enough to win [the Preakness],” the trainer added, “but he’s on top of his game.”

Just Steel’s sire, Justify, won the 2018 Preakness while in the midst of a Triple Crown sweep. Justify will be inducted into the national Hall of Fame in August.

Seize the Grey is by Arrogate, who was the Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old male of 2016. Arrogate was inducted into the national Hall of Fame last year.

FOREVER YOUNG GOT BEST THORO-GRAPH DERBY FIG

As I mentioned earlier, Forever Young was my top pick in the Kentucky Derby, a race in which he finished third and lost by two noses.

If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard someone say that they believe Forever Young was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, I’d have a whole lot of dollars.

Forever Young did come away from the Kentucky Derby with the best Thoro-Graph number despite a bungled start, racing about seven wide into the lane and then being “bumped, shoved and basically mauled” by Sierra Leone during the stretch run, as Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin put it.

As I’ve written many times, while I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

In the case of Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.

The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.

Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph number for the Kentucky Derby was a 1, which was the best figure by any of the 20 starters. It matched the Thoro-Graph number he received for his wins earlier this year in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby.

Sierra Leone’s Thoro-Graph number for the Kentucky Derby was a 1 1/4. That duplicated the number he received for his victory in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Mystik Dan? While his name will now forever be inscribed on the honor roll of Kentucky Derby winners, his Thoro-Graph number for the race was a 3, not nearly as good as the numbers for Forever Young and Sierra Leone.

In fact, Mystic Dan’s Thoro-Graph number of 3 for the Kentucky Derby was not as good as Thorpedo Anna’s 1 1/4 for her win in the Kentucky Oaks, nor the Thoro-Graph number of 2 for Oaks runner-up Just F Y I.

Mystic Dan’s best Thoro-Graph number to date was a 1/4 for his win in the Southwest. He followed that with a 3 1/2 in his troubled Arkansas Derby prior to his 3 in the Kentucky Derby.

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 276 Senor Buscador (17)
2. 245 Idiomatic (8)
3. 195 National Treasure (4)
4. 158 First Mission
5. 152 Master of The Seas (1)
6. 102 White Abarrio
7. 80 Adare Manor
8. 50 Skippylongstocking
9. 47 Saudi Crown
9. 47 Skelly

Though he did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron received one first-place vote.

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 295 Mystik Dan (21)
2. 279 Sierra Leone (5)
3. 235 Muth (3)
4. 195 Forever Young (1)
5. 176 Catching Freedom
6. 110 Thorpedo Anna (1)
7. 76 Nysos
8. 70 Fierceness
9. 57 Resilience
10. 55 Stronghold