Memorial Day Monday’s closing day card for the Preakness Meet at Pimlico features a pick 6 carryover of $384,474. A mandatory payout will be in store for the 20-cent base wager, which spans Races 4-9. Thunderstorms are forecasted for the Baltimore area during the morning hours, so handicappers must be flexible when looking at track conditions and whether the grass races stay on their original surface.

First post is 12:25 pm ET. The pick 6 is scheduled to get underway at 1:58 pm ET. Here’s the early bird look at the sequence.

Race 4: maiden special weight

Nine 2-year-old dashers go 4-1/2 furlongs on dirt. Only 6-Rapido Rosa and 9-Liam’s the Great have started and both were solid in their debuts. Betmix stats show offspring of sire Liam’s Map to be a ridiculous 14: 7-1-3 at Pimlico on dirt in recent years. That may propel Liam’s the Great to the necessary move forward off his fourth-place unveiling at Laurel for veteran trainer Jerry Robb, highly capable with juveniles. Sharp debut barn John Salzman Jr. would be no surprise to have 7-Up in Flames ready to rock out of the box. Can’t sleep on Brittany Russell’s 5-Buoyant either in a race with interesting options and depth. Price player 2-Bazak is by Brody’s Cause, whose offspring have run very well in limited tries at Pimlico.

Pick 6 strategy: Seeing pre-race visual clues and tote action could be beneficial in whittling this race down some before the sequence begins. Top preference for me goes to 9-Liam’s the Great.

Race 5: claiming

Scheduled turf mile has 11 entered for grass with 4-Rally Board and 7-Margie’s Fun Son the main-track only hopefuls. 2-Emirates Road has the best win on paper in this non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer, winning a maiden special on dirt at Keeneland (on a wet main track, no less). Trainers Keiron Magee (10-Minxzluckystarfyre) and Jorge Duarte (11-Balme D Rule Maker) have had phenomenal Pimlico meets and both of these look effective if the race comes off grass, too. Class-dropper 13-Masterofhiscraft has a tough post to overcome, but capable if he can work out a trip.

Pick 6 strategy: Have to see what changes we get here in terms of surface and scratches. Any combination of 2,10,11 and the main-track only horses make sense.

Race 6: maiden claiming

Dozen bottom-level MCL runners spring 6 furlongs and this race has some interesting angles among horses with otherwise uninteresting past performances. 1-Battle Tested is a son of Connect, whose offspring are a strong 10: 3-0-1 at Pimlico in recent years and makes a class drop for the second start. Third-timer 5-Paperback Edition showed a middle move in prior outings with apprentice riders aboard, but now moves to meet leader Jorge Ruiz in what looks like “go time” for Mary Eppler.

Pick 6 strategy: I’ll lean to the lightly raced pair mentioned above (1,5) and avoid some of these more career maidens who have strung together 8-12 losses.

Race 7: starter/optional claiming

Another 12-horse affair in the entries and there are no MTOs in this turf sprint. 9-Lucci makes his second start off the layoff, just missed in a similar spot here last May at the tail of the Preakness meet and has maintained consistent turf sprint form. Standout play if the race stays on turf, and willing to take the stand here even if they decide to remain in the field in the event of a surface change.

Pick 6 strategy: If this one scratches, things spread out a great deal and have to evaluate who’s left.

Race 8: allowance/optional claiming

High-percentage trainer Jamie Ness has a capable coupled entry in 1-Boss Logic and 1A-Magic Michael, but never overlook an offspring of Curlin at Pimlico. They’re an auto-play for me, which brings 3-Alejandro and 5-Curlin’s Malibu definitely into the mix. Boss Logic may be strongest amongst these because of his early pace ability the others lack and his fantastic marks on a wet track that looks likely.

Pick 6 strategy: With 10-1 and 20-1 morning line prices on the Curlin pair, we’ve got some intrigue here while accepting the 1-1A entry as formidable. Let's roll with 1,3,5.

Race 9: maiden claiming

Turf mile has 11 entered with no main-track only options. 4-Ascribe comes fresh off the Kentucky claim by Jamie Ness and ought to fit strongly in this spot. Son of Arrogate has run only on synthetic and turf to date, but no reason to think he won’t handle dirt. The sire just had a local winner you might have heard of, Preakness winner Seize the Grey.

Pick 6 strategy: The desire to be alive in the last leg will cause a lot of folks to use their budget earlier and be left with few combos in the cashout leg. That’s a failed strategy, but emotionally accurate to a fundamental mistake. That means 4-Ascribe likely will be overbet in the sequence as the favorite. Others could provide highly inflated value even if the second or third choice in the win pool. 9-States United and 11-No Surrender appear viable contenders via Aqueduct for barns that can’t be tossed with any confidence. Include and you may be rewarded more handsomely than it appears on paper.