by Jeff Siegel
June 15, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays VideoRACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Moon Ice; 2-Eddie’s Last
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Eddie’s Last and Moon Ice finished a nose a part when second and third respectively in a similar state-bred first level allowance affair down the Hillside Course last month and they meet again today in a six furlong dash over the flat course. We’ll give ‘Ice a slight edge on top for having a bit more tactical speed and perhaps more room to improve in what will be his third start in his current form cycle and with rising numbers that produced a career top Beyer fig last time out. In a race that projects to have modest early splits, the R. Baltas-trained gelding should be set for another forward move while on or near the lead throughout. His main rival will be doing his best work late and will be hoping for some help up front.
RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Hardmoneymuchachos; 3-Big Drinker
Backups/savers: 5-Syntactic.
Forecast: Hardmoneymuchachos returns for the same price ($16,000) that he was claimed for by P. Miller three weeks ago and today makes a major jockey switch to J. Hernandez in this main track miler for non-winners of two older horses. In a five runner field lacking in early speed, the son of California Chrome can control proceedings from start to finish over a dirt surface that he’s finished no worse than second in three prior starts. Big Drinker is a tad faster on speed figures; however his recent maiden claiming score was accomplished in a below average, non-productive affair.
RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Ms McWhinney; 5-Certitude (FR)
Backups/savers: 3-Ang N Ash.
Forecast: Ms McWhinney is fresh from a maiden special weight score over this course and distance with a career top number 19 days ago and the projected race shape of this starter optional claimer should complement her late running style, making a repeat victory entirely possible. The daughter of American Pharoah paid quick dividends after being claimed for $50,000 two runs back by D. O’Neill and can get close to covering the purchase price in just her second start for her new connections. Certitude (FR) has yet to make a backward move on numbers in five starts and could easily step forward again, though she remains winless in four career starts on grass and may prefer one corner. However, the switch to J. Hernandez is significant, making her a “must use” in rolling exotic play.,
RACE 4: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Miss McKinzie; 5-Going Deep; 1-Tropical Rain Day.
Backups/Savers: 10-Thirsty Mama.
Forecast: In a wide open maiden juvenile state-bred dash for fillies, we’re largely guessing, so a spread strategy in rolling exotic play is the proper way to attack this race. Miss McKinzie has done most of her preparation at San Luis Rey Downs and has recorded some solid workout times, so with J. Hernandez taking the call for P. Miller she has the look of a live item. A recent bullet half mile drill (:47 3/5h, fastest of 32) certainly catches the eye. Going Deep has displayed enough speed in the a.m. for the L. Mendez outfit to warrant a look despite her modest purchase price ($10,000) while Tropical Rain Done didn’t get the best of runs in her debut when finishing fourth of seven and today lands the rail and adds blinkers, so a forward move seems likely.
RACE 5: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 3-Linda’s Gift
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Though she was in too tough when fifth in the Gamely S.-G1 last month, Linda’s Gift still earned a strong speed figure and ran her race, so we’re expecting her to regain her winning form in this much easier Grade-3 renewal of the Sana Ana S. over a mile and one-quarter, the distance of her impressive tally two races back. The pace projects to be slow, which is fine for the daughter of Arrogate, who has proven to be almost impossible to beat when handed a soft, front running trip. She’s listed at 6/5 on the morning line but could easily leave at odds-on.
RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Young Love; 5-Coralgableskaylin
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Young Love is another first timer vanning up from San Luis Rey Downs for trainer P. Miler and this one looks well-meant just like Miss McKinzie two races earlier. The daughter of Grazen shows two quick gate drills this month that should have her fit and ready, and with a clean break from the rail she could be long gone under top rider J. Hernandez. Coralgableskaylin has displayed some ability in the morning for trainer D. O’Neill, who has enjoyed considerable success with his babies this meeting. With hustling speed rider E. Maldonado taking the call, it would be surprising if she’s no in the fray throughout.
RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Tiny Dancer
Backups/savers: 12-Runamileinmyshoes.
Forecast: Tiny Dancer stayed on nicely and galloped out well in a promising sprint debut over the local lawn in early April. She finished a respectable when fourth, beaten less than two lengths and seems sure to improve with that race behind her and this stretch out in trip. The daughter of Sir Prancealot could easily be the controlling speed in this mile affair for older maiden fillies and mares if rating tactics are employed by Runamileinmyshoes. who is stuck way out in the 12 hole. ‘Dancer is listed at 4-1 on the morning line and will offer an excellent gamble at or near that price in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Indispendable; 1-Pony Express; 3-Factory Drive
Backups/savers: 7-Feel the Magic; 6-Canada Gate.
Forecast: This race has several pace pressers/forcers in the field, so the early fractions should be hot and contested. Abnormal fast early splits often produce a chaotic result, so we suggest you spread the race as deeply as you can afford to. Indispensable has the proper late running style for the race shape but already has had seven chances and is getting into the habit of not delivering when afforded the opportunity. In the frame in four of his last five, the son of Constitution draws a much better post today, so there should be no excuses. Trainer J. Sadler’s other entrant, Pony Express, lands the rail, continues to impress in the morning, and has plenty of room to improve. He’s 12-1 on the morning line and has something of a long shot chance if he improves as much as we suspect he might. Factory Drive closed a huge gap in his sprint debut and galloped out far in front of race winner and potential superstar Parental into the clubhouse turn in a promising first impression despite finishing sixth, beaten nine lengths in a race that was far too short for him. He was gelded since that outing, so it’ll be interesting to see how much he improves at this two-turn trip.
RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: 1-Divin Propose (FR).
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Divin Propos ran very well last year in the competitive French Provinces and arrives with all of his conditions available. He’s looked terrific in a series of workouts that should have him ready to win in his U.S. debut and the P. D’Amato-trained gelding, a first time Lasix user, is a proven stayer and never off the board in five starts at this 10 furlong distance. Additionally, the son of George Vancouver employs a front-running style that can take full advantage of his dogleg draw, so at 9/5 on the morning line he simply should outclass this first level allowance field as a logical rolling exotic single.
RACE 10: Post: 5:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: One Magic Philly; 11-Hope Road.
Backups/savers: 3-Philippa.
Forecast: This is a monster of a race for older maiden fillies and mare and may have a future stakes winner of two in the field. One Magic Philly has done everything asked of her in the a.m. for trainer P. D’Amato and looks plenty fit for a major effort first crack out of the box. The daughter of Good Magic has displayed plenty of speed but also the ability to re-break and finish, so if she can secure a good early position and then avoid trouble she could easily win a first asking while offering good value at or near her morning line price of 4-1. Hope Road displayed ability last summer as a two-year-old when trained by J. Sadler. Now, she’s in the B. Baffert stable and her workout times indicate she might be a much better type this time around. She lands the stable’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez, is comfortably drawn outside, and projects to inherit a good second flight position and have every chance from there.
RACE 11: Post: 6:10 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: Storm Off; 9-Bartholdy; 2-Quality Wins.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Storm Off is yet another first timer shipping in from San Luis Rey Downs for trainer P. Miller) with credentials to win, the third such on today’s card. In a moderate maiden $50,000 seller sprinting on turf, the son of Get Stormy looks quite intriguing at 8-1 on the morning line under J. Hernandez. The works look quite good, so we suspect this sophomore gelding will receive plenty of play. It’s mostly an education guess, but the signs are there. Bartholdy shows up in a seller for the first time and the drop in class should help, but he’s quite modest in the speed figure department, yet he’s a contender by default. Quality Wins has done nothing but burn money in his last three starts and isn’t one to trust, though on pure form he’s a threat and may be worth tossing in somewhere.