Log In

Jeremy Plonk: Delaware Oaks Day Analysis | Monday, July 8, 2024

by Jeremy Plonk

July 8, 2024

A special makeup card Monday for Delaware Oaks Day will be held at Delaware Park due to Saturday’s postponement for excessive heat. The 10-race card gets underway at 12:30 pm ET and features 4 consecutive stakes races. Let’s take at the keys to the back half of the program.

Race 6: $150,000 Christiana Stakes

Best betting race on the second half of the card has 10 entrants and 8 legitimate win considerations to this eye, tossing only 1 and 8 with confidence. 9-Mont Saint Michel offers value at 8-1 morning line off a Woodbine maiden breaker and steps up into this turf route stakes. 5-Whiskey Decision has been dazzling in her last 2 for sharp turf trainer Arnaud Delacour. There’s not a ton of early speed here, a fast course due to the heat and a chance for speedy 7-A Primera Vista to wire for a fourth straight win. Get some depth, but slight value lean to 9 at 8-1 or more.

Race 7: $125,000 Alapocas Run Stakes

5-Super Chow is such a trusted speedster that he’s hard to overlook in this 6-furlong dash that doesn’t project to have a lot of other speed. If he were to get hooked or misfire, 1-Prince of Jericho makes sense as the late finisher, but needs to make up more than 3 lengths form their Preakness Day showdown at Pimlico. The fly in the pace ointment may be 7-Dean Delivers, who occasionally comes out cooking and other times doesn’t. But his last at Monmouth was rapid, so he may be breathing fire today. Give me 6-1 on 1-Prince of Jericho for win purposes, but consider any of this trio in multi-race bets.

Race 8: $150,000 Kent Stakes

At 1-3/8 miles on turf, you’re certainly in Mike Maker and Christophe Clement territory in terms of turf marathoners. 11-El Matador was a $100,000 claim for Maker at Churchill in May and the prototype of long-distance stakes horse he acquires and excels with, so beware. 9-Spirit Prince likely goes favored for Clement and Jose Ortiz, but this one has been far more apt to get minor shares than wins, so be leery of taking too short of a price. 3-Domingo is in the same boat in terms of minor awards more often than not, but the Brendan Walsh trainee is beautifully drawn, should save every inch and is bred to love the longer trip. This feels like a very good fit at 12-1 morning line and my slight lean.

Race 9: Grade 3 $300,000 Delaware Oaks

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. already has won 12 races in July through just 7 days on the calendar, including Sunday’s Grade 2 Delaware Handicap with Honor D Lady. The classy and fast 6-Mystic Lake promises to be the one to catch over this 1-1/16 miles stretch-out. Given the field size, modest pace scenario and heat of the barn currently, she stands a big-time chance to wire. 3-Power Squeeze should appreciate the drop in class and is a viable favorite under Javier Castellano. But I’ll take the speed of Mystic Lake and hope to last in the lane. X-factor here is 7-Sidamara, a rising player for Bill Mott with an impeccable pedigree and closing kick. Work her into the exacta.

Race 10: maiden special weight

Anchor leg to the late pick 4 and late pick 5, this turf route MSW will have a heavy favorite in 9-Toy Collector for Christophe Clement and Jose Ortiz. Should be tough to beat off a debut nose runner-up as the favorite over this course and now gets an A-list rider. Consider rookie 3-Rashmi, well-drawn, working well and well-bred, for capable trainer Jonathan Thomas.