Midway through the most prestigious week in horse racing, it’s time to take a shot at building up the Kentucky Derby bankroll with action from Happy Valley in Hong Kong. After a whiff on FWD Champions Day, I’m gonna do my best to shake off the bad day and bounce back in a big way.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – April 30

Past Performances 
Speed Pro Pace Projections 

Unique Bet Types

OMNI – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order, get paid for each correct combination

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.

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Race 1 | 1650 Meters (~1 Mile) | Class 5 | Turf

Key: #3 CERVIN (6/1 ML)

Put this horse in this race after his January 8th effort, and I’d mark him the favorite in this field. In fact, he had performed well enough to bump up to the Class 4 ranks and make a run at 1800 meters. He took the lead in his Class 4 effort and the distance was just too much for him. He gets sent back down to Class 5 and returns to this distance where he’s all over down the stretch and can’t finish a good trip. Given his somewhat good recent form and the addition of Zac Purton, Hong Kong’s leading jockey, I’d say he has a solid chance.
But the numbers don’t love him, ranking him third in the group by a healthy five points. As much as my gut likes him outright, calculations that I trust think he may still be beaten. We won’t play him with any short prices, though, and instead will opt for a few other well-priced contenders to complete the Omni (for the uninitiated, the Omni requires you to pick two of the top three runners and they can finish in any order). #2 YOUNG HORIZON (14/1 ML), #4 U S S CONSTITUTION (7/1 ML) and #6 SKY PROPHET (13/2 ML) help round out the top four most highly rated, outside of our morning line favorite #5 CALIFORNIA MOXIE, and should help us make a nice trip to the cashier.

Betting Strategy
Win - #3 CERVIN
Omni – 2,3,4,6
Trifecta – 2,3,4,6 w/ 5 w/ 2,3,4,6

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Race 3 | 1000 Meters (5 Furlongs) | Class 2 | Turf

Key: #2 AURORA LADY (7/2 ML)

As much as it pains me to do this, I just want to play this horse heavily straight up. #7 GLORY ELITE (6/1 ML) will fire from the fifth post and take the lead. Just to his outside will sit AURORA LADY from the next post over. Morning line favorite #8 COLORFUL KING (5/2 ML) will be just a hair too slow to be mid-pack and will end up a few lengths off the lead, new territory for this first-timer in Class 2. The traffic jam will ensue as everyone fights for room, and from a cleanly rated trip our top pick will emerge with open lanes and find the wire first.

At least that’s the prediction I’m going with. The power ratings have this gelding as the second choice by less than a point, but the trip projection is set up beautifully for Zac Purton to steal another one on the day and send us home with full pockets. The other top contenders are a bit too short for me to construct some crazy day-maker. Instead, I’ll be making my most sizable win bet of the day and singling in the Pick 3 starting in this race.

Betting Strategy
Win - #2 AURORA LADY
Pick 3 – 2 w/ 2,3,4 w/ 1,2,4