by Frank Carulli
April 30, 2025
Reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna won the Kentucky Oaks last year to cap a Churchill Downs All-Stakes Pick 4 that paid $6,064 for a 50-cent wager. The payout could be lucrative again this Friday, May 3, with 43 entrants in the sequence that concludes with the $1.5 million Oaks. But you’ll have to beat a few short-priced favorites to make it pay. Here’s a closer look:
CD 8th race (3:12 p.m. EST) -- Six of the eight fillies and mares entered in the Grade III Modesty have won at the 1-1/8-mile distance and are a combined 23-42 on turf with average earnings of $500,000. That being said, SHE FEELS PRETTY clearly is the one to beat with three Grade I victories at different venues by a combined 12-3/4 lengths. She earned her only triple-digit Beyer speed figure when she ‘kicked away with good energy’ at this distance in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland in the fall. The millionairess won all three times with at least 2-1/2 months between starts and also boasts a Grade I win on a soft turf that could come into play with a chance of rain in the advance forecast. SAFFRON MOON rallied to win back-to-back graded stakes on the Tampa Bay Downs lawn to begin her 6-year-old season. She was handled with supreme confidence in Grade II Hillsborough, waiting patiently under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat as a rival swept past the field on the final turn. She closed with a rush between rivals and held off the late-closing GIMME A NOTHER for the photo-finish victory. GIMME A NOTHER was making her U.S. debut off a 10-month layoff and could turn the tables for new trainer Graham Motion.
CD 9th race (4:07 p.m. EST) -- IMPULSE BUY makes her 3-year-old debut in the Grade II 8Belles off a five-month layoff. She was last seen making a monster move on the turn at Churchill Downs, angling 6-wide for the stretch run and rallying past three next-out stakes runners-up. She benefited from a fast pace but gets an extra half-furlong to travel as our top pick in here. MENDELA gets the class test off a smashing maiden victory at Oaklawn Park. She tracked a fast pace while 5-wide, gathered momentum on the turn, swung to mid-track for the stretch drive and blew away the field despite lugging in some. The extra furlong should be no problem for her. Morning-line favorites ECLATANT and VERITY conquered this distance to become the only graded stakes winners in the crowded field. ECLATANT defeated three next-out winners in the Grade III Forward Gal but has post 12 to contend with today. VERITY kept the pace-setting favorite honest in the Grade 2 Beaumont and powered away from Stunner – the same runner-up that ECLATANT beat -- in the final sixteenth on a sloppy track.
CD 10th race (4:51 p.m. EST) -- AG BULLET is 6-for-10 on turf, a graded stakes winner at Santa Anita and Kentucky Downs, 3-for-3 returning from 2-plus months and a neck short of beating the boys in the Breeders’ Cup, her lone short sprint attempt on the lawn. QUEEN MAXIMA’S fourth consecutive victory at Santa Anita came in her first graded stakes attempt, but she widened her lead against three rivals who arrived off victories and were in top form. She cuts back to a short sprint in today’s Grade 3 Unbridled Sydney but should sit an ideal stalking trip from the outside. CROWN IMPERIAL has improved steadily, was resilient when she won an allowance on a ‘good’ turf at Keeneland off an eight-month layoff and benefits from a lively pace scenario at a big price. GAVEA adapted well to sprinting on the turf, rallying for back-to-back 5-1/2F wins against weaker company at Fair Grounds. She brushed with a rival at the break last out and steadied on the turn before rallying 7-wide in the race prior. She lures Prat to ride, so use her on the Pick 4 ticket.
CD 11th race (5:51 p.m. EST) -- GOOD CHEER will be a solo play on a lot of tickets in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks – and with good reason. She is 6-for-6, won by a combined 42-1/2 lengths, and was a short-priced favorite every time, including three straight Grade II wins at 1-1/16 miles. She draws outside post 4 for only the second time and, like most of her rivals, tries 9 furlongs for the first time. SIMPLY JOKING looms a live longshot after she was scratched from the February 15 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, her scheduled Kentucky Oaks prep, will an illness. She returned in the Grade II Fantasy at Oaklawn Park, set a ‘moderate pace’ under a snug hold and just missed after a ‘spirited’ stretch duel with 3-to-5 winner QUIETSIDE, who draws post 14 in here. Her dam was a proven stakes winner going a route of ground. FIVE G blossomed on the transition from turf to dirt. She fell a neck short from post 13 in lieu of three consecutive front-end victories, two in graded stakes company. She showed a passing gear in her maiden victory and probably will need one in here, but at double-digit odds, she gets a spot on the ticket.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
CD 8th Race: 2, 7, 8
CD 9th Race: 7, 10
CD 10th Race: 3, 4, 7, 9
CD 11th Race: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $36