There are big Pick 5 pools and there is the sequence that ends with the Kentucky Derby. In fact, along with the late pick 5 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday, this is the largest such pool of the year, handling $4.4M in 2024 after a record $5.2M in 2023. So, let’s see if we can take our slice of things in 2025 after failing to do so the last couple of years.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 8: Churchill Downs (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Giant Mischief; 11 Mullikin; 10 Nysos
Backups: None

Forecast: There is no doubt this 7-furlong dash is one of the most exciting races on the Derby slate with the return of some of potential stars, but from a wagering perspective I struggled a bit.

The last thing you want to do on a day like this is spread without including options that allow you to separate from the public. Since, I have respect for the logicals, yet do not fully trust them it forces me to make some decisions. Using both #7 Mindframe and #10 Nysos is not the right move, especially if I want to include others, so I opted to toss Mindframe. The son of Constitution has never run a bad race, but also has struggled to truly seal the deal of late. He can win, but will likely be an underlay. Nysos upside is obvious, much like #11 Mullikin, but both are coming off layoffs. Mullikin’s is far shorter, but he also does not possess the numbers of the undefeated Bob Baffert trainee. Both are tough to toss, but equally difficult to push all in on.

#4 Giant Mischief may be a cut below, but also is likely to get overlooked. The Brad Cox trainee comes into this spot in the best form of his career and could find himself on the engine over a racetrack he has a first and second over in two tries. He feels like the best potential value in a fun way to start the sequence.



Race 9: American Turf (G1)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1 Warlander; 4 Mi Bago; 6 Maximum Promise; 7 Zulu Kingdom
Backups: 3 New Century; 8 Charlie’s to Blame; Iron Man Cal

Forecast: This two-turn race for 3YOs over the lawn has busted a lot of horseplayers the last two years, including yours truly. Webslinger at 22-1 was tough enough to come up with, let alone Trikari last year at odds of 47-1. Hopefully, we have the right prices on our tickets in 2025. #1 Warlander should be a big price. He was cost all chance when extremely wide throughout at Keeneland last out. The Kitten’s Joy colt shook off the rust that day and draws the rail. He should move forward, but the question is how much. #4 Mi Bago gave it up badly at Keeneland last out in the Transylvania (G3), but that was a race and a turf course that favored off the pace. He is dangerous on the front end. #6 Maximum Promise has only won once, but has run better than looks in his races against stakes foes. He is another that has a chance with the right trip to blow this thing open for the third consecutive year.


Race 10: Derby City Distaff (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2 Kopion
Backups: 13 My Mane Squeeze; 8 Ways and Means; 11 Positano Sunset; 3 Benedetta

Forecast: As my colleague Jeremy Plonk said, this 7-furlong dash for the ladies has the class and depth to pass for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. There are some prices that have a chance to outrun their odds, but #2 Kopion stands out a bit, especially at anything close to her 8-1-morning line offering. The Omaha Beach filly is a perfect 4 for 4 in her one-turn races, comes in off a pair of dominant performances against the best in California, and should get a favorable forward voyage under jockey Kazushi Kimura.

I will use several as backups, including a bit of a reach in #3 Benedetta. She is probably not fast enough to win, but has been up against a bit in her last couple and appears ready for her best. I will mostly try to sneak her underneath in the exotics, but leaving her off at 30-1 does not feel like a good life choice.



Race 11: Turf Classic (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Cameo Performance; 3 Highway Robber; 4 Redistricting
Backups: 1 Integration; 7 Running Bee

Forecast: This is about as great of a Derby card as I can recall and this year’s Turf Classic (G1) is potentially a solid wagering opportunity for some, but this field is not of true Grade 1 quality. That said, I am hopeful to separate from the masses in this 9-furlong test over the Churchill lawn.

#5 Cameo Performance would do just that. The Brian Lynch trainee needs to run the race of his life, but that is well within the range of outcomes after his better than looks third-place finish in the Muniz Memorial (G2) at Fair Grounds in late March. Not only was that race won on the front end, but it was Cameo Performance’s first start since last August. Hopefully, he handles the class hike. I will use others though as well in a race where I do not trust the favorites, but lack a super strong opinion.




Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1)
Grade: A-
Main Ticket: #8 Journalism
Backups: 21 Baeza

Forecast: Any horseplayer that plays horizontal wagers dreams of getting to the Derby with a chance to close out a big score. There is no time like the present, especially since I am willing to go thin in 2025.

Like many, #8 Journalism has been at the top of my list ever since his dominant victory in the San Felipe (G2) in early March. He showed his talent that afternoon and then the ability to handle adversity during his narrow victory against #21 Baeza a little over a month later. He is likely to be closer to the pace than many project and is extremely likely to be a major factor late. Barring a bad trip, he should run a big one for Michael McCarthy.
The scratch of Rodriguez allowed Baeza to draw into the field off the also-eligible list. The well-bred son of McKinzie has done virtually nothing wrong since moving to the dirt, lures the best rider in the game, and could get a bit forgotten by some that had already made up their mind on their tickets or opinions. I will include him with my top plays in the first four legs.