by Jeremy Plonk
May 21, 2025
The Lead:
Memorial Day weekend at Santa Anita includes California Gold Rush Day on Saturday, the Grade 2 Santa Margarita on Sunday and a trio of features on the Monday holiday card. There, the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup is joined by the Grade 1 Gamely and Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. The anchor to those is the Shoemaker in Race 9, and even without defending champion Johannes -- who recently returned to training for Tim Yakteen -- it's an appealing bunch.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner FORMIDABLE MAN is joined by a slew of Grade 2 winners, including SEAL TEAM, ATITLAN, MI HERMANO ROMANO, CABO SPIRIT and KING OF GOSFORD. The final pair also are Grade 1-placed. GOLIAD has won at the Grade 3 level. There's not an obvious strength of schedule advantage in play here.
Pace:
Wide-drawn GOLIAD and CABO SPIRIT can be counted on for speed with SEMINOLE CHIEF and KING OF GOSFORD in close attendance. This should be average or above-average in terms of tempo.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-SEAL TEAM: The 2023 Twilight Derby winner dropped 3 head-to-head decisions vs. Mi Hermano Romano at the end of 2024. He was a late-running third in the Thunder Road in February when last seen. Trainer Richard Mandella is a 3-time Shoemaker Mile winner, and jockey Juan Hernandez won this race 2 years ago aboard Exaulted. In the mix for a share, but tough spot to notch first turf mile victory.
#2-ATITLAN: Serious cut-back for John Shirreffs trainee who has won the Twilight Derby, Charlie Whittingham and San Luis Rey between 9-12 furlongs. He closed from the clouds to win a turf mile at Del Mar to break his maiden last summer and will need the pace to come back to jockey Antonio Fresu. Wasn't as effective in the Mathis Mile when trying to stay closer to the pace.
#3-SEMINOLE CHIEF: Florida-based Girvin colt has steadily improved this year after missing most of his 2024 sophomore season. Jack Sisterson trainee won the Appleton at Gulfstream over this mile trip, draws well, has tactical speed and lures jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. That rider came west to win the '22 Shoemaker aboard Count Again.
#4-KING OF GOSFORD: 4-time Shoemaker Mile-winning trainer Phil D'Amato has the Grade 2 Mathis Mile winner squarely in the hunt. Colt has won 4 of 6 over the Santa Anita lawn, but was runner-up at 4-5 last out in the April 20 Grade 3 American behind Shoemaker rival Cabo Spirit. Should get more pace help this time in the rematch. Regular rider Flavien Prat is back and he's 4: 3-1-0 when paired on this runner.
#5-FORMIDABLE MAN: Preakness-winning connections of trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli hope for smoother sailing and similar results. Santa Anita-based colt has been well-traveled, but right at home last out in winning the March 1 Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at a square $12 mutuel. He's won 4 of 5, missing only in the Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream in January. Rispoli won this race last year aboard Johannes; he and McCarthy teamed to win it in 2021 with Smooth Like Strait.
#6-ZIO JO: 3-time turf allowance winner on the SoCal circuit hasn't been far off in the stakes, but needs a breakthrough performance at this level. Doug O'Neill trainee chased several Shoemaker opponents in the American, Kilroe Mile, Thunder Road and Seabiscuit in his last 4 starts, beaten no more than 4-1/2 lengths in any of those. Kyle Frey rides the Nyquist gelding.
#7-MI HERMANO RAMON: Disappointing fifth as the 4-5 favorite in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile when unable to close the deal inside under Flavien Prat. Loses that pilot to King of Gosford on Monday, but reunites with Hector Berrios, his winning rider in Del Mar's Grade 2 Seabiscuit. Late-runner gets some pace to utilize in this race and should be an inflated price.
#8-CABO SPIRIT: Front-running winner of the 10F John Henry Turf over this course in September as well as the Grade 3 American at a mile in April. George Papaprodomou has managed a $1.1 million career out of this 6-year-old son of Pioneerof the Nile. Best races consistently have been when able to make the front, so expect Frankie Dettori to askhim for run from the jump.
#9-GOLIAD: Lightly raced 8-year-old makes his first start since the Breeders' Cup Mile in November. Trainer Richard Mandella has solved the Shoemaker Mile with aged runners before: 7-year-old Bal a Bali, 8-year-old Redattore and 9-year-old The Tin Man. Nearly all this one's success comes when able to stake on the front end, and should find competition for that spot with Cabo Spirit just to his inside. Mike Smith hopes saddles from Cabo Spirit to Goliad in the Shoemaker.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
KING OF GOSFORD has finished in the trifecta in 11 of his last 12 starts, including 6 straight.
Best Longshot Contender:
Don't expect a huge price, but MI HERMANO RAMON had straight superfecta finishes between 6-1 and 13-1 prior to being beaten as the favorite last out. He'll be back to a healthy price.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 exacta key-box MI HERMANO RAMON with KING OF GOSFORD and FORMIDABLE MAN ($100).