We knew about the Gulfstream Rainbow 6 mandatory before yesterday, but had little clue the final Sunday in May would also bring us a $290k carryover in the late Pick 5 at Churchill Downs. The big number is a result of a trio of longshots that crossed the wire first in Races 2, 3, and 4 under the twin spires. It understandably gets confusing at times, but any carryover at Churchill (early, middle, or late) always moves into the late sequence. So with that in mind, let’s dive in!


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 6:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9 Good Game
Backups: 5 Wildfire Princess; 10 Oak Alley

Forecast: The sequence kicks off with a full field MSW over the lawn where I am high on #9 Good Game’s chances. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset moved the Game Winner filly to the grass after several subpar starts over the main track to kick off her career and it appeared to work. She failed to hit the board at Keeneland on April 12, but definitely ran better than looks in a race that fell apart late. I am hopeful Florent Geroux sends her aggressively out of the gate so she does not get caught wide again throughout. Expect a big effort with a bit better trip than last month.

#10 Oak Alley is somewhat of a defensive use given the carryover, but I am not interested in including the ML favorite on a ticket with the heavy ML favorite in the 9th. #5 Wildfire Princess is an intriguing bomb though. She has a lot to prove still obviously after getting crushed on debut, but her mare won 5 of 11 over the grass in California. Plus, not only am I willing to toss the Keeneland start on April 24 of the dirt because she was beaten out of the gate when down on the rail, but isn’t it a little intriguing that Irad Ortiz Jr. took the call for trainer Bob Hess Jr.?


Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Xander; 6 Sutherland
Backups: 5 Lend It Tewmey

Forecast: #1 Rivalry comes in off a win over this surface against non-winners of two foes and retains Luis Saez, but I do not trust him at 8-5. He was able to pull away late on Tuesday of Derby week, but that came over a major speed favoring surface. The 6YO is likely to have things a bit tougher this afternoon.

#8 Xander is my top pick. The Good Samaritan gelding proved himself for the first time over the dirt last out against lesser in Indiana. Prior to that he had competed mostly over other surfaces. Trainer Chris Davis lures Jose Ortiz on a horse that should beat these if able to replicate his effort at Horseshoe Indy 20 days ago. #6 Sutherland has not won in ages, but he was down on a dead rail on May 10. The blinkers go on making him an intriguing price option. #5 Lend It Tewmey is a bit of a reach to me at his ML price, but he is the only other one I can see besting the chalk, so I will include with my strongest opinions.


Race 8:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Furio
Backups: 8 Thrilla

Forecast: #7 Furio looks like a legitimate 5-2-top choice in this 6-furlong dash over the main track. The McKinzie colt has finished off the board in his last two starts, but the first one came when he was part of a contentious pace in the Louisiana Derby (G2). That was followed up by a big run over the off track on Kentucky Derby Day against a much better group than he encounters today. He is the clear one to beat.

If Furio tires again late, I hope it is #8 Thrilla that gets to the wire first. The Preservationist colt has continued to get better for veteran conditioner Keith Desormeaux. He ran a very good second last out to Gunmetal at Keeneland and could get the perfect early spot off the battling leaders. If you are thin enough elsewhere, consider including him on all or most of your tickets with Furio.


Race 9:
Grade:
Main Ticket: 12 Mountain Bear; 8 Ocean Pointe
Backups: 2 Tut’s Revenge; 4 Ak Sar Ben Derby

Forecast: In my opinion, the most difficult decision within this sequence is how to handle #12 Mountain Bear. He stands out on class and numbers and is 4-5 on the morning line. If he runs anything close to his recent starts he is going to win under wraps, but there are also questions, especially at a short price. Not only is the far outside draw with Corey Lanerie aboard not ideal, but he has not raced since last October. Plus, why did he remain here with Wesley Ward, instead of returning to Aidan O’Brien overseas. It is impossible to knock his resume, but it is not a spot I am willing to push all in on.

It takes a leap of faith if you are handicapping the race on paper to find runners good enough to beat Mountain Bear, but the assumption if you try is that he simply does not fire. If that happens, this is wide-open so I will include longshot #8 Ocean Pointe on all tickets. He did not have an excuse last out at Keeneland, but did in his prior two starts off the long layoff at Turfway Park. The son of Kitten’s Joy put forth a huge effort over this course in 2023 and will be a major separator from the public.


Race 10:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 11 Aviso, 1 Flash Wear; 2 Next Up; 3 Zaghruta
Backups: 6 Itwillbefun; 4 Take Charge Omaha; 8 Talent Show

Forecast: I lack much of an opinion in the finale, so good thing I have some stronger ones early on. If you can go thin with confidence in a race like this where most will spread it is a great move. It will give you leverage in other spots where most will go thin or allow you to press up on your opinions. Good luck closing things out!