Saturday is Stephen Foster Preview Day at Churchill Downs, which means six stake races to close out a competitive 11-race card. As always in Louisville, there is a Pick 4 offered over the last four races and in this case, it happens to be of the all-graded stakes variety.

The sequence kicks off in Race 8 and those who hit it at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET will split 3 million 1/ST Rewards Points. You know how Hit & Splits work by now I assume, but if not head to the promotional landing page for details. Be sure to remember to register!


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8: Shawnee (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Corningstone; 7 Gin Gin; 3 Royal Spa
Backups: 1 Where’s My Ring; 8 In Just My Heels

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this 1 1/16-mile event for fillies and mares. #1 Where’s My Ring was made the 5-2-ML choice by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The Twirling Candy filly has a few races that beat these, but trainer Peter Miller is 0 for 5 at Churchill Downs over the last two years and just 8 for 95 in the last 90 days. She perhaps is the one to beat, but more tough to trust. The same is true of #7 Gin Gin. She won convincingly in the Doubledogdare (G3) in her first start for Brendan Walsh, but was 38-1 and beat a lot of no shows that afternoon at Keeneland. I like her chances more than Where’s My Ring, but also give a few longshots a chance to spring the upset.

#2 Corningstone was cost all chance at the start last out in the Bayakoa (G3) and has run first or second in all 4 starts over the Churchill Downs main track. She is not the likeliest winner, but might be the best value. #3 Royal Spa is probably stretching things taking on this level of competition at 8.5-furlongs, but she also has run well over this surface and attracts Flavien Prat. I am not sure she goes off the same price as Corningstone, but she is likely to still offer solid separation from the public in the first leg.



Race 9: Arlington (G3)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9 Brilliant Berti (pictured)
Backups: None

Forecast: I am all about #9 Brilliant Berti in this 1 1/16-mile test over the Churchill lawn. The Klein Racing colt has done little wrong in his career winning 6 of 9 to date, including a perfect 4 for 4-record over this course. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode him like the best horse in the Opening Verse on May 1 and he won by a measured half-length in the end. The Noble Mission colt meets a solid group in this year’s Arlington (G3), but appears poised for a career best effort third off the layoff for trainer Cherie DeVaux.



Race 10: Blame (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Banishing; 7 Most Wanted
Backups: 3 Antiquarian

Forecast: For a $275k Grade 3, the Blame came up extremely strong. Hopefully this sets things up for one of the better Stephen Foster’s in recent years on closing weekend. #9 Post Time was made the lukewarm 3-1-favorite after a romp off the layoff against lesser at Laurel earlier this month. The Maryland-bred is as honest as they come, but I still prefer him at one-turn against this level of competition.

#7 Most Wanted and #8 Banishing will also take plenty of public action. I prefer them to Post Time and had a hard time separating the two. Most Wanted has not won since the Oklahoma Derby (G3) last September, but his three consecutive runner-up efforts would all put him squarely in the mix in here. He will likely have to earn on the front end though after a big run against Fierceness in the Alysheba (G2). Banishing is far more battle tested to say the least. He continues to run massive races at different distances against top tier horses for trainer David Jacobson. The 9-furlongs is probably stretching him, but I am tired of doubting this son of Ghostzapper who comes in off real rest after racing 3 times from March 29 to May 3.

#3 Antiquarian is probably a reach on top, but also will be a huge price. I prefer the idea of keying him underneath in the exotics, but he is getting better and wants all the ground he can get. I am expecting a strong run from the Preservationist colt at his 15-1 ML odds.



Race 11: Regret (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Classic Q
Backups: 2 Hereforagoodtime

Forecast: #5 Classic Q looks like the right horse in the finale. The Classic Empire filly worked out a good trip, but won for total fun over this course on April 30. She did have Lasix that afternoon and will race without it on Saturday, but I am not overly concerned. Her effort two-back at Gulfstream Park did not earn her the same figure, but she had a terrible trip in the Sanibel Island and still lost by less than two lengths. Trainer Mark Casse has been dominant with 3YO fillies going long on the turf thus far in 2025 and should earn another victory here with Jose Ortiz back aboard.

If Classic Q regresses on the class hike, #2 Hereforagoodtime appears capable of springing the upset. She too has to answer the Lasix question, but ran well in her first try over this course on May 8. She gets Jose’s brother aboard for the first time and a favorable inside draw.