It has been a long, cold streak for me in the Pearl of the Orient, but it’s another day and another opportunity to turn some things around! My ROI for the meet is still above the dirt, but a heavy day at Happy Valley this Wednesday cost me a lot of ground. That’s the nature of the business, though, we have peaks and valleys and stick to our discipline through it all.

Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +34%

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – May 31
Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20250531_starter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speedpro/english/formguide/formguide.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.

Race 1 | 1400M | Class 5
Win – 10 HO HO STAR
Quinella Box – 2,10,12

Notes: 10 HO HO STAR (21/1 ML) has shown an ability to close well at six furlongs in his last five races and gets an extra furlong to close out this field. His morning line odds don’t reflect what I believe to be a strong streak of races he’s on. Morning line favorite 1 CIRCUIT MIGHTY has had the benefit of running at a ten-pound handicap in his last two races in Class 4, and even though he’s dropping to Class 5 for this one I don’t think he’s quite fast enough in his seven-year-old campaign to be deserving of the 2/1 odds. Other price-favorable standouts include 2 LUCKY MAN (11/1) firing from the rail and 12 TATTENHAM (9/2) who both have put up consistently strong speed ratings coming into this bout.

Race 6 | 1600M | G3 The Lion Rock Trophy
Win – 1 RED LION
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 4,7

Notes: In the headlining race of the card, a group of familiar foes are running it back again over a mile. 1 RED LION (15/2 ML) looks like he’s going to get the lead again from the rail draw and could gate-to-wire this field. His biggest competitor will be morning line favorite 6 SUNSHINE POWER (2/1 ML) who will be tasked with chasing him down again, a feat he was unable to do in their last race against one another. It’ll take a repeat of a huge run, but I like our chances. In the off-chance that SUNSHINE POWER gets caught up in a hectic field, two attractive prices come in 4 BEAUTY JOY (11/1) and 7 DIVANO (15/2) who are in good form and have a solid chance at crashing the board.

Race 10 | 1650M | Class 2 (All-Weather)
Win – 11
Exacta – 11 w/ 1,5,10

Notes: 11 TALENTS AMBITION (7/2 ML) looks like a horse for the course and surface here, and gets the added benefit of carrying only 116 pounds. This four-year-old son of INTO MISCHIEF not only has demonstrated the ability to run well carrying up to 135 pounds, but has a record of 7-2-1-3 on the All-Weather course at Sha Tin. His Morning Line is fairly short, but I like some prices underneath to make his victory even sweeter. 1 HELENE FEELING (16/1 ML) is making his first try on the synthetic course, but is in great form lately running against Class 2 competition or better. 5 TELECOM FIGHTERS (52/1 ML) is likely to be the front-runner, and while he has struggled to hold it we are presented with some uncertainty at a big price. I like his chances at those odds of holding on just long enough to be chased down by our top choice. 10 MUST GO (10/1 ML) is an intriguing choice, but has not quite been capable of going this distance. He can certainly be in the mix, however, and has demonstrated sustained success on the All-Weather course going 16-5-3-1 in mostly sprints before getting this bump in class.