If you saw my blog on the wagering menu this weekend, you are aware of the quantity of horizontal bets available for horseplayers this weekend in Saratoga Springs. This is great because it allows us to leverage our strongest opinions, but there is no doubt one of the horizontal pools that will see the most attention is the Mandatory Payout Pick 5 that kicks off with the Jaipur (Race 9, 4:08 PM) and concludes with the Belmont Stakes. Think Big and Zulu Kingdom are listed as 6-5-morning line favorites in their respective races, but from there it gets a lot more challenging. That said, this is a sequence where unless you are willing to fade the favorites in the first two legs, trying to hit it multiple times instead of taking a big ticket caveman approach seems wise.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Jaipur (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Ag Bullet
Backups: 2 Think Big; 8 Alogon

Forecast: Think Big is definitely the horse to beat in this 5.5-furlong dash over the grass. The Twirling Candy gelding has rattled off 3 in a row and 4 of 5 since switching surfaces in December for veteran conditioner Michael Stidham. He has hard to knock on paper, but certainly competed over the good part of the turf course last out when nailing Boss Sully in the final strides of the Turf Sprint (G2) on Derby Day. He has remained in the clear in his two graded stakes wins, but draws down on the inside today. It could work out perfectly if Ben Curtis is able to relax him, save ground, and work out a trip, but that is not always as easy as it sounds. Just ask #9 Ag Bullet.

Ag Bullet will likely have to prove herself over another turf course with give in it, but she certainly did not have a fair chance last out in the Unbridled Sidney (G3). It was Umberto Rispoli aboard this Twirling Candy mare against her own gender last month when she was stopped badly trying to find room along the inside of the Churchill Downs sod. She is 6 for 13, moves to an outside draw, and gets Flavien Prat. I like her chances to bounce back against the boys. #8 Alogon is the one likeliest to spring an upset. He ran very well off the layoff to finish third last out in the Elusive Quality and that came after losing significant position during the midway point of that 6-furlong dash. Jose Ortiz will get the leg up this time for trainer Ned Allard.


Race 10: Pennine Ridge (G3)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1 Zulu Kingdom
Backups: None

Forecast: I have tried to beat #1 Zulu Kingdom many times thus far throughout his 5-race career in the States. It only worked once. Sure, he competed over the better part of the Churchill Downs lawn in the American Turf (G1), but won somewhat easily in the end against a field of 13 rivals, some of who also had favorable voyages. The inside draw and Flavien Prat only add to this Chad Brown trainee’s obvious case.


Race 11: Woody Stephens (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Gunmetal; 9 Neoequos
Backups: 1 Big Truzz; 4 Patch Adams

Forecast: The Belmont Stakes and Met Mile will get more fanfare, but the best race on Saturday when you consider quality and quality of wagering opportunities is the Woody Stephens. This 7-furlong dash over the main track drew a great mix of Derby Trail types hoping to find their niche and up and comers that at least at this point or definitely sprinters.

For the most part, I prefer those that have not raced as much through the spring, but that is not the case with #9 Neoequos. The Florida-bred has really never ran a poor race. His Kentucky Derby result looks terrible on paper, but is extremely forgivable and it is difficult to knock his third-place runs in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). He should get a chance to employ more patient tactics finally cutting back in distance and getting off the inside. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. legs up Jose Ortiz for the first time. I like his chances to run well, but trust #8 Gunmetal slightly more. The son of Gun Runner is 2 for 3 with his lone defeat coming when he was caught up in a three-horse battle on the front end in the Swale in early February. He draws favorably outside the other speeds and appears poised for a big run under Irad Ortiz Jr. The fact he should get a clean run on the outside, plus the jump on most of his main rivals is noteworthy.

#1 Big Truzz is a colt I am high on. Big Truzz’s rail draw is the obvious concern, but it should also inflate his price. #4 Patch Adams was one of the favorites to win the Derby this winter, but disappointed. He definitely appears better at one-turn, but has to prove himself outside of Louisville still.


Race 12: Manhattan (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Highway Robber
Backups: 6 Spirit of St Louis; 9 Far Bridge

Forecast: The morning line favorites #6 Spirit of St Louis and #9 Far Bridge look formidable, but this division in North America has no monsters. I will use those two as backups, but I like #3 Highway Robber most in this year’s Manhattan (G1). The Brian Lynch trainee ran huge all things considered last out in the Turf Classic (G1). Not only was it his first start back since racing unsuccessfully overseas, but he was down on the inside over a turf course that favored those racing well off the rail. The son of Hard Spun has races last year that put him right there at the wire with anyone in this field and he could easily get overlooked in the wagering. Hopefully jockey Christian Torres, who is taking over for the injured Declan Cannon, can work out a trip!


Race 13: Belmont Stakes(G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Baeza
Backups: 7 Journalism

Forecast: I have not been this excited for the Belmont Stakes in years. The Derby winner, the Preakness winner, and the less experienced third-place finisher out of Louisville. It should be one for the ages, but that does not mean you should use all three of them on your tickets together. There are definitely cases where that is okay, but they often require aggressive plays in other races. So, take a stand against unless one of them, if not two.

I have major respect for all three colts, but #6 Baeza is the best bet assuming he is more than at least double the price of Journalism and Sovereignty. The son of McKinzie nearly bested Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and then Flavien Prat’s hand was forced when he broke from the 19-hole on the first Saturday in May. He was finishing well in the Derby, still has upside, and should get the jump on his main rivals this time around.

If one of the other five runners entered wins the 2025 Belmont Stakes, I will simply tip my cap and admit I was wrong. Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza all seem like super legitimate 3YOs coming into this race in top form. One putting in a dud at the Spa, even two is well within the range of outcomes, but besting all three feels like a very tall task.