Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 11: Woody Stephens (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Gunmetal; 9 Neoequos
Backups: 1 Big Truzz; 4 Patch Adams

Forecast: The Belmont Stakes and Met Mile will get more fanfare, but the best race on Saturday when you consider quality and quality of wagering opportunities is the Woody Stephens. This 7-furlong dash over the main track drew a great mix of Derby Trail types hoping to find their niche and up and comers that at least at this point or definitely sprinters.

For the most part, I prefer those that have not raced as much through the spring, but that is not the case with #9 Neoequos. The Florida-bred has really never ran a poor race. His Kentucky Derby result looks terrible on paper, but is extremely forgivable and it is difficult to knock his third-place runs in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). He should get a chance to employ more patient tactics finally cutting back in distance and getting off the inside. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. legs up Jose Ortiz for the first time. I like his chances to run well, but trust #8 Gunmetal slightly more. The son of Gun Runner is 2 for 3 with his lone defeat coming when he was caught up in a three-horse battle on the front end in the Swale in early February. He draws favorably outside the other speeds and appears poised for a big run under Irad Ortiz Jr. The fact he should get a clean run on the outside, plus the jump on most of his main rivals is noteworthy.

#1 Big Truzz is a colt I am high on. Big Truzz’s rail draw is the obvious concern, but it should also inflate his price. #4 Patch Adams was one of the favorites to win the Derby this winter, but disappointed. He definitely appears better at one-turn, but has to prove himself outside of Louisville still.


Race 13: Belmont Stakes(G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Baeza
Backups: 7 Journalism

Forecast: I have not been this excited for the Belmont Stakes in years. The Derby winner, the Preakness winner, and the less experienced third-place finisher out of Louisville. It should be one for the ages, but that does not mean you should use all three of them on your tickets together. There are definitely cases where that is okay, but they often require aggressive plays in other races. So, take a stand against unless one of them, if not two.

I have major respect for all three colts, but #6 Baeza is the best bet assuming he is more than at least double the price of Journalism and Sovereignty. The son of McKinzie nearly bested Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and then Flavien Prat’s hand was forced when he broke from the 19-hole on the first Saturday in May. He was finishing well in the Derby, still has upside, and should get the jump on his main rivals this time around.

If one of the other five runners entered wins the 2025 Belmont Stakes, I will simply tip my cap and admit I was wrong. Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza all seem like super legitimate 3YOs coming into this race in top form. One putting in a dud at the Spa, even two is well within the range of outcomes, but besting all three feels like a very tall task.