After being shut out of horizontal wagers for the majority of Belmont Stakes Day, I am sure like me, many of you are champing at the bit to get back into them this afternoon. The good news is there are favorable sequences to fire at! Yes, in addition to a $2 Pick 6 carryover of nearly $55K at Santa Anita Park later on, there is a massive $241,646 late Pick 5 carryover at Churchill Downs that starts at 2:45 eastern time. So, let’s get right to it.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 5: Leslie’s Lady
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Evanescence; 1 Eclatant
Backups: None

Forecast: The carryover kicks off with one of the two stake races within the sequence. This 7-furlong affair for 3YO filles drew a few runners that competed last month in the Eight Belles (G2), including the two I will use.

I was willing to fade #1 Eclatant before #3 Impulse Buy was scratched this morning, but the Into Mischief filly could be loose on the lead under Luis Saez. I do not fully trust her despite her potential pace advantage, but she could have things her way. Race shape aside, I much prefer #6 Evanescence though. The Eddie Kenneally barn has been rolling and this filly put in a strong run in the aforementioned Eight Belles despite a slow break from the rail. I like her chances quite a bit if she gets an honest pace to run at.


Race 6:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 15 Perfect Figure 11 Myiyla; 12 Sweet Kaufy
Backups: 1 Bourbon Serengeti; 3 Mighty Eriu

Forecast: I lack a creative and strong opinion in this 5.5-furlong turf dash for fillies and mares, so I will use several, including lukewarm top choice #15 Perfect Figure. The Caracaro filly needs to draw in off the AE list, but if she does, she appears live in her second start off the bench for Brad Cox. Last out she was caught in a tight spot early and behind horses late before finding a way to get up for third in the end. The move to the far outside should allow her to avoid traffic issues this time around. #11 Myiyla also makes sense after breaking her maiden in March despite being caught four-wide throughout over the Fair Grounds lawn. If they go fast, she should be rolling late.


Race 7:

Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Anthonian; 1 Justifreak
Backups: 11 Honest Al; 9 Gettinby

Forecast: I am hoping to separate some from the public in this non-winners of two at 6-furlongs over the main track since I am against 3-1-ML favorite #3 Chance. The Tom Drury Jr. trainee has run some good races, but it has been a while since he has had his picture taken. This race is far more wide-open than the tote is likely to illustrate.

I like #7 Anthonian most. The Randy Morse trainee came off a long layoff last November to break his maiden over this racetrack before being against the track profile in a pair of first-level allowance events at Oaklawn Park this winter. He has been freshened up and should offer great value within the sequence. #1 Justifreak is also a must use. He has run well in Louisville, but like some does not appear to enjoy it as much at Keeneland. Eddie Kenneally drops the Justify gelding in for a tag for the first time and legs up Ben Curtis.


Race 8: Matt Winn (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 East Avenue; 5 Burnham Square
Backups: None

Forecast: The Matt Winn drew a strong cast this year, but unfortunately it is going to be difficult to find value with just four going to the gate. Taking a stand of some sort though is important, unless you are taking more aggressive stands elsewhere.

#2 Final Gambit, #5 Burnham Square, and #7 East Avenue are relatively equal, but 5-2-ML favorite Final Gambit appears up against it from a race shape perspective. The Not This Time colt has shown a tremendous turn of foot over the all-weather and ran an incredibly strong race in the Derby, but does not get out of the gate all that well. This is likely to leave him with too much to do late. Therefore, I will lean on likely lone speed #7 East Avenue and #5 Burnham Square, who should get a much cleaner trip than he did on the first Saturday in May. I would probably try singling East Avenue if there was not over $240k already in the pool.



Race 9:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 British Isles
Backups: 7 Freedom’s Way

Forecast: The racing week and the Pick 5 concludes with a second-level allowance over the grass where there is not much early zip signed on. #9 Mena may try to flash speed in his first turf start, but I prefer those who should sit just off him or perhaps take control iff Mena does not take to the surface.

#6 British Isles should find the perfect spot much like Flavien Prat did last out in his allowance win at Keeneland. Prior to that he was cost all chance when finding serious traffic mid-stretch. The 4YO gelding appears to have taken a step forward since trainer Richard Baltas removed the blinkers in March. I like his chances to make it back-to-back wins. If he is defeated, #7 Freedom’s Way could be the one who holds him off. The son of Declaration of War has not won in some time, but ran a very good second to Tucson at Keeneland in mid-April. A repeat makes him capable at 12-1 on the morning line.