Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Gazon (GB); 2-Fleet Feet.
Backups: none.

Forecast:. Following a fairly decet maiden $50,000 win two races back over this course and distance, Gazon (GB) was protected in starters allowance company in his next start but flopped as the favorite, finishing off the board. The performance must have really disappointed his connections, who wheel him back in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 seller, a realistic spot for this four year old gelding. Regular pilot H. Berrios stays aboard for the red hot J. Sadler barn. Fleet Feet is fast on numbers but just 1-for-15 in his career and isn’t one to trust. The good news is that his only win was accomplished at this trip over the local lawn, though that victory came more than a year ago. That said, as a first time gelding, he does have a right to produce a significant forward move.


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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Dorie Miller; 6-Goodnight Nellie.
Backups: 5-Happy Sue.

Forecast: Trainer L. Powell doesn’t claim many, but he appears to have made a timely purchase with Dorie Miller, a strong runner-up at 11-1 in a nw-3 $30,000 seller on grass last month and protected today in a first level allowance state-bred dirt sprint for fillies and mares. She’s a fit on numbers, attracts J. Hernandez, and should draft into a second flight, ground-saving position from her rail post and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. Goodnight Nellie needs to step it up a bit in the speed figure department but is lightly raced (just two starts) with plenty of room for improvement. Though beaten at odds-on in a similar main track sprint here last month, the daughter of Lord Nelson was used on the pace before weakening and might be better served today if held up early and allowed to run late.


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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Nokie
Backups: 1-Vegas Love.

Forecast: Nokie returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since she broke her maiden at first asking for $20,000 in Florida more than two years ago. The class drop seems warranted, and at this level the V. Cerin-trained mare appears to have found a field she can handle. Three times second in four starts over the local main track, the daughter of Quality Road lacks tactical speed but at this extended sprint distance she should have every opportunity to produce a winning late kick.


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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 2-Thought Process
Backups: none.

Forecast: If she’s ready – and the work tab suggests she is – the multi-stakes winning Thought Process should outclass this five runner open allowance field in her first start since finishing unplaced in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall. Entered but scratched out of the recent main track Summertime Oaks-G2, the daughter of Collected launches her comeback on familiar footing as a first time Lasix user under new rider U. Rispoli and seems likely to verify her 3/5 morning line listing,


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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Mining District; 2-The GM.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Mining District earned a career top number when a strong runner-up in a similar first level allowance main track sprint, and from his cozy outside draw and with an extra half furlong to work with the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be hard to beat. He’s 9/5 on the morning line and seems likely to go a bit lower. The GM is a bit slower on numbers than our top pick but after graduating in just his second career start last December before stopped on the M. Puype-trained gelding returns with a series of strong workouts and could easily be a better type this time around. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one of these two.


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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Mrs. Astor,
Backups: 3-Kentucky Gal (Ire).

Forecast: Mrs. Astor might be a tad more effective over 12 furlongs but despite shortening up to a mile and one-quarter in this year’s edition of the Possibly Perfect Stakes the veteran mare seems fairly solid at or near her morning line of 6/5. She’s a two-time winner over the local lawn in a race that probably will be reduced to a quarter of a mile sprint from the top of the lane to the wire. And she has the most effective turn of foot.


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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-My Love Caroline; 10-That Ain’t Right.
Backups: none.

Forecast: My Love Caroline had a rugged start in her debut when backed down to 6/5 and it no doubt cost her when third in a quick heat last month. She’ll add blinkers today for a barn that has strong stats with the second time starter angle, so we’re expecting the daughter of Stay Thirsty to step forward significantly and make amends in this state bred affair for juvenile fillies. That Ain’t Right had similar issues at the gate in her only start and did as well as she could thereafter to wind up a distant fourth. She seems sure to improve, her far outside draw notwithstanding, and is a “must use” on the top line,


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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Noble Reflection; 2-Whatmakessammyrun.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Noble Reflection is dropping from $40,000 to $32,000 in his first start since changing barns, not normally a healthy sign, but the L. Barocio outfit can be aggressive with its claiming stock, so we won’t look at this maneuver in a negative light. The son of Liam’s Map is a four time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, and from the rail he is sure to bust out and try to wire the field. Whatmakessammyrun, a prototype late-running turf sprinter, is another course specialist (seven career wins), is always tough at this level, and with good racing luck is sure to be heard from in the final furlong.


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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Cheever; 4-Sierra Silver.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Cheever and Sierra Silver finished third and second, respectively, when they met in a similar older maiden sprint here last month behind the highly promising Southern Gentleman. That race was Cheever’s career debut while ‘Silver had had a prior outing, so based on the “more room for improvement” factor we’ll give the Into Mischief colt the nod on top while including both on the top line. The M. Glatt barn has strong stats with this angle and today’s seven furlong trip should reduce the concern of the rail post. Conversely, ‘Silver had every chance when missing at odds-on in that race and may not be totally trustworthy.

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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Motorious; 2-Bran.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Motorious (pictured) has trained like he’s fit and ready for his first start since December, and with a history of firing fresh the very high class grass sprinter deserves top billing over a Hillside course that we know he can handle in this year’s renewal of the Daytona S.-G3. Bran is the one to fear most and after narrowly missing in the listed Siren Lure S. over the flat course last month in his first outing since July. He’s another Hillside specialist and always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent,


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Santa Anita Race 11: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: J. B. Books; 3-Brother o’ Brien,
Backups: 6-Big Bet.

Forecast: Here’s a somewhat treacherous main track $5,000 claimer that requires some coverage. J. B. Brooks may be as good as any. This is the cheapest he’s ever run for, and he has numbers that exceed what should be required, though in races at this level you can never be sure about a horse’s current condition. Brother o’ Brien, claimed in two of his last three races, is a five time winner coming off a nice score at this level, but the switch from J. Hernandez to S, Carmona is nobody’s ideal of a positive jockey change. We suggest you include at least these two on your top line, along with anything else that catches your eye.


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Santa Anita Race 12: Post: 6:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 11-Severe Clear; 12-Ride Elbow Ranch.
Backups: 8-Ridegold.

Forecast: Severe Clear was given an educational run sprinting in her debut (finished sixth but galloped out far in front) and today will get serious on the stretch out. The daughter of Vronsky should handle the two turns just fine and offers excellent price value at or near her 10-1 morning line. She trained like she has ability prior to her debut and today would be a good spot to show it. Ride Elbow Ranch is stuck way outside but has rising numbers and the classic two-sprints-and-stretch-out pattern for M. Glatt (very strong stats with this angle). The switch to A. Fresu is another positive angle for the daughter of Clubhouse Ride.


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