The Lead:
Closing weekend of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet features a 2024 Kentucky Derby 1-2 rematch in the $1 million Stephen Foster. That's headliner to a 6-stakes card that leads into Sunday's meet finale program with a mandatory payout in the jackpot pick 6 that could be 7 figures if unsolved this week.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take part in the $7,500 Hit & Split promotion Saturday for Churchill Downs that includes a trio of multi-race bet sequences.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners SIERRA LEONE, MYSTIK DAN, MINDFRAME and HIT SHOW have won some of the game's biggest races. Grade 2 winners FIRST MISSION and SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING provide depth in the 7-horse field.
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Pace:
None of these are committed pacesetters, but tactical speed is obvious from FIRST MISSION, MINDFRAME and SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING. They're drawn 1-2-3 and should dictate the fractions in what should be a fair pace over 1-1/8 miles.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-FIRST MISSION: Set the tempo in last year's Foster and may do so again from the rail. Improving on that fourth-place finish seems a tall task given how much tougher this year's field is than last. He's freshened since April and coming off arguably a career-best effort in the Oaklawn Handicap over this distance. Won the Alysheba and missed by a nose in the Clark over a track he obviously likes.

#2-MINDFRAME: Back-to-back victories around 1 turn have opened a promising 4-year-old campaign for last year's late-blooming Belmont runner-up. Prevailed in the race of the year so far last out in the Churchill Downs Stakes to run his local mark to 2-for-2. As long as he doesn't end up between horses for an extended period, he should get a good trip under Irad Ortiz Jr. and rates a major threat.

#3-SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING: Chased First Mission in this race a year ago and held slightly better than that one for third. His 2025 form looks every bit as solid as he's canvassed the country in well-spotted fashion. This is the rare big bite of the apple that hasn't panned out for him in the past. Irad jumps to ride Mindframe, leaving brother Jose Ortiz the mount. Could be a no-lead, no-pass situation that's difficult to project a winning result.

#4-SIERRA LEONE: Late-running sort missed last year's Kentucky Derby by a nose in his only race over the track but more than made amends in winning the Breeders' Cup Classic. Absolutely flat return in the New Orleans Classic in March and returns 2-1/2 months later with a well-spaced workout tab that offers typical Chad Brown modesty in terms of times. Note his Risen Star win and BC Classic win came off similar breaks. Doesn't own any major BRIS late pace figure edge on the top players here to be able to spot them 6-8 lengths and blow past with assurance.

#5-MYSTIK DAN: The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up was poorly managed this winter with an unnecessary van ride from New Orleans to Los Angeles to compete in the 7-furlong Malibu. Then was sent to Gulfstream for the Pegasus World Cup off an effort that he got nothing out of at Santa Anita. Kenny McPeek recalibrated with some time off and sensibly returned on Derby Day at Oaklawn in a listed stakes to get this one back on the beam. He's responded with 2 straight good efforts, including a Churchill win in the local prep, the Blame, to improve to 3-for-4 over the track. He should get first run on the deeper closers, Sierra Leone and Hit Show, and likely saves every inch of ground under Brian Hernandez Jr.

#6-HIT SHOW: Enigmatic 2025 season saw him not pick up a hoof in the Santa Anita Handicap, but then storm home to win the Dubai World Cup in a nearly $7 million payday. Florent Geroux obviously fits him like a glove, winning 5 straight times when paired together and 6 of their last 7. Workout tab has been pinpoint perfect since returning to serious training in early May with an eye on this race. He won the 2024 Lukas Classic over this track and distance in September. More appealing price than Sierra Leone among the late-running threats.

#7-ASHCROFT: Bas Nicholls saddles this D. Wayne Lukas trainee that was new to the barn in May. Longshot will have sentimental support as Lukas was forced to step away from his 57-year career earlier this week due to serious health reasons. He's been off the board in all 4 stakes attempts and that likely continues.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
MINDFRAME is 6-6 in the exacta and has won both local starts (around 1 turn and 2).

Best Longshot Contender:
No big prices projected, but HIT SHOW figures to be his best price since 2023 and training up to a big effort.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$30 exacta box HIT SHOW with MINDFRAME ($60). $20 exacta box HIT SHOW and MYSTIK DAN ($40).