by Jeremy Plonk
June 26, 2025
There are a lot of ways to get to 21 when playing blackjack, but this Saturday’s Thoroughbred stakes lineup definitely is Ace-King worthy. When the Kentucky Derby winner, Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, Dubai World Cup winner and reigning Horses of the Year in both the US and Canada are all in action within a few hours, you have something special.
Let’s get on the fast track to Saturday -- and get to the picks.
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1:34 pm ET | Laurel Park | Race 4 | $125,000 Deputed Testamony Stakes
Local star #3 Post Time has outgrown the Laurel competition and should go to 9-for-9 over the track after finishing well enough last out vs. tougher in his 1-1/8 miles distance test.
2:05 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A | Race 3 | $125,000 Ashley T. Cole Stakes
With a clean break this time, #5 Senbei should be much more tactical in this turf sprint loaded with deeper closers and dirt horses.
3:24 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 5 | $150,000 Marine Stakes
On video replays, #4 Sedbury’s Ghost looks like a total goofball who is loaded with talent, and if he puts it together around 2 turns for the first time (his mama’s 3 wins all came at 1-1/16 miles), look out for this stakes debuter.
3:52 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 7 | $500,000 Fleur de Lis Stakes
It feels like a trap to bet against #3 Thorpedo Anna with 7 weeks to recover from her dull La Troienne effort, so I’ll just watch this one while giving #5 Taxed at least a back-up look in multi-race bets.
3:58 pm ET | Laurel Park | Race 9 | $125,000 Alma North Stakes
Fast and classy #8 Mystic Lake likely outsprints these, but conservative trainer Ned Allard bringing #7 Fiona’s Magic back from an extended break in this spot feels very intriguing as a travelmate for defending DeFrancis Dash winner Dean Delivers later on the card.
4:25 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 8 | $250,000 Tepin Stakes
#2 Something Stronger got the old school, sprint-to-route return prep from the layoff and launched a powerful rally that puts this $450,000 Justify filly as the price key to include with logicals #5 Lush Lips and #6 Vixen.
4:26 pm ET | Laurel Park | Race 10 | $125,000 Prince George’s County Stakes
Extremely difficult race to read with so many class drops and layoffs, while Johnny V. and Motion with #2 Trikari feels like a pitfall, let’s hope veteran #7 Wolfie’s Dynaghost got some use out of his last at Woodbine.
4:30 pm ET | Monmouth | Race 8 | $100,000 Tale of the Cat Stakes
As hot as it’s been on the east coast, an extremely firm turf course may play to the dirt speed of Jersey Derby runner-up #6 Cool Intentions in what could be his first try on grass.
4:32 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 7 | $150,000 Selene Stakes
#1 Somethinabouther never got a breather from the rail sprinting last time when just a nose short after leveling out beautifully and should excel with the return to a more modest pace around 2 turns for Brendan Walsh.
4:57 pm ET | Laurel Park | Race 11 | $175,000 DeFrancis Dash Stakes
Defending champ #7 Dean Delivers needed a few starts to show his best off the bench last year, while #5 Subrogate has run huge races second off the layoff in the past and is the play in that spot of his form cycle.
4:58 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 9 | $250,000 Kelly’s Landing Stakes
#3 Booth has been a machine, but it’s no secret the struggles of the Asmussen barn at Churchill this meeting, and classy Californian #1 Dr. Venkman can forge past at 6-1/2 furlongs with the extra 110 yards.
5:06 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 8 | $200,000 Highlander Stakes
Canada’s Champion Sprinter and reigning Horse of the Year #5 Patches O’Houlian meets arguably the toughest cast of his career, while the last 2 efforts from #1 My Boy Prince have identified him as a serious turf sprint threat to the favorite.
5:31 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 10 | $500,000 Wise Dan Stakes
#4 Mercante is in his eighth straight start in his form cycle, and while his form has been spectacular, a regression feels soon – pushing me to #5 Event Detail, who gets off the rail to relax more, a new rider and more favorable pace dynamics.
5:39 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 9 | $150,000 Dominion Day Stakes
#7 Essex Serpent was out of this world in his 4-year-old return allowance win May 10 and looks to be more brilliant than these with 1-1/8 miles still within his scope.
6:03 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 11 | $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes
#4 Sierra Leone figures to be overbet, providing value to the peaking #6 Hit Show, who I’ll be using with #2 Mindframe and #5 Mystik Dan in exactas.
6:11 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 12 | $175,000 Nassau Stakes
#4 Caitlinhergrtness seemed vulnerable in her May 31 return, but she ran even better at age 4 than she did during her sophomore campaign, so bring on the big-barn shippers for Brown, Motion, Walsh and Proctor.
6:32 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 12 | $250,000 American Derby
No question a step up in class, but the pace advantage #8 Freedom’s Not Free should enjoy is difficult to overlook with no excuses on the front end vs. deep closer #1 Reagan’s Wit and come-backing longshot threat #5 Minaret Station.
7:30 pm ET | Los Alamitos | Race 8 | $100,000 Los Alamitos Derby
Bob Baffert’s bid for a 9th straight win in this race includes 3 of the 5 entries, giving my nod to #2 Tiz Secure on pedigree for the 9-furlong trip over the faster-figured #5 Nevada Beach despite Juan Hernadez choosing the latter.
7:40 pm ET | Canterbury Park | Race 4 | $50,000 Brooks Fields Mile Stakes
#1 Kennebec has been most consistent amongst this group of very common rivals that frequently match up both in Minnesota and Arizona – but watch the tote here as not much separates the cast.
9:10 pm ET | Canterbury Park | Race 7 | $50,000 Canterbury Derby
Undefeated #3 Homie comes off a long layoff for high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli, but a spotty workout tab over the past month and 2-turn trip may open the door for #3 Smoken Boy on a class drop and in-form Texan #8 Canyon Streak (the tepid top pick).
9:40 pm ET | Canterbury Park | Race 8 | $50,000 Lady Canterbury Stakes
#3 Cupids Crush is well-drawn and perfect in 4 local turf starts, but I like that turf-mile specialist #4 Retired Kathy got a winning tune-up vs. easier on dirt for this and can win right back.