The biggest day outside of Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs is upon us and the Stephen Foster card on Saturday came up strong. The featured race attracted a star-studded group led by 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone and 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. The $1M Grade 1 goes as Race 11 and makes up the fourth leg of an all-stakes Pick 5 sequence that gets started with Race 8 at 4:25 eastern.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 8: Tepin
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Vixen
Backups: 5 Lush Lips; 8 Favor to You

Forecast: Both #5 Lush Lips and #6 Vixen have to be happy not to face star filly Nitrogen. Both exit the Edgewood (G2) on Kentucky Oaks (G1) Day where Nitrogen won easily and Lush Lips got her nose down at the wire to edge out Vixen for second. The public will probably side with Lush Lips since she had a poor start, which kept her from finding her normal forward position, but I prefer Vixen. The Vekoma filly has had her heart ripped out in back-to-back races in Kentucky by her stablemate, but has done little wrong of late outside of it. Her tactical speed should allow Irad Ortiz Jr. to find a favorable spot a few lengths off the lead. Expect her to finish the deal this time around.

#8 Favor to You is a wild card contender that is likely to get overlooked in the wagering. She has shown a nose for the wire in a pair of turf sprints out west this spring and should relish the added ground. I will use her as a backup along with the 9-5-ML favorite.


Race 9: Kelly’s Landing (G3)
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 1 Dr. Venkman; 3 Booth
Backups: None

Forecast: I lack creativity in the this 6.5-furlong sprint over the main track where #1 Dr. Venkman and #3 Booth appear a cut above the rest of this Grade 3 field. Booth enters his first stakes start under the twin spires on a 4-race winning streak. The speedy son of Mitole will be tough to get past if he makes a loose and lonely lead. My main concern is the final half furlong if the Steve Asmussen trainee takes even a little pressure in the early stages. He will have to be at his best to hold off #1 Dr. Venkman. The lightly-raced 5YO shook off the rust last out in the Triple Bend (G3) where he was caught 4-wide throughout and ran into a buzzsaw in Nysos. The California import moves inside and should be finishing full of run assuming jockey Antonio Fresu can avoid trouble from his rail draw.


Race 10: Wise Dan (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Fort Washington; 7 Brilliant Berti
Backups: 4 Mercante; 2 Lagynos

Forecast: The top three finishers in last month’s Arlington (G3) all return in this $500k two-turn event for older turf runners. #4 Mercante beat #7 Brilliant Berti on the square on May 31, but it was a race that lacked early speed and surprisingly it was Brian Hernandez Jr. going to the lead early with Brilliant Berti. The new tactics probably took the Noble Mission colt out of his game since he is accustomed to having a target, so I do prefer him to the often-overlooked Mercante. That said, I am going to try to run them all down with #8 Fort Washington. The Magic Cap Stables runner adapted nicely to the slow pace last out in the Dinner Party (G3) proving he is not race shape dependent. The son of War Front appears to be at the top of his game halfway through his 6YO campaign and the same perhaps could be said about his regular rider Junior Alvarado. Fort Washington should be finishing strong once again on the slight turnback in distance.


Race 11: Stephen Foster (G1)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1 First Mission
Backups: None

Forecast: The Stephen Foster came up as strong as it has in years with not only last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic and Kentucky Derby winners competing, but the nearly undefeated #2 Mindframe, $3.6M earner #3 Skippylongstocking, and a pair of Brad Cox trainees coming off big wins of their own. The pace is likely to be honest, but there is no true speed ball entered and two of the potential speeds are unlikely to duel themselves into defeat since it is rare to see Irad and Jose getting into battles on the front end with each other. This makes it difficult for me to get to #4 Sierra Leone since he is likely to go off under 3-1 and needs to he can beat this type of field without a setup. Same is true for #6 Hit Show. He is not only up against it from a race shape perspective, but also a talent one.

Mindframe, Skippylongstocking, and #5 Mystik Dan should all get favorable trips assuming they break well, but I much prefer #1 First Mission. The son of Street Sense is still slightly under the radar since he lacks a marquee win, but he has been at the top of his game in 2025. The Godolphin homebred missed by a neck in the Razorback (G3) off the bench, but that was a day where speed was absolutely dominant in Arkansas. He ran well to finish third and then put it altogether in the Oaklawn (G2) in mid-April. Trainer Brad Cox has pointed to this spot for months and his trainee appears to be coming into the race in the best form of his career. I love his chances.


Race 12: American Derby
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Freedom’s Not Free
Backups: 1 Reagan’s Wit; 2 Flying Mohawk; 5 Minaret Station; 6 Native Runner

Forecast: The American Derby concludes the card and it also lacks runners that do their best running on the front end. This should benefit #8 Freedom’s Not Free. The $300k son of Omaha Beach races outside of California for the first time after rattling off a pair of victories against softer stakes groups at Santa Anita Park. The Mark Glatt trainee stalked just off the pace before pulling away last out in the Cinema, but that was sitting off a sprinter stretching out for the first time. With no other speed signed on, Antonio Fresu should be able to cruise to the lead and set a moderate early tempo. Hopefully, he has enough left late to hold off his main rivals!