It is Closing Day of the Spring Meet at Churchill Downs and not only does that mean the customary mandatory payouts in all wagers, but a historical takeout in the Derby City 6. A pool of $1.41M will be forced out, which is not too far away off Churchill Downs record carryover of $1.69M back in on November 18, 2005. Expect several million to be bet into today’s sequence that includes five stake races and concludes with a MSW over the sod.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 6: Bashford Manor
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Password
Backups: None

Forecast: I expect most horseplayers to play it “safe” in this 2YO stake for the males. Not only is there limited data on the seven starters, but it is the first leg of a huge sequence. Therefore, I will get aggressive singling #7 Password. The Peter Blum homebred ran huge on debut for a barn that has had far more success over the years with second-time starters.

The son of Uncle Mo was beaten to the wire by #5 Comport on June 1, but the result does not tell the whole story. Comport ran well in the 5.5-furlong dash battling early with heavy favorite #3 Cannoneer and putting that colt away late, but Password broke poorly from the disadvantageous rail and had some traffic issues right after the start. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee showed the ability to deal with adversity coming with a strong late run to split the two speeds. I appreciate the mental toughness out of the box and jockey Flavien Prat had a ton of horse left after the wire. Hopefully, the outside draw allows for a better break from the gate!


Race 7: Debutante
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Color Comin’ In; 1 Essential Coffee; 4 Americathegreat; # Light Won Up; 2 Vajra
Backups: None

Forecast: The female counterpart to the Bashford Manor came up strong with a number of impressive debut runners, as well as the pricey #4 Americathegreat who ran a big second from off the pace to kick off her career last month. I like #8 Color Comin’ In most in this competitive 6-furlong affair for the ladies. The Norm Casse trainee broke a bit slow in her first start, but recovered nicely and put in a very strong move to get the jump on the closers and win relatively easily in the end. A move forward should make her tough, but she will need it since there are plenty of others that make fit including, #1 Essential Coffee, the aforementioned Americathegreat, California import #3 Light Won Up, and even first-time starter #2 Vajra. I will use several after singling in the first leg.


Race 8: Hanshin
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Judge Miller; 8 Cagliostro; 4 Saudi Crown
Backups: 1 Banishing; 7 Will Take It

Forecast: Some horseplayers may opt to lean on 9-5-ML favorite #4 Saudi Crown or #1 Banishing in this one-mile excursion over the main track and understandably so. Saudi Crown is 7 for 15, has a win in his only start over this surface, and generally has been successful when he drops into these listed stakes. Banishing has had a great start to 2025 earning $836k already, including a runner-up effort to Mindframe in a fantastic edition of the Churchill Downs (G1) on Derby Day, and gets some class relief off a full month’s rest. Their cases are solid, but they are bit tough to trust. Saudi Crown has to prove he can be close to his best at one-turn, while Banishing could be over the top after a long first half to the campaign.

I landed on #2 Judge Miller on top. The lightly-raced 5YO ships out of California for the first time for trainer Mark Glatt. The regally-bred son of Curlin has always been well backed at the windows and has delivered in 3 of 6 starts to date, including last out off an 11-month layoff when he was full of run late besting a field of allowance foes by a half-length in the end. Jockey Antonio Fresu had a hard time pulling up Judge Miller suggesting he has plenty left in the tank. Hopefully, he shows that this afternoon.

I also am going to give another shot to #8 Cagliostro since he has finally been gelded. The Cherie DeVaux trainee always had physical talent, but struggled to put it altogether mentally. Maybe the ultimate equipment change will do the trick. #7 Will Take It needs to prove he can stand the class hike, but comes into the Hanshin in the best form of his career. He should provide strong value within the sequence.


Race 9: Anchorage Overnight
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Pin Up Betty
Backups: None

Forecast: My second stand within the sequence comes in the final turf stake of the spring meet where #7 Pin Up Betty looks like a bit of a standout. The Three Diamonds Farm homebred has done little wrong to start her 4YO season for trainer Mike Maker. The Constitiution filly came off the bench in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) and lost by a neck at odds of 11-1 before bouncing back with a win going away in the Mint Julep (G3). She is 3 for 5 over this course and should have no issue getting the extra 1/16th of a mile. All in on the 8-5-favorite!


Race 10: Maxfield
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Ancient World; 2 Captain Cook; 5 Retribution; 6 Smoken Wicked
Backups: 10 Verifire; 8 Flood Zone; 13 Furio

Forecast: This year’s Maxfield is one of the toughest races I have handicapped this meet. The morning line favorites #8 Flood Zone, #2 Captain Cook, and #10 Verifire are all very tough reads. Flood Zone won the Gotham (G3) going away against a modest group before a poor run overseas at Meydan. Captain Cook is probably a sprinter, so the cutback is great, but one has to wonder how he will bounce back after two tries going long against graded stakes foes. Verifire has been very good, but against soft competition out of town. How will he respond in a larger field with far more talent than he has encountered thus far?

My lack of confident answers to these questions has me using several including lukewarm top choice #1 Ancient World. The rail draw is a concern for a horse that has struggled to get out of the gates well, but he ran better than looks in his third-place finish in the Chick Lang last month. If Luis Saez can work out a clean trip from the rail, 12-1 could look like a gift.


Race 11:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Good Game; 10 Straight Forward; 4 Massarat; 11 Miss Pharaoh
Backups: 2 Twolatebabydoll; 3 Joyous Song

Forecast: Things do not get much easier in the finale where a full field of fillies and mares in search of their first win will travel 9-furlongs over the Churchill Downs sod. I was hopeful this was a race where I had a strong opinion since very few horseplayers will go thin to close out the sequence, but unfortunately that is not the case. #5 Good Game can run and is my top pick, but I am not in love with the way Florent Geroux fits this Game Winner filly. #10 Straight Forward is probably the one that provides me the best payout if I am lucky enough to get to the closing leg.

Best of luck!